Wmsptwx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Lol it barely did anything here too dude don't feel bad. I just miss the modeling and changes and tracking it. On the storm next tues wed. Is it plausible to follow it or should we just judge it as a blip bc of a progressive pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Paul Kocin's coming to campus in two weeks for a guest lecture. Can't wait. Where and when is this happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Where and when is this happening? Willard Building, 8pm 11/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Potential Big Storm For Northeast U.S. Next Week http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2012/11/01/potential-big-storm-for-northeast-u-s-next-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Oz Euro paints 8-12" SN for MDT/LNS regio for next Wed (approx) tm pd. Amounts courtesy of the Philly thread. http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Oz Euro paints 8-12" SN for MDT/LNS regio for next Wed (approx) tm pd. Amounts courtesy of the Philly thread. http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Doesn't have the same level of ensemble support as the superstorm this week did but it's interesting to say the least. GFS is serving waffles, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z EURO still has a significant nor'easter and snowstorm for much of the area next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Looks like the 12z Euro is coming in deeper and along the coast, throwing decent amounts back into the central counties where the 0z Euro shut out cuz of the tight gradient. Unfortunately though, thermals are too warm in places like MDT, while central would be marginally cold for a wet snow event. Storm tracks from south of Hatteras staying in tight to the coast to over Ocean City, MD at 144hr (988mb). That's a pretty decent nor'easter, even though it's hard to look at 988mb after last week and consider that strong. But either way, it's something the coastal areas could def do without at this point as something like that would serve up yet another round of pounding surf and perhaps coastal flooding. The GFS of course is pretty far off the coast, but it does have the storm.. so we're in a familiar place right now. With the NAO remaining negative, albeit somewhat weaker and differently oriented, chances are decent for a coastal that could take a swipe at central PA and give the first overall snow threat to the region. Even if the storm whiffs, we're in quite the chilly regime the next several days leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z EURO, my favorite run traditionally , says ruh-roh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yay! I just realized DST ends Sunday morning! Model runs will come in an hour earlier starting 12z Sunday!! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Totally forgot about DST ending. Thanks for the reminder. Oh, and hello to all. Hope everybody handled the storm well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 0z Euro pretty similar to the 12z Euro with nor'easter close enough to affect most of C-PA, except this run being cool enough to probably allow flakes in Harrisburg and even Lancaster. From about AOO/UNV east and northeast looks like a general 0.6-0.8".. not overly tremendous but def enough QPF to suggest several inches is possible. GFS and CMC too far east for us but they certainly have a pretty sizeable storm...esp the CMC which deepens to 965mb just east of the benchmark. GFS ensemble mean generally supports the further east solution currently. We're still in the mid-range with this, so I definitely think we have a viable first widespread snow threat of the year. We have all the majors showing a storm, as well as in their typical positioning (GFS east, GGEM very deep, Euro furthest west). A compromise at this juncture would suggest a graze of the area with the eastern part of central PA maybe seeing modest precip. I'll be curious to see how the Euro does with this storm, I felt it had been too far southwest with it's capture of Sandy prior to everything zeroing in at the short range. Which I guess it was in the end but barely with its south Jersey instead of upper Delmarva hit. It was constantly in the southwestern end of guidance, and it ended up being the right idea. We shall see with future runs/ensembles as well as when we get into NAM range. Regardless of whether or not it affects us, I am really liking the early returns on how this winter might be shaping up with the NAO and early coastal activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Regardless of whether or not it affects us, I am really liking the early returns on how this winter might be shaping up with the NAO and early coastal activity. For us, it may be the sign of a good winter to come, but I'll bet those at the shore would prefer we don't get into this type of pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 0z Euro pretty similar to the 12z Euro with nor'easter close enough to affect most of C-PA, except this run being cool enough to probably allow flakes in Harrisburg and even Lancaster. From about AOO/UNV east and northeast looks like a general 0.6-0.8".. not overly tremendous but def enough QPF to suggest several inches is possible. GFS and CMC too far east for us but they certainly have a pretty sizeable storm...esp the CMC which deepens to 965mb just east of the benchmark. GFS ensemble mean generally supports the further