forkyfork Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What is a realistic expectation in terms of precipitation amounts in the NYC area? Some models are quite dry compared to what is shown falling to our south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy is either starting or will be in the next 6-10 hours, of really getting into the best divergence pattern aloft, and will have that very conductive UL pattern for the vast majority of her remaining time over water....during which time she will make one more pass over the gulf stream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 going to be cool seeing the winds drop off to calm when central NJ is under the center of the storm - just remember its only temporary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 There is coastal flooding already here in south Wantagh!!!!!! I would say at least moderate because its on the road!!! That really really does not bowed well for later!!! Im at my parents house 3 blocks from the canal we have never flooded (not even in 92) but i think we at least see water around here which is sooooo unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 2AM Tues is low tide for a lot of people, so hopefully the NHC is right in terms of when Sandy will strike the coast. Although this will be such a long lasting storm that it might not matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 What is a realistic expectation in terms of precipitation amounts in the NYC area? Some models are quite dry compared to what is shown falling to our south and west. 2-4" imo. there are going to be convective bands rotating around the core which will help our totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 2-4" imo. there are going to be convective bands rotating around the core which will help our totals Cool, thanks. Looks like we're going to see precip in a punctuated fashion. I was kind of hoping we could get in on the prolonged heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Most recent surge/wind IKE is 5.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Sandy is either starting or will be in the next 6-10 hours, of really getting into the best divergence pattern aloft, and will have that very conductive UL pattern for the vast majority of her remaining time over water....during which time she will make one more pass over the gulf stream.... And it's already down to 951 mb. This thing is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Our only saving grace might be that we don't see too much rain and there is a good chance we don't have the flooding like we had with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Waves forecast, already some buoys reporting 28' waves near the center of Sandy-D http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-US_eastcoast- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 hard to believe but at KEWR during Irene the winds were basically in the 20's with gusts in the 40's - Sandys winds are forecasted to be double that 50 or better with gusts to 75 . Major difference though with Sandy is the rainfall predicted much less then Irene falling on ground that is basically been dry in most areas now while pre - Irene the ground was approaching saturated already - trees will be more difficult to down now plus many trees are over 50 percent without leaves some closer to 75 % during Irene the trees were 100 % full ......... http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2011/8/28/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Are we going to only see 2-4 inches of rain or are the models underdoing the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tropical models look like far srn NJ, would be better for the city if that happened as far as surge goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 hard to believe but at KEWR during Irene the winds were basically in the 20's with gusts in the 40's - Sandys winds are forecasted to be double that 50 or better with gusts to 75 . Major difference though with Sandy is the rainfall predicted much less then Irene falling on ground that is basically been dry in most areas now while pre - Irene the ground was approaching saturated already - trees will be more difficult to down now plus many trees are over 50 percent without leaves some closer to 75 % during Irene the trees were 100 % full ......... http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html I hope I'm not whistling in the graveyard but I'm with you on this. I think this will be more like the March 13, 2010 storm, but with the ground even less soaked. Remember that was right after the February 25, 2010 "snowicane" that had about 3" liquid. We are, fortunately, in much drier times now.Apropos of that are we back in the 1950's-1960's dry cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Winds are starting to pick up over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Friv had a good point in the other thread. Just because we've never seen it before, doesn't mean it can't happen. I know NHC got caught with egg on their face back in 2005 with Epsilon and Zeta. The NHC insisted those storms would weaken, but they didn't. The NHC insists this is going to become an extratropical storm, but instead we have a strengthening hurricane. This thing could be sub-940 mb by later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Really looking good now... Might be able to strengthen a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That is my plan, but one has to wonder...How are the towers powered? And one has to also wonder if any of them get damaged by the high winds. FYI, federal regulations require most towers have back up power. Doesn't help with the damage though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Not sure of the others but by me the trees have lost a good chunk of their leaves just in the last few days. Less weight on trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Not sure of the others but by me the trees have lost a good chunk of their leaves just in the last few days. Less weight on trees Same here especially some of the oaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 it doesnt matter, its still going to be because of the angle of approach with all the water being forced into the harbor. Tropical models look like far srn NJ, would be better for the city if that happened as far as surge goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Recon seems to show quite a jog to the east with the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Recon seems to show quite a jog to the east with the center Any chance it goes OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Any chance it goes OTS? No chance at all. The blocking is going to prevent this storm from escaping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Any chance it goes OTS? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy785 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Cant believe the complacency around here in Hoboken. Not sure it people are unaware of the impending situation but no precautions have or are being taken anywhere. Halloween decorations still up, garbage cans out, patio furniture out on decks. Last year with Irene was a completely different scene around here. Guess no one thinks this time will be different than Irene since nothing happened last time. A lot of people will be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 it doesnt matter, its still going to be because of the angle of approach with all the water being forced into the harbor. What I mean is something into central NJ or even just south of NYC would bring a very abrupt shift in winds and even an increase potentially from the SE and S. Something further south would be a gradual NE-E-SE shift and perhaps lessen the impact. Still doesn't change LI sound. Just saying if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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