dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Its probably going to hammer most of the region this run...save litchfieldlibation land and the south coast. Yeah, Its a hugger this run, This may in the end be the solution we end with but there is a lot of time left and many solutions still on the table, But the cutter solution is waning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Its probably going to hammer most of the region this run...save litchfieldlibation land and the south coast. yeah, looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 feet and feet of snow? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Its probably going to hammer most of the region this run...save litchfieldlibation land and the south coast. There'll be like 6 inches of snow, but Joe will look the other way and then give the Bridgeport observer another pass on the obs and fake obs as he scrambles to find the one hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 PRetty nice run...that's cutting it close synoptically though. H85 low cuts across NJ and then just south of SNE...you gotta be careful because it can go to hell (from an all snow perspective) pretty quick if that tracks a smidge west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 nice run on the GFS.. pretty quiet here.. guess is still 6+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 nice run on the GFS.. pretty quiet here.. guess is still 6+ days away. Yeah these OP solutions are just for weenie fodder. They really do not mean much at all. If its still flirting around the coastline in another 36 hours, then it would be time to start taking it more seriously. There's some decent synoptic looking features in place just prior to the storm, but those are not guaranteed to be the same in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah these OP solutions are just for weenie fodder. They really do not mean much at all. If its still flirting around the coastline in another 36 hours, then it would be time to start taking it more seriously. There's some decent synoptic looking features in place just prior to the storm, but those are not guaranteed to be the same in 2 days. at least something wintry to track, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 PRetty nice run...that's cutting it close synoptically though. H85 low cuts across NJ and then just south of SNE...you gotta be careful because it can go to hell (from an all snow perspective) pretty quick if that tracks a smidge west. Agreed, but the mother-of-all-features is present and it's been fairly consistent: a decent high pressure in SE Canada (actually this is kind of a banana high, no?). In that feature I trust; suppression I have seen, but it's difficult to kick a strong Canadian high in the nuts. I know you were loathe to even create a thread for this event, but, at the very least, a storm of some sort has been consistently present on the models for a few days now, and at this point I think the game is fairly afoot. Kind of a classic setup, climatology-wise. Low rides up along the southern half of the Apps or thereabouts, jumps to the coast because a cold high in SE Canada says so. I want the Euro to say it, but for now, this is decent enough to perk one's ears. It's old magic, but good magic. I say why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 00z GFS ensmeble mean is pretty awesome looking liek the past several runs. Pretty much right just inside the benchmark with sufficient cold air for most of the region. South coast and Cape would have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 00z GFS ensmeble mean is pretty awesome looking liek the past several runs. Pretty much right just inside the benchmark with sufficient cold air for most of the region. South coast and Cape would have issues. Perfect track for me....naked twister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Perfect track for me....naked twister. Right hand very red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro caves it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro caves it appears Yeah nice shift east. We now have a secondary...no real surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's still going to get messy I think post hr 150, but at hr 150, it's snowing across a good chunk of SNE even appears into BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's still going to get messy I think post hr 150, but at hr 150, it's snowing across a good chunk of SNE even appears into BOS. Yeah def a good step toward what we'd want...even verbatim if that was the final solution, it would be a nice chunk of snow on the front end with a bunch of IP/ZR after...esp in the interior. But again, these OP solutions at this range are just entertainment...seeing a general trend develop in our favor though the past 36 hours is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's still going to get messy I think post hr 150, but at hr 150, it's snowing across a good chunk of SNE even appears into BOS. I'll be skiing outlaws at the house. Glad to see I may be able to ski without suntan lotion or a raincoat this year. Huge sigh of relief in ski country come Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah def a good step toward what we'd want...even verbatim if that was the final solution, it would be a nice chunk of snow on the front end with a bunch of IP/ZR after...esp in the interior. But again, these OP solutions at this range are just entertainment...seeing a general trend develop in our favor though the past 36 hours is a plus. Lets hope the shifts are more subtle from here on out. Wasn't there one at the start of December that went from a cutter to a snowstorm to a glance? Looks pretty good, Chicagoans can come out of the cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think we can be confident on secondary development along the coastal baroclinic zone ... the previous Euro track up the spine of the Apps was a little unrealistic in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think we can be confident on secondary development along the coastal baroclinic zone ... the previous Euro track up the spine of the Apps was a little unrealistic in my opinion. Track through the Apps is liek self destruction too...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well....winter is almost upon us. The mean track drops progressively se with the next big one. Even if it shifted nw later on the gradual slide se puts us in good shape for January. Finally it appears to be here?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nice little White Christmas event on the Euro...answering Kevin's dreams among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The holiday season has me losing all track of time. This is still 5.5 to 6 days away. Lol. Lots can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You know things are looking up when you can't tell the difference between Saki's and Kevin's posts...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You know things are looking up when you can't tell the difference between Saki's and Kevin's posts...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro ensembles definitely look a little messy for SNE. Low tracks from SE VA right up the coast into srn CT and SE MA. Still over 6 days away, so I expect some more wiggles east or west with this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro ensembles definitely look a little messy for SNE. Low tracks from SE VA right up the coast into srn CT and SE MA. Still over 6 days away, so I expect some more wiggles east or west with this low. Consensus of guidance is a front end dump at least. I'm fine with that and we'll see if we can at least hang onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Consensus of guidance is a front end dump at least. I'm fine with that and we'll see if we can at least hang onto it. Yeah hopefully. If it moves west just a bit, then we are out of luck, but that's a good high to the north so a front end start with snow is certainly there. It also has the look of a high thickness snow event too with temps in the 850-700 range getting borderline, but still cold enough. So 546 thicknesses could still snow given low levels should be cold, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We've moved twds concensus of an all snow event. We can't say anyone is surprised...Winter is locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z GFS is snow to rain just like the EC ENS...but why even look? It's not all snow, so toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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