east solution currently. We're still in the mid-range with this, so I definitely think we have a viable first widespread snow threat of the year. We have all the majors showing a storm, as well as in their typical positioning (GFS east, GGEM very deep, Euro furthest west). A compromise at this juncture would suggest a graze of the area with the eastern part of central PA maybe seeing modest precip. I'll be curious to see how the Euro does with this storm, I felt it had been too far southwest with it's capture of Sandy prior to everything zeroing in at the short range. Which I guess it was in the end but barely with its south Jersey instead of upper Delmarva hit. It was constantly in the southwestern end of guidance, and it ended up being the right idea. We shall see with future runs/ensembles as well as when we get into NAM range. Regardless of whether or not it affects us, I am really liking the early returns on how this winter might be shaping up with the NAO and early coastal activity. accuweather snow map has a general 6-9" for basically all of central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 AT THIS POINT...AND STILL 4 DAYS OUT...THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT STORM FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. ARMED WITH THE PRESENT /00Z AND 06Z/ OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE INFO...THE WESTERN QUARTER-THIRD OF PENN LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE SPARED FROM SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR WET SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WHILE THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE COULD SEE 1 PLUS INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It is embarrassing that the EURO kicks the crap out of the GFS on a daily bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Paul Kocin's coming to campus in two weeks for a guest lecture. Can't wait. I will definitely be there! Hopefully we have snow on the ground at that point. It's kind of a dilemma, though...while I want the Euro to be right for central PA, it would be devastating for the Jersey Shore and nobody wants to see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro dumps snow on Central pa. Probably 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro dumps snow on Central pa. Probably 6"+ how far west does the good precip make it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 how far west does the good precip make it? Just taking a quick look at the maps on wunderground, the cutoff appears to be between State College and Clearfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks like it's one of those deals where it cuts east further north you go. So if you're in Harrisburg that's fine. Probably bad news for Clearfield, State College and Williamsport though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks like it's one of those deals where it cuts east further north you go. So if you're in Harrisburg that's fine. Probably bad news for Clearfield, State College and Williamsport though. State College and Williamsport get like 3+" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 State College and Williamsport get like 3+" this run. Maybe .30"-.50" of liquid for State College/Bellefonte area on this run as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I will definitely be there! Hopefully we have snow on the ground at that point. It's kind of a dilemma, though...while I want the Euro to be right for central PA, it would be devastating for the Jersey Shore and nobody wants to see that happen. A wet snow falling along the JS and NYC would probably be worst-case for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 A wet snow falling along the JS and NYC would probably be worst-case for them. Not all that la-te-da for most others. Hydrology shows boosted GW values across the region. Gotta watch for additional uprooting if any kind of surface gusts mix down - not only during the event, but even afterwards as the storm, unlike Sandy, does not linger and the HP moves in with a decent gradient - NW flow at or above 25 with gust higher. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=11&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=12&fhour=138¶meter=TMPC&level=925&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 A wet snow falling along the JS and NYC would probably be worst-case for them. Even if it were to snow on the JS and NYC, I think it probably wouldn't accumulate, or if it did, it wouldn't be significant. I'm more concerned with the winds. This will be a fairly strong system and it appears that winds could be at least gale force at the shore locations...THAT they don't need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 EURO snow map has 9" sitting over my house. So 4-6" probably. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Oh man...anyone see the ARW? Open up the GOMEX and forms a classic Miller A with wet snow on the NW side. Weenie dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 For right now, definitely putting my chips on a minimal impact for most of C PA. Any decent snows of >4" will fall east of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 For right now, definitely putting my chips on a minimal impact for most of C PA. Any decent snows of >4" will fall east of 81. Lock in a Hazelton to WB/Scranton mauler with you in State College now haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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