Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Could it just be euro is getting better info as storm gets within 72 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How much we looking at crazyblizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ehhh....i went from maybe 1" to nothing...not a big deal back this way. patiently waiting for a real snowstorm (6"+) havent seen one of those in a long time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 First call. BTW I hate the models...The EURO is in a dark corner right now with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Paul Kocin's coming to campus in two weeks for a guest lecture. Can't wait. I will definitely be there! Hopefully we have snow on the ground at that point. It's kind of a dilemma, though...while I want the Euro to be right for central PA, it would be devastating for the Jersey Shore and nobody wants to see that happen. Don't get your hopes up too much... we're having some problems with the NWS regarding his travel. We should have a definitive answer tomorrow (via email). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The NAM doesn't even hit like anywhere. Either the nAM is the worst model ever on this is going to be the biggest waste of time for everyone on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah you're right, NAM a miss for just about everyone. This is getting ugly...what did Euro Ens. look like? Guessing not good since they aren't posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah you're right, NAM a miss for just about everyone. This is getting ugly...what did Euro Ens. look like? Guessing not good since they aren't posted. They are a bit west of op. Barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Not good....I guess I can let this one roll off my back though, It's November and IPT was never the bullseye. Onto the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS says turn off the lights on your way out!! Nice snow for parts of SNE though. Looks like a GFS coup this time fellas! Things obviously can change, but that would be a lot to change within 48 hours of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS says turn off the lights on your way out!! Nice snow for parts of SNE though. Looks like a GFS coup this time fellas! Things obviously can change, but that would be a lot to change within 48 hours of storm. It was just way west of there last run it hasn't scored anything. If a model was to score the coup it would be the nam as it was never close to showing anything. But we still have seen change up till 24hrs out to lets see 0Z first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Eastern, I would keep watching it at your position. Also, our southeast friends and Voyager. As for the State College, Williamsport and Altoona crowd, any shot is probaby done. We we're barely in the hit zone for the old Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Eh I'm glad this storm appears to be much weaker. The coastal regions don't deserve nor need a strong low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm with you on that one canderson. Sometimes it's not worth a little snow. The media is underdoing this with campaign coverage...it is a disaster for those people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the way i look at it, i can't control the weather, but if i could i would give up a couple winters for those folks in coastal areas, god knows they don't need another beating. our resources in those areas are completley taxed. i pray hard for those people. think about about our friends on this forum whose lives are forever changed. edit- i may make a road trip if they get smacked with another storm, i figure i may have something to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM stays east and weak! At this point that's great news for coastal areas though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM stays east and weak! At this point that's great news for coastal areas though! The NAM bombs out into SNE. This is the ultimate model failure for this storm. JB is probably crying himself to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Lol ur right dude...the thing backed in. These models have been horrendous with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This was the worst. lol https://twitter.com/i/#!/BigJoeBastardi/media/slideshow?url=pic.twitter.com%2F7TFBUGOy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I hope this isn't a sign for things to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I hope this isn't a sign for things to come... Long winter ahead man, models trolling and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM crushing 95 is hilarious. Seriously, that's the funniest thing I've seen model-wise in a year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z GFS so east it doesn't even bring rain into PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Stick a fork in this one...at least no reason to wait for euro...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am really not up for this BS again from the models this winter. They sucked last year as well. If the models were right at day 2-4 we would have had 100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I hope this isn't a sign for things to come... I am really not up for this BS again from the models this winter. They sucked last year as well. If the models were right at day 2-4 we would have had 100". It's pretty early yet, and on the heels of this event is a pattern shift and a significant warm up anyways. We we're already kinda playing the fringe game (esp true central) with the 500mb western ridge situated further east than ideal for C-PA and since models today (12z-5th thru 0z-6th) have made a major shift toward a more progessive, much weaker coastal system, it appears that most if not all of us C-PAers are gonna end up with a non event barring another last minute shift back the other way. I concur about this being a good trend for the stricken coastal areas, this had been forecast to be a very strong nor'easter capable of significant beach erosion and coastal flooding even without Sandy's destructive impacts. It would certainly be a better thing for their sake for this thing to glance as the Mid-Atl/NE will have much more tranquil and warmer weather moving in by the weekend and probably lasting several days as the NAO gets to even and a trough and unsettled weather dives back into the west with a tanking PNA. This storm is back to reality really with the usual uncertainty with timing and phasing to try to fire a storm up in the right place. Don't forget about the computer forecasts leading up to Sandy, they were probably about as good as you'll ever see from several days out. And thank goodness they were, could you imagine had the models not locked in on Sandy veering back into the Northeast until like 2 or even 3 days out? Also don't forget about the blocking that was in place to make that happen, because we may see it again when the season really starts counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 oh boy, r-ville here we go again.. definitly not the coldest night of the year as the TV mets said it was going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah, our NWS forecasted low was 25 this morning and got down to only 31. Interesting developments with the storm...let's see what the 12z suite has to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not sure why it's going to be interesting...models are as east as they have ever been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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