CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 isolated convection is always nice.. kinda not the typical in these parts either. i saw a few cool pics of cells in n md and s pa earlier too. I tend to be more on the meh side, when it comes to tstms around here, but to see a SVR go up like that in an isolated fashion is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The 18z GFS has a scenario that kind of stinks for western SNE. The second s/w coming down from the lakes is stronger and kicks the original s/w northeast. Could be the GFS..but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The 18z GFS has a scenario that kind of stinks for western SNE. The second s/w coming down from the lakes is stronger and kicks the original s/w northeast. Could be the GFS..but something to watch. Wiz and ineedsnow will be heartbroken if this revolting development turns out to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The 18z GFS has a scenario that kind of stinks for western SNE. The second s/w coming down from the lakes is stronger and kicks the original s/w northeast. Could be the GFS..but something to watch. Sounds good to me, Scooter if anything happens at all, what time would you peg for down here, work then beach so timing is everything. Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Even though I was the only one who saw it close by, some amazing structure shots of the storms from the south. My daughter was in Quincy and said the sky was awesome and she is usually not impressed with weather related views. Good storm here, only thing missing was mammatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I think we're looking at a high end widespread wind damage threat from Binghamton to the Hudson Valley and up to Saratoga Springs. Could be an isolated super cell or two out ahead of it (possible tornado). Further north or south its slightly more complicated. Up in Northern New England, the front isn't arriving until late so instability will be decreasing. That being said, wind field will be stronger already. Down in the NYC metro area the CAPE will be higher but the greatest forcing and wind field is north. However, 1500+ CAPE and 40 knots of 0-6km shear and 30 knots of 0-1km shear will provide enough for severe thunderstorms along the line with damaging winds the main threat (possibly high end in a few cases). I'm not sold on a tornado threat in the NYC area (except for a possible weak spin up along the front edge of the line). Anyway I HIGHLY doubt they drop the MDT risk, although I could see some shrinkage. Would not even be surprised to see a HIGH risk pop out tomorrow morning. This is potential to be quite significant for the lower tier of NY and into the Hudson/Mohawk River Valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Anyway I HIGHLY doubt they drop the MDT risk, although I could see some shrinkage. Would not even be surprised to see a HIGH risk pop out tomorrow morning. That would be pretty ridiculous, but I'm sure if they were going to issue one that they'd wait until the instability factor is set in stone largely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 That would be pretty ridiculous, but I'm sure if they were going to issue one that they'd wait until the instability factor is set in stone largely. Oh I'm not expecting it, but something as dynamically driven as this can make do with 1000 CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sounds good to me, Scooter if anything happens at all, what time would you peg for down here, work then beach so timing is everything. Thank you sir. Well we may see some shwrs move up from the south at anytime in the aftn to be honest. It will not be a good beach day with 25-30mph winds. Actual line of rain may be more like 7-9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wiz and ineedsnow will be heartbroken if this revolting development turns out to be true. Not being a Debbie, just saying what it showed. I still would rather be west of the MA/NY border for the best stuff, but maybe the 00z runs speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not being a Debbie, just saying what it showed. I still would rather be west of the MA/NY border for the best stuff, but maybe the 00z runs speed up. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well we may see some shwrs move up from the south at anytime in the aftn to be honest. It will not be a good beach day with 25-30mph winds. Actual line of rain may be more like 7-9pm. goes along with what I've been reading from local sources here.....with the line coming in that late, would think it starts to fall apart as it often does here anyway with the marine taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well we may see some shwrs move up from the south at anytime in the aftn to be honest. It will not be a good beach day with 25-30mph winds. Actual line of rain may be more like 7-9pm. Thanks man, sounds perfect beach faces east so we are largely blocked by homes and such, but the action out on the reef will be intense, I need to bring the cam out tomorrow and take some video. Penfield reef is cool, one side will be like the ocean, the other calm as can be, broken by only 20 yards of reef. 7-9, thats perfect, thanks much Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Also, let's not underestimate the synoptic scale winds in Northern New England in the late afternoon. Could easily see 35-45 mph wind gusts (possibly 50 mph) in the channeled valleys and higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'd say too much capping ahead of the front for supercells and the front is not oriented properly for a Derecho. I haven't looked at a Conus weather map in 6 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Thanks man, sounds perfect beach faces east so we are largely blocked by homes and such, but the action out on the reef will be intense, I need to bring the cam out tomorrow and take some video. Penfield reef is cool, one side will be like the ocean, the other calm as can be, broken by only 20 yards of reef. 7-9, thats perfect, thanks much Scooter. grab some video and picks...we have our neighborhood block party from 2-8-hoping to get most of it in...otherwise, would be a cool day to check out the beach-not sure I'd want to be sitting down there with the blowing sand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 grab some video and picks...we have our neighborhood block party from 2-8-hoping to get most of it in...otherwise, would be a cool day to check out the beach-not sure I'd want to be sitting down there with the blowing sand... meh, only blowing sand will be east of the reef and sea grape, great day to be out on the end of fairfield beach rd, too, not only for the surf, but watching the storms come in, amazing spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I wonder if much warmer than normal ssts will not be as effective in weakening storms as they move east at least across sw ct. (southerly winds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 meh, only blowing sand will be east of the reef and sea grape, great day to be out on the end of fairfield beach rd, too, not only for the surf, but watching the storms come in, amazing spot. do you sit on that little part to the right of the wrecked house (from Irene) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 do you sit on that little part to the right of the wrecked house (from Irene) yes sir, that sea wall has given me some great vantage points for storms, sunsets and sw surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I wouldn't say marine taint. Waters are warm. It may cause a little bit of moderation with such strong winds, but the water is relatively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I wouldn't say marine taint. Waters are warm. It may cause a little bit of moderation with such strong winds, but the water is relatively warm. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 yes sir, that sea wall has given me some great vantage points for storms, sunsets and sw surf. we often bike down there and pause to admire the view...houses down there are still a mess from Irene...lot of the landscaping is still dead too from the salt water instrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 we often bike down there and pause to admire the view...houses down there are still a mess from Irene...lot of the landscaping is still dead too from the salt water instrusion. Yeah, those few houses on the end got owned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah, those few houses on the end got owned. the canal along the back often comes in before the water from the sound...amazing pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The storm that developed right over Boston was timed perfect for my departure from work. Torrential rain, lightning crashing around. The building was struck. fire alarm went off. Cambridge St was a river, back end of Charles St near MGH had standing water 8-10" deep. Umbrella was useless. The train (MBTA) at Charles St station stopped, witnessed three bolts hiting the tracks 100 yards to the north on the bridge. Lights on the train flickered must have taken a huge power surge. Crazy stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 nice scud-nader on the cell in Btown tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The storm that developed right over Boston was timed perfect for my departure from work. Torrential rain, lightning crashing around. The building was struck. fire alarm went off. Cambridge St was a river, back end of Charles St near MGH had standing water 8-10" deep. Umbrella was useless. The train (MBTA) at Charles St station stopped, witnessed three bolts hiting the tracks 100 yards to the north on the bridge. Lights on the train flickered must have taken a huge power surge. Crazy stuff! Nice Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 nice scud-nader on the cell in Btown tonight Scudtacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah, those few houses on the end got owned. Wow! Had no idea it got that bad down there..will have to check it out sometimes tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.