NECT Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 nice scud-nader on the cell in Btown tonight For the well-trained, that may be an easily-identifiable scud-nader, but I have to imagine a lot of folks would not stick around to study it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 0z NAM looks meh once east of the NY/MA border, no? Front arrives too late and best dynamics escape to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Is 00z that bad? Haven't looked at anything yet (on iPhone) but it looks like the conversation died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Ne pa , hudson valley best potential,perhaps incl. Nyc, western sne line of storms late evening, east sne dying line of storms toward 10pm or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Is 00z that bad? Haven't looked at anything yet (on iPhone) but it looks like the conversation died. GFS is awful and NAM isnt much better, the total evolution is different with the best dynamics quickly escaping to the north, would be shocked if SPC didnt really shrink the MOD or take it out alltogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The point, not all damaging MCS/wind events are classified as derechoes. True It's not necessarily a derecho pattern per se but it could perhaps meet the criteria. It will probably turn out to be like many prior year cool season QLCS events. What makes tomorrow's interesting is IF scattered supercelss can develop out ahead of the forced line. Nov 89? I like Wizs analogy. Its good so is NOV 16-17 2010. I did a paper on this event. In NOV 1989 there were actually 2 severe/tornado events in NYS one on the the 16th the other on the 20th. I'm not that familiar with that event tho looking at NARR and the fact that there was a high risk over the south with the same system I don't see a ton of similarity. That was a ginormous trough. http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us1116.php Here are some research papers on these events. I have them buried somewhere in my library if your interested I find them and send them to you. LaPenta, K., and Barton, R. April,1993: The 20 November 1989 Northeast Severe Weather Outbreak. Eastern Region Technical Attachment No. 93-4A Nemeth, J.S., Jr., and Farina, K., June, 1994: The Role of Jetstreaks in the Tornadic Development of the November 16, 1989 over the Northeast United States. Eastern Region Technical Attachment No. 94-6A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 It's out, MDT, roughly the same size/location. 10% tor, 45% sig-hatched wind. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NY...CENTRAL/SRN VT...SWRN NH...CENTRAL/WRN MA...MUCH OF CT...NJ...NRN DE...NERN MD...AND ERN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK AREA...FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY SWWD TO SC AND PORTIONS ERN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER CONUS WILL FEATURE WRN MEAN RIDGING AND ERN TROUGHING. LATTER WILL BE REINFORCED BY STG SHORTWAVE NOW ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS LS...IA...AND CENTRAL PLAINS. PRIMARY 500-MB VORTICITY CONCENTRATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PERTURBATION IS OVER WI ATTM. ENHANCED VORTICITY FIELD IS FCST TO PIVOT CYCLONICALLY ACROSS LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA AND OH THROUGH 08/18Z...THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND EJECT NEWD TO NRN QUE BY 9/12Z. MEANWHILE...TRAILING/NARROW RIBBON OF MAXIMIZED MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL MOVE GENERALLY SEWD OVER SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION...AND CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THESE PROCESSES WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN MB -- DIGS SEWD AND AMPLIFIES...REACHING LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. SEASONALLY STG SFC COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM LE SWWD ACROSS OH...NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH SQUALL LINE FROM OH TO ARKLATEX REGION...AND OTHERWISE SURGING SWD ACROSS NERN/W-CENTRAL TX AND TRANS-PECOS REGION. VIGOROUS SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG FRONT BY EARLY IN PERIOD OVER SERN ONT. RESULTING LOW THEN SHOULD DEEPEN AND EJECT NEWD OVER NRN QUE...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF LEADING 500-MB VORTICITY LOBE. BY 9/00Z...TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN NY...DE RIVER VALLEY...WRN NC...NRN GA...AND SERN LA. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF ERN MAINE AROUND END OF PERIOD...WHILE SRN PORTION MOVES SEWD ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO SRN PIEDMONT REGION... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. MAIN BAND OF SVR CONVECTION WILL OFFER DENSE CONCENTRATION OF SVR/DAMAGING GUSTS...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH 65 KT...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES...IN AND NEAR MDT RISK AREA. TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF SEVERAL STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION REGIMES. HAIL RISK APPEARS TERTIARY IN IMPORTANCE. COMBINATION OF INFLUENCES FROM AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT FALLS...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT...AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT OVER WARM SECTOR DURING PERIOD OF DIURNAL HEATING. MEANWHILE...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA THROUGHOUT PREFRONTAL MID-ATLC...WHERE MAIN BELT OF DEEP ASCENT WILL ENCOUNTER RESERVOIR OF MID-60S TO LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS. STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED FROM SERN CONUS NEWD AT LEAST INTO DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSOLATION FARTHER N...THOUGH SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TO WEAKEN CAP FAVORABLY OVER NYC AREA...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. WIND-DAMAGE AND SPORADIC TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH PRIMARY SQUALL LINE OVER MID-ATLC REGION...ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SWD INTO CAROLINAS...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS STILL PRIMARY THREAT. SVR SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED AROUND BOW/LEWP FEATURES...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND RELATED MESOCIRCULATIONS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO WHICH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OVER MID-ATLC REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AREA OF 200-350 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH PRIOR TO FROPA...FROM NERN PA/NJ NWD UP HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THAT AREA WILL LIE ON NRN FRINGE OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY...WITH ENOUGH HEATING AND RICH LOW-LEVEL THETAE TO YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER WRN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND. BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE SSWWD TOWARD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND BEYOND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND SHORTER IN DURATION FROM GA SWWD TO CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. IN MID-ATLC REGION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING NUMBER AND LONGEVITY OF RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTMS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...WHICH WOULD POSE MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO RISK. FCST BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR...LIKELIHOOD OF RELATIVELY WEAK MLCINH BY EARLY AFTN...AND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE HODOGRAPHS...SUGGEST SOME TSTMS MAY HAVE TIME TO MATURE INTO DISTINCT SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...RELATIVE MAX IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES IS DRAWN FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA AND NJ. OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...THOUGH STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY WILL SHIFT EWD OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE CARRIED EWD TO COAST...EXCEPT FOR MRGL RISK OVER ERN MAINE LATE IN PERIOD. ..