Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not sure why it's going to be interesting...models are as east as they have ever been. Not so much interesting snow-wise back in our area, but just seeing how the models are handling this complex phase and placement of the storm. It was remarkable how well they nailed Sandy but this storm is presenting the models with a much harder situation to resolve. I was surprised to see the 6z GFS so far west compared to its last few runs and the ensembles moved too. Maybe it was a blip, maybe not. We'll see in ~2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the way its been going, wanna bet a $1 its west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 the way its been going, wanna bet a $1 its west? The way the GFS has been moving the storm around, I'm as undecided on where the 12z will be as I am about the election! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The way the GFS has been moving the storm around, I'm as undecided on where the 12z will be as I am about the election! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 As expected, the new SREFs moved decently westward from 03z: 03z total precip: 09z total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That looks like a pretty decent shift from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Significant Westward shift in the 12z NAM...even gets those near Harrisburg into the action. That is a far cry from the 00z run which had not even a drop along the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Significant Westward shift in the 12z NAM...even gets those near Harrisburg into the action. That is a far cry from the 00z run which had not even a drop along the coast! so, next bet for a $1, does it go back East next run or shift again West......step to the table and place your bets....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah, our NWS forecasted low was 25 this morning and got down to only 31. Interesting developments with the storm...let's see what the 12z suite has to show. 25ºF when I left the house this morning down here. Looks like most surrounding State College stations on Mesowest ended up between 24-26ºF, must've been urban heat island in town FTW. And yea it figures this storm once again is taking a crack at coming back westward, although it's still a good bit weaker than models had it a couple days ago. 12z NAM kinda looks similar to the overnight Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Changes in NAM precip 00z - 06z - 12z runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 O/T, but a nice amount of snow still up in the Laurels: http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o82/yankeesrule4ever/IMG_20121106_102313.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS still a ways east....a little late in the game for meaningful shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Man the 12z GFS is much colder than the 6z run and gives PHL and crapload of snow. Same for Allentown - easily 6-9" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Man the 12z GFS is much colder than the 6z run and gives PHL and crapload of snow. Same for Allentown - easily 6-9" on this run. Yep. Looks like this suite is all coming westward now. I'm sitting in the office with an on-air met who works weekends in Harrisburg and he is talking on the phone (presumably to the weekday met) telling them to make the increased snow chances the headline story in the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yep. Looks like this suite is all coming westward now. I'm sitting in the office with an on-air met who works weekends in Harrisburg and he is talking on the phone (presumably to the weekday met) telling them to make the increased snow chances the headline story in the news. i'm starting to get interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Any word on the RGEM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Just saw RGEM a little too far east to hit anyone reading this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GEM is even closer to the coast with precip making it all the way back to central PA. Granted not much precip, but some none the less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yep. Looks like this suite is all coming westward now. I'm sitting in the office with an on-air met who works weekends in Harrisburg and he is talking on the phone (presumably to the weekday met) telling them to make the increased snow chances the headline story in the news. Mind mentioning who you are sitting with? Interesting take on things. It only needs to jog 90 or so miles to get MDT into decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Mind mentioning who you are sitting with? Interesting take on things. It only needs to jog 90 or so miles to get MDT into decent snow. Dan from ABC. I'd rather not mention his last name...hopefully you'll know who I am talking about if you watch ABC. He's a great met and knows what he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Even KMDT is forecast about 2.5" per the 12z GFS. Reading is at 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dan from ABC. I'd rather not mention his last name...hopefully you'll know who I am talking about if you watch ABC. He's a great met and knows what he is talking about. Yep, i know who you mean. They should get him to replace the other guy.(B.T.) Dan and Eric are the 2 good ones, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Mind mentioning who you are sitting with? Interesting take on things. It only needs to jog 90 or so miles to get MDT into decent snow. yeah, this thing keeps making minor lil shifts, not really what i was expecting, honestly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Giant change in the Canadian: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 A little more west and a 1-3" can't be out of the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dan from ABC. I'd rather not mention his last name...hopefully you'll know who I am talking about if you watch ABC. He's a great met and knows what he is talking about. I know exactly who you mean. He's my favorite (and only) forecaster I really watch on 27. I like sauss wish he had the weeknight duties. Oh well. Thanks. Euro will be interesting to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 These models suck. Watch it go back to a blizzard at 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 These models suck. Watch it go back to a blizzard at 0z lol one thing ive noticed is how much they struggle with multiple shortwaves... GFS is the worst with this... with this set up when the energy for this storm has developed weaker, the stronger trailing shortwave has helped push it more out to sea... when stronger, it has come closer to the coast... anyone else notice this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 IMHO - the east jog was the aberration. The models went into crisis mode trying to figure out the interplay between the three distinct vortex's within the trough. Since the 6z and 12z suites say - go west young man - this portends a correction that is more than just a minor "hiccup" - the strength of the system ought to show strengthening at the baroclinic zone off of N Carolina (something the 18z and to a lesser extent the 0z disregarded). The HP in the Atl is stationary and strong. Building HP in the lee of the departing system up in Canadian Maritime region is prog'd by OPC to become a 1030+ - more than enough to bolster the overall ridge/block. Therefore, expect the coastal solution to stand in from here on in. Just MHO of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 one thing ive noticed is how much they struggle with multiple shortwaves... GFS is the worst with this... with this set up when the energy for this storm has developed weaker, the stronger trailing shortwave has helped push it more out to sea... when stronger, it has come closer to the coast... anyone else notice this? i didn't, good observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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