Wmsptwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 EURO says game on along I 81.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z NAM stil has big storm....wide right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z NAM stil has big storm....wide right though. NAM beyond 36hrs is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM beyond 36hrs is garbage. It showing the ingredients is good. Very good. But yeah paying attention to it other than ingredients beyond 48 is pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS is well west and brings heavy precip back to the region. It s considerably warmer than the Euro though and can't see if it's be cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z GFS is well west and brings heavy precip back to the region. It s considerably warmer than the Euro though and can't see if it's be cold enough for snow. Closes the storm off at 500mb and goes negative. Above freezing at 850 from I-81 S&E. But it is most definitely west. Canadian at 18z came further west as well from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 18z GFS is well west and brings heavy precip back to the region. It s considerably warmer than the Euro though and can't see if it's be cold enough for snow. ? The 0.50" line isn't even into Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ? The 0.50" line isn't even into Harrisburg. .72 at MDT .62 at THV 1.25 at LNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 .72 at MDT .62 at THV 1.25 at LNS What station is THV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 THV is York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What station is THV? THV is York. Yeah, the station is about 6-7 miles west of York. They get some epic radiational cooling nights out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, the station is about 6-7 miles west of York. They get some epic radiational cooling nights out there. FYI---THV stands for Thomasville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 FYI---THV stands for Thomasville. Yep, Thomasville, go out on 30 from York and it's about 6-7 miles west of York. I grew up in York. There used to be a drag racing strip out there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Closes the storm off at 500mb and goes negative. Above freezing at 850 from I-81 S&E. But it is most definitely west. Canadian at 18z came further west as well from what I see. One thing i've been watching is the 500 ridge axis out west, which was something CTP mentioned in their long-term this morning. Traditional interior C-PA snowstorm track would have the axis through Idaho. Models have been running a broader ridge with more of a western/central Montana axis. Thus, models don't have the alignment ideal for central and supporting low track and best qpf being just to the east. The I-81 corridor and just east of that seem to be the best place to see heavier precip and potentially a significant elevation dependent snowfall. That's not to say we can't get precip into the central JST/AOO/UNV corridor, but the focus right now looks a bit to the east. I will say this is not far from being a significant wet snow threat to most but it looks like it will go just a little bit too wide to heavily affect say west of I-99. Overall in my opinion, this is kind of reminiscent of the Nov 14/15th, 1995 central PA snow bomb... which if my memory serves me correctly is probably the last time we had a November nor'easter deliver a widespread significant snowfall in central PA. Heaviest snow accums on that one focused over the Laurels, NE PA and southern NY with several inches from Harrisburg west and over 10" in AOO/UNV. Off the Laurels to the west, Pit saw little snow as they were too far west. You'll note though, the farther west 500mb alignment for that storm With such a dynamic storm being progged, whoever ultimately gets lucky and sees the best QPF coexist with a snow friendly column could see significant rates. The Novemeber 95 storm I brought up was one of three storms referenced in a paper authored by Richard Grumm from CTP and I believe one of the BGM mets (Nicoasia) dealing with intense mesoscale banding. Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I know Thomasville well, being into Sprint car racing my dad used to work with Greg Hodnett we'd be down there quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very true Mag...I've been saying if you are along i 81 especially in Poconos looks out. Not a classic track at all for true central PA. Also, when you get the lighter rates in those areas, it's less likely to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oh baby, the EURO puts the smack down on most of us. I get like 9"+ this run in Ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oh baby, the EURO puts the smack down on most of us. I get like 9"+ this run in Ship. Even if you cut those numbers in half, that would be a nice snowfall for early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even if you cut those numbers in half, that would be a nice snowfall for early November. Give me any accumulating snow and i'll be pumped but, now with euro being so consistent I am hoping for 6" at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NWS leaning EURO PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE 04/00Z ECWMF/ECX AND HPC GUIDANCE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD AN ECMWF-BASED SOLUTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A DEEP CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. Also here is my latest impact map. Still even tonight, less than 72 hours away from a potential major nor'easter, models still are all over the place. We have the NAM, which basically does not effect the coast at all and the UKMET, which is ridiculously far east of its previous run. That it is very hard to believe. Then the GFS shifted west tonight and brings precipitation back west of I-95. The GGEM/Canadian model is the most west of any model so far tonight with snow in the big cities of Washington, DC; Baltimore, MD; Harrisburg, PA and Albany, NY. This makes a forecast for this storm very difficult. But, since the GFS and GGEM came west and the EURO has been consistently west, we have decided to shift are impacts west on this update. No matter what coastal flooding, heavy rain and windy conditions will impact the coastline, we know that for sure. The question is how far west will the precipitation make it and how much cold air will there be to work with? Right now our thinking is there will be mainly rain east of I-95 until north of Massachusetts, then snow will be possible up there. The coast will get hit with heavy rains of 1-3 inches and winds gusting to 55+ mph. Also the coast will see some flooding due to high surf and surge. West of I-95 will be a narrow corridor, which on our map is in pink, this is an area will rain will go over to snow and may accumulate a few slushy inches. Northwest of the rain/snow area should be mainly all snow or a brief period of rain to start. This area stands the best chance of picking up over 3 inches of heavy wet snowfall. The storm would start Wednesday evening in the southern part of the region and make it to the Northeast by mid-day Thursday. All in all we are about 70% confident on this forecast right now as still many factors exist that could change the forecast significantly. We will continue to watch this storm closely and monitor the trends in the models and hopefully by tomorrow there will be enough agreement we can release full details. Stay tuned. ~Brisko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Give me any accumulating snow and i'll be pumped but, now with euro being so consistent I am hoping for 6" at least. How did surface temps look on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How did surface temps look on this run? Colder. 32 line comes into southern pa. So likely 32 32.5 kinda stuff. Should be sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Here is the 0Z snowfall output. Enjoy. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We have a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This video is so funny. A little but of fowl language but, go watch and have a good laugh. http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JmH56ypfFeA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS and EURO still in disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 6z GFS considerably colder than earlier runs, even brings wet snow to the coast. Lots and lots of CAD too apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS and EURO still in disagreement. Not by this much tho: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=444271358941894&set=a.185845971451102.36096.184607858241580&type=1&theater WTF is that guy talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Not by this much tho: https://www.facebook...&type=1 WTF is that guy talking about? No idea what he sees (or is on for that matter!) Nothing supports that snow map at this time! I do think either the GFS or EURO will "blink" this upcoming run. I have a feeling the GFS will at least tick more west. Hopefully the consistent EURO continues its snowy solution for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 what an exciting couple weeks of weather. If this continues all winter, i'll probablly need meds by spring! don't look, but i think the sun is trying to peak out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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