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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro perhaps goes a bit more in the way of the GFS with regards to track/landfall being further north. The Euro seems like it will be correct all along with the phasing occurring south of SNE but at the same time the Euro just may be too amped and too phase happy giving us the more southerly/westerly landfall. The GFS, while certainly there with the phasing is a bit less intense and may be more realistic.
I believe we are closing in on LF between mid NJ to mid LI, unless the models are way off. We will see..

Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck.

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I believe we are closing in on LF between mid NJ to mid LI, unless the models are way off. We will see..

Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck.

Yeah I would think so as well...an even with this that this doesn't tell us a great deal, especially when it comes to the damaging wind potential and who experiences the strongest winds. The wind aspect of this will be very tough to pinpoint until just several hours out or so.

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euro may cause an upgrade to hurr warning palm beaches north to central fl coast. hr 24 looks like it sittin within 10 miles of WPB,FL

anyone have high resoluton location

This is why the whole solution of being so far SW for landfall may be wrong, that would be one hell of a 24 hour track error for NHC.

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How can it be near WPB at 0Z Saturday when it is almost up to that latitude already...east of MIA now.. Something is amiss.....

euro may cause an upgrade to hurr warning palm beaches north to central fl coast. hr 24 looks like it sittin within 10 miles of WPB,FL

anyone have high resoluton location

euro has takes this significantly closer near SE US coast practically

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Friday morning and still 2 camps..thought the farther sw one seems to be fading somewhat esp based on ens guidance

I seriously hope the 12z guidance can really narrow down the area of landfall...the spread right now is so huge and it's still up in the air as to how extreme the impacts will be here (besides coastal flooding)...the GFS/NAM solutions would certainly give us a great deal of wind potential. The Euro though does bring some intense winds into southern CT and especially RI/SE MA as well.

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I seriously hope the 12z guidance can really narrow down the area of landfall...the spread right now is so huge and it's still up in the air as to how extreme the impacts will be here (besides coastal flooding)...the GFS/NAM solutions would certainly give us a great deal of wind potential. The Euro though does bring some intense winds into southern CT and especially RI/SE MA as well.

I wouldn't focus on exactly what the models show for winds and where. We've never seen anything like this in recorded history..so none oif us..mets included have a good handle on what will ultimately happen. Suffice it to say..the entire NE corridor from Philly north is in for something special in some way shape or form
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Honestly I wouldn't focus on exactly what the models show for winds and where. We've never seen anything like this in recorded history..so none oif us..mets included have a good handle on what will ultimately happen. Suffice it to say..the entire NE corridor from Philly north is in for something special in some way shape or form

Well we need at least some sort of guidance...sure the models aren't going to be perfect but it's what we have and we just have to utilize them the best we can.

The wind potential will be quite intriguing b/c with cooler SST's and cooler airmass (temps 50's to low 60's) you have to wonder if we'll end up seeing inversions above the surface which could really impact the level of the winds that mix down.

Anyways though I think we should prepare for the possibility of very strong winds as well as widespread power outages.

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Honestly when I saw last night's run of the GFS..it was insane with the 938 range near the tip of long island..this morning its going in south of NJ....seems like the NHC is siding with the Euro this morning and its not even touching SNE...this model mayhem is nuts...what ever happens happens I guess..It is what it is..

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