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 09/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 GFS is awful and NAM isnt much better, the total evolution is different with the best dynamics quickly escaping to the north, would be shocked if SPC didnt really shrink the MOD or take it out alltogether You are about as bad as Kevin just the polar opposite lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 NAM kind of backed off on it's robust instability forecast, however, tomorrow still looks very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 GFS is awful and NAM isnt much better, the total evolution is different with the best dynamics quickly escaping to the north, would be shocked if SPC didnt really shrink the MOD or take it out alltogether So yeah let's stop with this nonsense ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 GFS is awful and NAM isnt much better, the total evolution is different with the best dynamics quickly escaping to the north, would be shocked if SPC didnt really shrink the MOD or take it out alltogether Do you know anything about cool season severe events? Do you know what a LCHS severe weather event is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 NAM kind of backed off on it's robust instability forecast, however, tomorrow still looks very good Don't get too worried Wiz u don't need a ton of CAPE with the kind of dynamics/kinematics that WILL BE around the NEUS tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Do you know anything about cool season severe events? Do you know what a LCHS severe weather event is? My guess is no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 That's a great discussion from Edwards/Leitman, BTW. Props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Do you know anything about cool season severe events? Do you know what a LCHS severe weather event is? i dont consider this a cool season event with dews in the lower 70s and temps in the 80s. widespread low cape and high shear events are never a slam dunk, especially when I see the surface low proged to be so for NW and lifting out as quick as forecasted. I no longer see the S/W diving into the base of the trough as the NAM was showing earlier, hence the LLJ is no longer as strong as the NAM had say at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 That's a great discussion from Edwards/Leitman, BTW. Props. Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 i dont consider this a cool season event with dews in the lower 70s and temps in the 80s. That wasn't his point at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 i dont consider this a cool season event with dews in the lower 70s and temps in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 i dont consider this a cool season event with dews in the lower 70s and temps in the 80s. Fall (sept 1 is the start of it meteorologically anyway) is a cool season. Oft times in Sept right up through March and April one can and does get severe wx with MINIMAL CAPE but high shear. This is a COOL SEASON event. Sometimes u won't even "see" any CAPE yet still get severe wx during these months. A decrease of theta-E with height in combo wiht high shear can work magic. Time to move on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This event is going to have typical cool-season event dynamics with >1000 J/kg CAPE likely over much of the warm sector. All systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This event is going to have typical cool-season event dynamics with >1000 J/kg CAPE likely over much of the warm sector. All systems go. Yeah a cool season event with 75+ ssts and. 70+ dews. Nor'easter thinks that a negative lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 To be fair to Noreaster27, the shortwave does escape to the northeast faster on recent runs than what was previously shown, and the 0-1km helicity on the 00z NAM is weaker for southern areas than it was in last night's run. I definitely agree with issuing a 10% tornado, but I think it extends too far south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 To be fair to Noreaster27, the shortwave does escape to the northeast faster on recent runs than what was previously shown, and the 0-1km helicity on the 00z NAM is weaker for southern areas than it was in last night's run. I definitely agree with issuing a 10% tornado, but I think it extends too far south and east. Yeah there are many possible bust reasons for later today but noreaster is a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 To be fair to Noreaster27, the shortwave does escape to the northeast faster on recent runs than what was previously shown, and the 0-1km helicity on the 00z NAM is weaker for southern areas than it was in last night's run. I definitely agree with issuing a 10% tornado, but I think it extends too far south and east. Completely agree. Areas west of here CLEARLY have a strong signal of tornado potential, but I'm just not seeing it reaching down into central and even eastern SNE. Too far east. I can see a lot of potential hype and a huge bust. Will be interesting to see how the media plays it. I've toyed with creating this graphic to compare with the SPC for verification. The red box is where I feel that a Tornado Watch may be warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This event is going to have typical cool-season event dynamics with >1000 J/kg CAPE likely over much of the warm sector. All systems go. This is all I needed to see. When TT speaks ..people need to listen. Enjoy today everyone. It is going to be memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Boom THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH AN ATTENDANT SQUALL-LINE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS THE RENEWED THREAT WITH THIS SQUALL-LINE OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Great, on call for work today so hoping this threat is just meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 My latest detailed thoughts: http://www.nymetrowe...today/#more-536 And I agree with your polygon, Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 nice scud-nader on the cell in Btown tonight Beautiful picture. This event is going to have typical cool-season event dynamics with >1000 J/kg CAPE likely over much of the warm sector. All systems go. I don't get too jazzed over severe events as--due to their hit/miss nature, more often than not, most of us 'enjoy from the sidelines' Reading yhour enthusaism here though has me raising an eyebrow. Completely agree. Areas west of here CLEARLY have a strong signal of tornado potential, but I'm just not seeing it reaching down into central and even eastern SNE. Too far east. I can see a lot of potential hype and a huge bust. Will be interesting to see how the media plays it. I've toyed with creating this graphic to compare with the SPC for verification. The red box is where I feel that a Tornado Watch may be warranted. Congrats, Andy. I for one don't have a burning desire for a tornado to rip through my yard, so I don't mind that setting up west of NE. Just give me some good straight-line winds and I'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Just woke up so didn't look at satellite but the sun is out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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