nycsnow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 @NYCMayorsOffice: The Mayor will update New Yorkers on preparations for #Sandy at 11 AM. Watch live on http://t.co/TEDML8bl. Just saw a massive nypd convoy near my house coming from rockaway, esu mobile command center flood lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 In response to questions earlier about my 15-25 inch rainfall potential forecast for parts of inland NJ and ne PA, this is based on following reasoning. North-south frontal boundary will set up during Monday at about 75W, as Sandy approaches, winds east over ne NJ with 64-68 dew points advecting in with tropical core, winds in boundary layer NNE to west of front. Extreme intensity of storm will generate 3-6 inch per hour rainfall rates with embedded TRW+ in this zone. Topography adds lift. It may be the case that my higher numbers are based mainly on higher hourly rates rather than any other differences in philosophy from models or other forecasters. However, as my prediction seems well outside the range of other estimates I will scale it back to 10-15 inches with risk of higher amounts. This would still produce significant river flooding in many areas affected. My rainfall estimates further east around the Jersey shore, metro NYC into ne NJ and Long Island seem similar to model and forecast consensus but I would stress high probability of frequent thunder. Not only is this appearing to be a highly anomalous event, its track relative to a surrounding terrain of general lift potential forces its precip shield further, which will tend to amplify frontogenesis in the very rapid transition phase. And now that reports are coming in about lower than expected central pressures at current time, end result to landfall could be even further "off scale" -- I have the impression that this is becoming more widely understood (here) and that is a good thing for forecast preparation and emergency planning. The one wild card that could totally change the outcome would be some sort of off-the-scale rapid intensification that forces faster acceleration on a track veering more towards Long Island. This would change the outcome back to more of a 1938 type scenario. At this time, I have no reason to predict such a change in evolution but am awaiting 12z model runs with interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z Nam initialized at 968. Too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cant believe the complacency around here in Hoboken. Not sure it people are unaware of the impending situation but no precautions have or are being taken anywhere. Halloween decorations still up, garbage cans out, patio furniture out on decks. Last year with Irene was a completely different scene around here. Guess no one thinks this time will be different than Irene since nothing happened last time. A lot of people will be surprised. Live in Hoboken as well and I am quite alarmed by the "non-event" this is being described as here. Went for a run this morning and water was already crashing up further than I've ever seen it. I hope I'm wrong but this could be a really bad situation here. Ill be heading to Staten Island to my parents to get my car out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yeah I've really noticed that as well. Not to mention that the wind will blow alot of the remaining leaves off that have already changed color. If we get hurricane force gusts it probably won't mean much but hopefully it will take more than a 40 or 50mph gust to down a tree this time around. Not sure of the others but by me the trees have lost a good chunk of their leaves just in the last few days. Less weight on trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 MTA just announced that all buses and trains will be shut down at 7pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 MTA just announced that all buses and trains will be shut down at 7pm tonight. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 MTA just announced that all buses and trains will be shut down at 7pm tonight. So I guess Monday won't be just a normal workday, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link? Live press conference on ch 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link? http://www.nbcnewyor...ml?fjlsda'fsdsd http://alert.mta.info/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cant believe the complacency around here in Hoboken. Not sure it people are unaware of the impending situation but no precautions have or are being taken anywhere. Halloween decorations still up, garbage cans out, patio furniture out on decks. Last year with Irene was a completely different scene around here. Guess no one thinks this time will be different than Irene since nothing happened last time. A lot of people will be surprised. As someone originally from JC this pains me to hear. Why are eevacuations not in place for JC and Hoboken?! And speaking of Irene - didn't a large section oof Hoboken go underwater anyway? I remember seeing pictures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://www.nbcnewyor...jlsda'fsdsd http://alert.mta.info/ Sounds like the Governor overrode the Mayor and did the right thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sounds like the Governor overrode the Mayor and did the right thing He is taking this storm seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 In response to questions earlier about my 15-25 inch rainfall potential forecast for parts of inland NJ and ne PA, this is based on following reasoning. North-south frontal boundary will set up during Monday at about 75W, as Sandy approaches, winds east over ne NJ with 64-68 dew points advecting in with tropical core, winds in boundary layer NNE to west of front. Extreme intensity of storm will generate 3-6 inch per hour rainfall rates with embedded