Jmister Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Any SREF updates? 21z SREFs will be out before 9. 15z vs 09z precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What's the timing for this event? I sense a little westward 0z movement. I think last night's east job was the blip, not the norm. We saw it a lot last year the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 SREFs went the wrong way then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 SREFs went the wrong way then. I'd be willing to bet they look more like 09z next run. As for timing, looking mostly Wed afternoon/evening I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Radar looks quite interesting down in nc right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Maybe it will jog west, or it could shift east again. The gradient is insane, and often the precip shield can be more expansive than modeled and where banding sets up can make all the difference. Who knows how it will unfold, but this is the most interesting event we have had since last October 2011 so no complaints either way. It is not out of the question that York to MDT could have 6 inches on the ground, or nothing more than flakes. It will be a wet paste either way if we get enough precip. The gradient always seems to be insane lately, and 98% of the time I'm on the wrong side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 O/T again, but the Kocin PSU appearance has officially been cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM is way west with the low. I bet precip responds next run on it but Gfs maybe huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM doesn't throw any precip. our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM doesn't throw any precip. our way? By the time the storm backs west, it has already occluded and has begun weakening. Any precip back our way would decay by the time the storm gets to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'm hearing NAM had model intialization errors which caused the jump west. Figures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 LOL....oh well. This ones over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It is never over. Someone will still get a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Bottom line: this storm is nowhere near as strong as it was progged to be 3-4 days ago. Sure, some areas should see a few inches of snow which is nice for early Nov, but widespread 4"+ seems unlikely. Here in State College I would be happy to see flakes. The good news...it's only early November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 We'll see I guess...confusing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The way I see it: It is early November, if a flake of snow sticks to my car I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Pittsburgh wants it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Well, this pittsburgher does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It's never over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Leggo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 looks like precip moving into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 looks like precip moving into PA Indeed. This is west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Indeed. This is west. seems like, as far as timing goes, its ahead of schedule right? yeah Zak, i think its a tad more West, looking at whats on the radar anyhow. 1-3" on the grassy surfaces is poss. i guess. edit-looking at the radar, look how far West into Maryland the precip is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 seems like, as far as timing goes, its ahead of schedule right? yeah Zak, i think its a tad more West, looking at whats on the radar anyhow. 1-3" on the grassy surfaces is poss. i guess. Almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Zak, look how far west into Md that precip is reaching, i find that interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If this system hits during the day, as opposed to evening/overnight, would it cause a decrease in accumulation due to increased surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 If this system hits during the day, as opposed to evening/overnight, would it cause a decrease in accumulation due to increased surface temps? only slightly... max sun angle for today is equal to that of february 3rd so not a great influx of solar radiation... mainly paved surfaces would have a harder time to start showing accumulation than grass/cars/etc... heavy precipitation rates (if snow) would accumulate day or night... a very dry air mass over PA right now is going to make it tough for even the furthest eastern counties to see much precip from this... will need heavy bands to moisten and cool the column where as the lighter stuff we are seeing on radar is and will evaporate before reaching the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I held on hope for as long as possible. It's over. Unless you are in far se pa forget it. I am done with this crap for a while. Talk to you later everyone. I am leaving the board for a while. It seems to be bad luck anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 WWA should just be dropped for York county. There will be no more then a few flurries in this area. Book it. Well it was fun following the storm, hope this winter is not full of near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Seriously if this thread is going to be like this all winter, we are going to have issues. Please add something meteorologically meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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