powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Nice little 1.5-2.0 max over Mt Tolland lol Haha yep... apparently you don't downslope on easterly winds You'd be fine in a long duration easterly snowstorm. But also look at the NAM that dendrite posted... same type of QPF spread with very little in the valley bottoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This map surprises me a bit. Hope it plays out that way. Um...what? That map looks so different then what mets on here have talked about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That map is sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Um...what? That map looks so different then what mets on here have talked about... The NHC all along has kept the 50 knot winds far away from most of us. They've got pretty high probabilities of winds from 40 to about 50 if you were to extrapolate the percentages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 More importantly, it says "from tropical cyclones"...I haven't been following the TC vs xtrop discussion...that may play into ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 More importantly, it says "from tropical cyclones"...I haven't been following the TC vs xtrop discussion...that may play into ? Yeah that may be it.... Getting gusts up to near 35 already. Tide barely dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That map is sustained winds. Yeah that's what I was thinking... sustained 1-minute at 60mph is hard to do (but if a storm will do it, its this one), even if gusts are up to 80mph+, sustained may only be 40-50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ryan gotcha, you guys are really doing a fantastic job at nbc 30, thanks. Buoys, that's insane 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah that may be it.... Getting gusts up to near 35 already. Tide barely dropped. sh** ..any word on bridge closings? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That NHC wind map seems almost negligent to me, cone from almost all guidance I've seen should be wider and further north. I believe that wind potential is something like this for New England -- Long Island Sound and s CT sustained 50-70 mph gusts to 110, Rhode Island, se MA and Boston as well as exposed locations in CT 40-60 gusting 90, more sheltered locations in MA 30-55 gusting to 75. I also disagree with "post-tropical" at landfall plus location. Would personally go with cat-2 near Belmar to Toms River NJ. NYC forum already has my forecast and I think wind potential is similar to Long Island Sound above for most of Long Island, NYC and ne NJ. This will hit very hard. At least the region seems to have been well prepared for direct storm surge impacts, I sure hope this finds a way to underperform because if not, storm of the age potential (except where 1938 hit hardest, then a strong second). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah that may be it.... Getting gusts up to near 35 already. Tide barely dropped. please pound that thought, folks are not getting it, the low tides are high because they are forced in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I thought a couple days ago they said those maps wouldnt work up here I could be wrong though That map is sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah that's what I was thinking... sustained 1-minute at 60mph is hard to do (but if a storm will do it, its this one), even if gusts are up to 80mph+, sustained may only be 40-50mph. Yeah inland CT and points north I doubt we see sustained 60+ mph winds but we certainly will be seeing 30-40 mph winds and maybe even closer to 50 mph for the southern areas. Gusts are a different story. I thought a couple days ago they said those maps wouldnt work up here I could be wrong though Really? must have missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 please pound that thought, folks are not getting it, the low tides are high because they are forced in. Beaches are taking a beating already. Tons of erosion just today. Keep in mind it's been about 20 out of the NE gusting to 30-35 for several hours on the water.The other thing about the NHC grids...even the NAM has 50 knots sustained up to the cape islands. I'm just surprised by how low their probabilities are unless it does have to do with it occurring post TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Those maps are not valid for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That NHC wind map seems almost negligent to me, cone from almost all guidance I've seen should be wider and further north. I believe that wind potential is something like this for New England -- Long Island Sound and s CT sustained 50-70 mph gusts to 110, Rhode Island, se MA and Boston as well as exposed locations in CT 40-60 gusting 90, more sheltered locations in MA 30-55 gusting to 75. I also disagree with "post-tropical" at landfall plus location. Would personally go with cat-2 near Belmar to Toms River NJ. NYC forum already has my forecast and I think wind potential is similar to Long Island Sound above for most of Long Island, NYC and ne NJ. This will hit very hard. At least the region seems to have been well prepared for direct storm surge impacts, I sure hope this finds a way to underperform because if not, storm of the age potential (except where 1938 hit hardest, then a strong second). Violently agree..to the point of shaking you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Nice little 1.5-2.0 max over Mt Tolland lol And by the way... 4-5 days ago I was a naysayer on this storm big-time. Very skeptical of historic events, but props CT_Blizz for believing and sticking it out in true weenie fashion. Congrats on getting your epic storm dude... enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Violently agree..to the point of shaking you I don't see any model showing winds that high. The highest gusts I really can envision for coastal CT is 70 knots based on model soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 And by the way... 4-5 days ago I was a naysayer on this storm big-time. Very skeptical of historic events, but props CT_Blizz for believing and sticking it out in true weenie fashion. Congrats on getting your epic storm dude... enjoy it! I rarely hype..but when I do..I'm the most dangerous man in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 We're streaming live if anyone from out of market is interested in watching. http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/ We're forecasting wind gusts 55-70 mph inland... 