TRW+ in this zone. Topography adds lift. It may be the case that my higher numbers are based mainly on higher hourly rates rather than any other differences in philosophy from models or other forecasters. However, as my prediction seems well outside the range of other estimates I will scale it back to 10-15 inches with risk of higher amounts. This would still produce significant river flooding in many areas affected. My rainfall estimates further east around the Jersey shore, metro NYC into ne NJ and Long Island seem similar to model and forecast consensus but I would stress high probability of frequent thunder. Not only is this appearing to be a highly anomalous event, its track relative to a surrounding terrain of general lift potential forces its precip shield further, which will tend to amplify frontogenesis in the very rapid transition phase. And now that reports are coming in about lower than expected central pressures at current time, end result to landfall could be even further "off scale" -- I have the impression that this is becoming more widely understood (here) and that is a good thing for forecast preparation and emergency planning. The one wild card that could totally change the outcome would be some sort of off-the-scale rapid intensification that forces faster acceleration on a track veering more towards Long Island. This would change the outcome back to more of a 1938 type scenario. At this time, I have no reason to predict such a change in evolution but am awaiting 12z model runs with interest. Thanks Roger. Good points to consider. Every event always have some surprise or another. Your reasoning for NW areas could be that surprise considering most modeled qpf. Could be the difference between the usual type flooding and major flooding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Steve D My point is that this storm this morning is developing STRONGER than any model had suggested. THAT is a fact.Time to throw out the models.... Observation time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 why did bloomy not order mand. evac zone A? that just boggles my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 My sister in Babylon who lives on a canal just off the bay is reporting that this morning's high tide was already coming over the dock. We're going to head down there now and move stuff off of her first floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 why did bloomy not order mand. evac zone A? that just boggles my mind He thinks this storm will not be as strong as Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 He thinks this storm will not be as strong as Irene. Because people are obsessed with having a storm tropical. All of the sudden that means more damage. #Failthinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 If Bloomberg does not change his tune today, he can consider his political career finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 why did bloomy not order mand. evac zone A? that just boggles my mind I'm really hoping he does...conference is 11am I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The decision to hand over the warning process to the local offices was obviously a pretty lousy one. If the mayor of NYC doesn't take this seriously, resident won't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm really hoping he does...conference is 11am I think. In light of what the governor has done, I guarantee there's pressure on Bloomberg to step up to the plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Because people are obsessed with having a storm tropical. All of the sudden that means more damage. #Failthinking. Bloomberg strikes me as just one of the most out-of-touch people around. After the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard he urged people to get out and about the city even when much of the city wasn't plowed for days. I'm really glad at least Governor Cuomo is taking this seriously and shutting down mass transit. My concern is how fast they will be able to get it back running after the storm surge-real possibility it gets high enough to flood the subways and a good part of lower Manhattan. A landfall between 0z-3z Tuesday would maximize this as it's at high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Pardon if this is bantor but wanted to share with folks. A good tip if you dont have a generator is to goto fridge and turn to setting to the coldest to perhaps give a few more hours of chill. 12z nam shows Seaside Heights landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Because people are obsessed with having a storm tropical. All of the sudden that means more damage. #Failthinking. Can the governor override Bloomberg on evacuations? I would really think Bloomberg will announce it at the 11am press conference. If not.....just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Can the governor override Bloomberg on evacuations? I would really think Bloomberg will announce it at the 11am press conference. If not.....just wow. That's my question....can the governor do things like evacuate parts of NYC and shut down NYC schools? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hurricane Wind Warning now up around all of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Pardon if this is bantor but wanted to share with folks. A good tip if you dont have a generator is to goto fridge and turn to setting to the coldest to perhaps give a few more hours of chill. 12z nam shows Seaside Heights landfall Fill your freezer with bottles of water (Or use empty container filled with water) this will act as a block of ice keeping things frozen longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 SRSO http://rammb.cira.co...s_to_display=50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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