Jefflaw77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I know it's been discussed on here before, but anyone living in the NYC/Long Island region has always questioned 1)whether a hurricane could ever approach the nyc/long island area from the Southeast and if so 2) what effects it would have. Generally, it's been said for it to happen it would be VERY rare and, if so, b/c of the coastline, it could be extremely bad for point north and east of the center.. Thus, if this storm comes into say, Sandy Hook, NY Harbor, and points east would be decimated... I can't believe the prediction maps point to this possibility.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What! You don't think it's likely that a 935mb low pressure will slam into NY Harbor? You're crazy. I didn't mean the strength. I do think the Euro is overdoing the strength.I am talking about the track of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I didn't mean the strength. I do think the Euro is overdoing the strength.I am talking about the track of the storm. You posted it in response to somebody talking specifically about the pressure/strength lol I think the pressures are definitely modeled too low. No way do we get something in the 930s or 940s even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.hark.com/clips/wczpftzcjl-youre-headed-right-for-the-middle-of-the-monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Im really interested what a landfall hybrid tropical cyclone in sandy hook/NYC are with the sustained and wind gusts across LI with a storm around 950mb. I havent experienced hurricane force winds and wonder if i even would where i am even with this storm. Not that i want to experience it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS has backed off big time (Compared to the 00z run) with the interaction between Sandy and the Atlantic ULL. This should bode well for a farther west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Only the NWS is allowed to use the term Hurricane Warning. They DO have a warning called "Inland Hurricane Force Wind Warning", however. I understand but to bluewave's point it would behoove the NWS in this case to leave them up even when the storm goes extratropical. As far as the "Inland Hurricane Force Wind Warning" they most definitely should make use of that if it becomes clear that those conditions will transpire. I just would hope they'd do so in a timely manner to give folks the ability to prepare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS has backed off big time (Compared to the 00z run) with the interaction between Sandy and the Atlantic ULL. This should bode well for a farther west track. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z early dynamic models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I agree. It's still trending to the Euro...so it probably won't be as wrapped up...but its getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 570 dam contour has really wedged between Sandy and the ULL this time. I'd be shocked if the GFS wasn't a hit near our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Im really interested what a landfall hybrid tropical cyclone in sandy hook/NYC are with the sustained and wind gusts across LI with a storm around 950mb. I havent experienced hurricane force winds and wonder if i even would where i am even with this storm. Not that i want to experience it anyway Too early to nail down specifics but I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts frequently in the 80-90 mph range if the crazier scenarios take place. Sustained would likely be lower, maybe in the 60-65 mph area. That's for coastal regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's still not as strong with the blocking as the Euro is, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It's turning back NW between 108-114hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 OMG @ 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 940's mb near Montauk at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We should just have one person saving the model images and uploading them here, as it seems like NCEP is having some trouble with all of the traffic. It's like an inadvertent dDOS attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Dec 92 idea (of wind/tidal flooding) has been what I've been thinking as well. See this is what I am trying to assess. Is it fair to say that this has the potential to be a mimic of the Perfect Storm's dynamics (which who knows what that would do to land and lord help us all if it hits land) or would it be more like December 1992 just from the standpoint of damage and wind strengh as clearly December 1992 never began as a Hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z GFS 120-126hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Directly over the twin forks at 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is exactly 2/25/2010 again as far as the track, who would have ever thought such a crazy track could repeat itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Directly over the twin forks at 129 a hurricane moving west over Long Island..not in my lifetime WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ugh. As part of the local EM community for my town, this isn't looking good. Models really honing in on a NJ landfall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well it's about dang time gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A 940 low? WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 @ 120 Is that a 944mb near the benchmark moving NW? smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 and it just stays there. on top of western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A 940 low? WOW i feel like we went through this with irene....ill be shocked to see a low near 940 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A 944 mb storm moving west from the ocean , this storm if it pans out would be one for the record books . I had massive flooding from Irene along with 60 mph wind gusts . This storm may be worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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