65-80 mph at the shoreline. Concerned for 2 different bursts of winds... one post landfall (12z NAM really pegged that... though 18z NAM backed off a bit) out of the SE... and the first one prior to the storm's arrival out of the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy may be about to start her more rapid drop down in intensity. Some signs of that now I think. She's also still steaming NE at a pretty good clip. http://www.ssd.noaa....h-avn-long.html BTW been peaking at the RAP for kicks...been spot on with a similar track to the globals. Maybe they've finally got it worked out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Just my opinion on the eventual track. I figure from model output across the spectrum none have the track going E of 70W. Crossroads- the hard left turn should commence between now and approx midnight. The WV looping superfast shows the PJ undercutting and the brickwall block to the E and N - still 10° long. to the E Presently moving firmly to the NE at 15 mph. Crossroads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cloud structure from above spectacular. On the ground at BOS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 gfs just bumped north with landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Blizzard warnings up for parts of VA, WV, and MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 BOX 5pm: Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/... * high wind warnings for damaging winds across much of the region through Monday night with widespread power outages possible * flood watches for heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches with locally up to 5 inches possible across the higher terrain * coastal flood warnings issued for the south and east facing coasts with moderate coastal flooding likely...major coastal flooding possible along the south coasta and in Narragansett Bay Conditions ramp up substantially during Monday while Sandy...the center still offshore...makes its approach towards the middle Atlantic coastline. However the wind field from Sandy is far reaching...as over our area during Monday morning h850 winds increase to a remarkable 70 to 90+ kts. A High Wind Warning has already been issued for the entire County Warning Area...with gusts to 60 miles per hour over the interior...and gusts to 70 miles per hour over Rhode Island and east Massachusetts. These strong winds bring significant moisture flux convergence at the low levels and the strong low level wind field with Atlantic moisture could cause terrain/upslope enhanced precipitation that is reflected in particular in the NAM...especially higher resolution versions of the model. This threat is addressed more in the hydrology section of the discussion. Probability of precipitation increase to categorical early on Monday. A Flood Watch is in effect for Monday into Tuesday. During Monday night categorical probability of precipitation continue as showers associated with Sandy Cross through our area. Continued risk for locally heavy rains. H850 wind field gradually diminishes over time as Sandy tracks overland...with the low level jet continuing at 70 to 90 kts over our area to start...then diminishing to 40 to 60 kts late. High Wind Warning continues for our County Warning Area during this timeframe...still anticipating gusts to 60 to 70 kts over our County Warning Area during the night...but winds should begin to diminish towards daybreak. Coastal flood and marine headlines are addressed further in this discussion. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 gfs just bumped north with landfall The block is further SW every run regardless of where it landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cloud structure from above spectacular. On the ground at BOS now. Welcome back Jerry, glad you made it safely and in time! Brookline Police robocalls were made leaving messages about storm prep. Hopefully the touted underground electric service for Brookline will not be tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't see any model showing winds that high. The highest gusts I really can envision for coastal CT is 70 knots based on model soundings. I'm sort of bummed that the 12z WRF out of BTV has sort of "meh" winds at least as far as sustained 10-meter wind (30ft up/tree top gusts)... Tomorrow evening as the circulation comes ashore, the model has 20kt-30kt winds over most of SNE, except the south coast and cape where its more like 30-40kts. Anything out over the open water is a solid 40kts and higher though. Too bad we can't realize those over land. Long Island gets some real high winds though with 40kts sustained at tree-top. I guess that's the good part of the storm tracking south a bit...if it ended up tracking over NYC, those winds over Long Island would be up towards the Mass Pike and the damage would be much worse inland. 00z Tuesday (tomorrow evening when Sandy approaches the coast) 03 Tuesday (just after landfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Blizzard warnings up for parts of VA, WV, and MD. That's utterly awesome. I love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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