Stebo Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The strong jet at 925mb (50-60+ kts depending on the model you look at) is good for damaging wind potential... even weak convection can mix (or bring down) those kind of wind speeds to the surface. Having a bit of an easterly component to the winds (out of the southeast instead of south or southwest) not only adds more spin to the low-levels of the atmosphere, but it will also help these storms ingest more unstable air and allow storms to have a longer lifespan. Of course, such high winds throughout the column suggest storms will also be moving pretty quickly... mature storms will have a forward speed of 50-60 mph... perhaps faster in some cases. The only risk that could corrupt a setup like this is a lack of instability, without at least a marginally buoyant atmosphere you run the risk of the updrafts being sheared apart. A circumstance of having potentially too much shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The strong jet at 925mb (50-60+ kts depending on the model you look at) is good for damaging wind potential... even weak convection can mix those kind of wind speeds to the surface. Having a bit of an easterly component to the winds (out of the southeast instead of south or southwest) not only adds more spin to the low-levels of the atmosphere, but it will also help these storms ingest more unstable air and allow storms to have a longer lifespan. Of course, such high winds throughout the column suggest storms will also be moving pretty quickly... mature storms will have a forward speed of 50-60 mph... perhaps faster in some cases. Thanks, not all of us understand the nerd speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Thanks, not all of us understand the nerd speak I have been nerding it up a bit this morning I think my co-workers have had enough of my storm talk for the day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I have been nerding it up a bit this morning I think my co-workers have had enough of my storm talk for the day lol. are winds going perpendicular to each other the best for shear and storm creation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I have been nerding it up a bit this morning I think my co-workers have had enough of my storm talk for the day lol. I don't mind it. I just sometimes need things to be dumbed down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 are winds going perpendicular to each other the best for shear and storm creation? Depends on what kind of storm you're trying to get and where the unstable air is, but generally the answer is yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 KFCX soundings aren't too shabby, but I feel I'm too far west to have a good shot. Danville(KDAN) soundings, further south and east from me, look surprisingly good and with ~1500j/kg CAPE to work with as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Depends on what kind of storm you're trying to get and where the unstable air is, but generally the answer is yes. I'd like a Snownado. What types of winds do we need to get one of those? A more serious question, is this event morphing into more of a squall-line t-storm event, or is that just when the front slices through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The strong jet at 925mb (50-60+ kts depending on the model you look at) is good for damaging wind potential... even weak convection can mix those kind of wind speeds to the surface. Having a bit of an easterly component to the winds (out of the southeast instead of south or southwest) not only adds more spin to the low-levels of the atmosphere, but it will also help these storms ingest more unstable air and allow storms to have a longer lifespan. Of course, such high winds throughout the column suggest storms will also be moving pretty quickly... mature storms will have a forward speed of 50-60 mph... perhaps faster in some cases. Didn't intend to step on toes if you perceived it as such. I like to think I'm pretty decent at decoding some concepts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I don't like what I'm seeing on the progs. Unlike many here, I don't much like systems that have a high probability of causing power outages across portions of the region. Fast moving storms usually have some of the storms with strong enough downdrafts to bring strong winds down to the surface. The sounding shows strong winds not far from the surface making it likely some cell will deliver strong winds which will bring down limbs and trees. Hopefully, not in my yard. Living in home surrounded by trees, that's not something I like very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Agreed...not a fan of wind events. This will end up being a decent rainmaker. The idea that early storms lay the foundation of storm tracks later does not bode well for the MA in terms of snow, IMHO. The track would be to our West and put us in line for more rain than frozen precp, with cold front rushing in behind changing to a little backend snow, which we all know does not usually work out well for us. Safe driving all tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 21z Baltimore sounding is pretty impressive from the 12z NAM, with 1000-1200 j/kg of CAPE and >500 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 21z Baltimore sounding is pretty impressive from the 12z NAM, with 1000-1200 j/kg of CAPE and >500 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH... Pretty nice... and nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 That hodo is pretty damn stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I wish I understood that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 KIAD SBCAPE reaches close to 1500 J/KG at 18z and then drops just below 1000 at 21z... KDCA just under 1500 J/KG at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 KDCA at 21z tomorrow per 12z NAM... similar to KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 This is starting to feel like a movie that I have seen before....nice intense line of storms forming west of the mountains....fizzle and fade as they cross only to blow up real good to the east of here.....I say BWI is in the cross hairs with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 LWX's 12z 12km WRF-NMM from today shows a QLCS/squall line roaring through around 5-6PM tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 LWX's 12z 12km WRF-NMM from today shows a QLCS/squall line roaring through around 5-6PM tomorrow evening I'd certainly be concerned about spin ups and discrete activity ahead of it with the type of LL shear/helicity being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Will be interesting to see if 12z GFS follows suit... doesn't the NAM overdo CAPE in these types of environments? 1730 SPC OTLK should be an interesting read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Will be interesting to see if 12z GFS follows suit... doesn't the NAM overdo CAPE in these types of environments? 1730 SPC OTLK should be an interesting read High risk?!?!! I'm guessing it'll stick with 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Will be interesting to see if 12z GFS follows suit... doesn't the NAM overdo CAPE in these types of environments? 1730 SPC OTLK should be an interesting read Not based on what I've seen. It normally overdoes CAPE when we get a downsloping event... NAM will usually keep winds out of the south more ahead of a cold front, keeping dewpoints and CAPE higher than other models like the GFS, which will more correctly depict the westerly component of the wind and associated downslope mixing. Both models are showing winds out of the south/SSE at the surface for this event, so I'd trust the NAM more this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Wow, those hodos are pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 High risk?!?!! I'm guessing it'll stick with 30% I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 High risk?!?!! I'm guessing it'll stick with 30% Given it's somewhat conditional probably stay 30%, maybe hatched. It could become a mod tho by tomorrow perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Not based on what I've seen. It normally overdoes CAPE when we get a downsloping event... NAM will usually keep winds out of the south more ahead of a cold front, keeping dewpoints and CAPE higher than other models like the GFS, which will more correctly depict the westerly component of the wind and associated downslope mixing. Both models are showing winds out of the south/SSE at the surface for this event, so I'd trust the NAM more this time around. Appreciate the response Ellinwood. Always looking for biases from the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Given it's somewhat conditional probably stay 30%, maybe hatched. It could become a mod tho by tomorrow perhaps. Agree... I could see shaded IF the GFS goes along with the NAM for 1730 SPC update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I don't like what I'm seeing on the progs. Unlike many here, I don't much like systems that have a high probability of causing power outages across portions of the region. Fast moving storms usually have some of the storms with strong enough downdrafts to bring strong winds down to the surface. The sounding shows strong winds not far from the surface making it likely some cell will deliver strong winds which will bring down limbs and trees. Hopefully, not in my yard. Living in home surrounded by trees, that's not something I like very much. I agree about the high wind and power outages. I dont like systems that bring those around my area either. I also live where lots of trees can come down on our home which makes these storms worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Agreed...not a fan of wind events. This will end up being a decent rainmaker. The idea that early storms lay the foundation of storm tracks later does not bode well for the MA in terms of snow, IMHO. The track would be to our West and put us in line for more rain than frozen precp, with cold front rushing in behind changing to a little backend snow, which we all know does not usually work out well for us. Safe driving all tommorow. No snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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