EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro still locked in. Pretty similar to 12Z. GFS is going to get a good old fashion butt whoopin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 How much snow for our area easternwx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 How much snow for our area easternwx? Don't have any way of telling cause not snow map till Accuweathers at like 230. But we get about .4-.6" qpf so probably 3-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro is east....well east of 12z and 0z from yesterday. Moved toward 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Can't argue with that considering its early november. And it will rain on the majority of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro is east....well east of 12z and 0z from yesterday. Moved toward 0z GFS. Wrong, completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12Z 0Z \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 South Central gets 6-9", SE 7-11" and yes wmsptwx you get 4-6". Snowy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 South Central gets 6-9", SE 7-11" and yes wmsptwx you get 4-6". Snowy run I don't believe this works out good for us. In the wet snow moderate wind kind of way 925 winds of 100 with plenty of mixing potential - gonna change the oil in the genny a bit later and make sure the little red can are filled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 South Central gets 6-9", SE 7-11" and yes wmsptwx you get 4-6". Snowy run Axis of heaviest runs right up I-81 and there's not much once you get back to AOO/UNV. Def cold enough for snow, though maybe a bit marginal in places ratio wise. My rough take on the run is probably more of a widespread 4-8" (with highest totals at elevation) all things considered. Seems to be taking a more eastern PA favored track for sure. Gonna need to make the turn up the coast earlier (say inside Hatteras/ thru far eastern NC) to really get true central involved good. Yet another deep run pressure wise getting to about 980. Also, it's nice seeing the full 0z euro run before 3am again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro is east....well east of 12z and 0z from yesterday. Moved toward 0z GFS. Please stop. You're going to work on people's nerves if you keep posting wrong info all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Please stop. You're going to work on people's nerves if you keep posting wrong info all winter. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Please stop. You're going to work on people's nerves if you keep posting wrong info all winter. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Sorry looked east to me. Here is some accurate info though,..lol. GFS has been pretty consistent with it's track, just a little too far east for us CPAers. Meaningful precip gets to Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Sorry looked east to me. Here is some accurate info though,..lol. GFS has been pretty consistent with it's track, just a little too far east for us CPAers. Meaningful precip gets to Poconos. It's the "well east" thing. That's all. Think about what you are saying when you post and how it might be taken. Just saying so you don't get any grief. GFS is consistent but so is the Euro so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Sorry looked east to me. Here is some accurate info though,..lol. GFS has been pretty consistent with it's track, just a little too far east for us CPAers. Meaningful precip gets to Poconos. From the NWS Mt Holly discussion...just saying....please read http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off THE 04/00Z ECMWF IS SUBTLY FURTHER EAST IN ITS APPROACH, AND THEN IT LIES WITHIN THE RELATIVELY NARROW RANGE OF ITS TWO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR ITS TIMING IF YOU SUBSTITUTE "SUBTLY SLOWER" (THAT`S NOT A MIDNIGHT SHIFT MISTAKE) FOR "SUBTLY FURTHER EAST." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM has 969 bomb east of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's the "well east" thing. That's all. Think about what you are saying when you post and how it might be taken. Just saying so you don't get any grief. GFS is consistent but so is the Euro so far. From the NWS Mt Holly discussion...just saying....please read http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off THE 04/00Z ECMWF IS SUBTLY FURTHER EAST IN ITS APPROACH, AND THEN IT LIES WITHIN THE RELATIVELY NARROW RANGE OF ITS TWO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR ITS TIMING IF YOU SUBSTITUTE "SUBTLY SLOWER" (THAT`S NOT A MIDNIGHT SHIFT MISTAKE) FOR "SUBTLY FURTHER EAST." This is why I don't too often analyze on the board what the models are showing. Sure I look at them, but I defer to the trained meteorologists and knowledgeable amateurs for analysis and reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM has 969 bomb east of the benchmark. Precip goes back pretty far west but warm. I think the bias is for it to be warm but I am not sure about that. 977 is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This is why I don't too often analyze on the board what the models are showing. Sure I look at them, but I defer to the trained meteorologists and knowledgeable amateurs for analysis and reasoning. During storm threats I swear that nearly every night around GGEM time someone posts a map and description of changes with the previous days GGEM run thinking its the new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Precip goes back pretty far west but warm. I think the bias is for it to be warm but I am not sure about that. 977 is crazy. Yea GGEM has been the deepest model of the bunch as usual. And look at the high too.. thats a fairly strong one at 1036mb. Sets up a heck of a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z Euro is nice. Very similar to yesterday's 12z Euro, and even a bit colder overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z Euro is nice. Very similar to yesterday's 12z Euro, and even a bit colder overall. EURO is colder at 850. Looks like 0 -> -2 for all of Central PA through the event. That plus precip falling at night and decent dynamics would yield at least advisory types snow, as per 12z EURO. But this is just my opinion and not gospel by any means. Climo shows that accumulating snow has happened during early November in: 1987, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2003 & 2009 so what the EURO shows isn't outside the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z Euro is nice. Very similar to yesterday's 12z Euro, and even a bit colder overall. EURO is colder at 850. Looks like 0 -> -2 for all of Central PA through the event. That plus precip falling at night and decent dynamics would yield at least advisory types snow, as per 12z EURO. But this is just my opinion and not gospel by any means. Climo shows that accumulating snow has happened during early November in: 1987, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, 2003 & 2009 so what the EURO shows isn't outside the realm of possibility. how far back does precip go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Ian said places in south pa northeast of Hagerstown get 8-12" this run. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 how far back does precip go? As modeled, back to about State College-Bellefonte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 how far back does precip go? Ian said places in south pa northeast of Hagerstown get 8-12" this run. Yes please. Once again, the EURO is consistent GIF of 12z track from HR 00 -> HR 120: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wait Euro still showing snow? Time to get down the shovels. Gonna be fun reading you guys' thoughts the next few days. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wait Euro still showing snow? Time to get down the shovels. Gonna be fun reading you guys' thoughts the next few days. Bring it! One other piece of interesting information. The 12z GFS ensembles now show 8 of the 12 members with a sub 980 low. Looks like a growing consensus for at least a strong coastal storm. A stronger storm might also be able to wind up closer to the coast and wrap in some colder air. http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf090.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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