Riptide Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I don't really see this posing a threat right now to the EC. It's almost completely impossible, but most factors would be in favor of that happening if Leslie did not get involved in the central atlantic weakness anymore on the euro or GFS. GFS OP is east of most the ensembles FWIW. Overall, I think it's a rare setup which has more time for changes in the short-mid term where it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 It's almost completely impossible, but most factors would be in favor of that happening if Leslie did not get involved in the central atlantic weakness anymore on the euro or GFS. GFS OP is east of most the ensembles FWIW. Overall, I think it's a rare setup which has more time for changes in the short-mid term where it matters. Even if the thing gets sheared out to a weak TS...the steering factors (even the BAMS) show northward to northeastward motion in the day 3 to day 5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 The 4-day stall will be astoundingly fun. How many "regular" and "banter" threads will we need? I think it will eventually p*ss more weenies off than anything else when it very likely fails to produce a U.S. threat. They will be wishing it to get out or die. Mark my words. By the way, rainstorm is having fun with this likelihood now at another BB. It is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I'm somewhat surprised by the 12z GFS which brings back the epic stall, and would likely impact Canada as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Most of the major global models seem further west with track this go 'round, but that really only affects Bermuda (and maybe Newfoundland or Maritimes much later). Already starting to recurve by near landfall for Bermuda, on the 12z EC anyway. Looks a bit better organized than the anemic 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Naked swirl alert? I think the low-level circulation has decoupled from convection but it's hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Looks like a complete decoupling, ouch. It'll probably drift further west now though, low level steering currents are westerly. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm1&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 J. Dunion's 6-hour brightness temperature analysis suggests cloud tops have warmed in the core of Leslie in the range of 60-80 deg K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Looks like a complete decoupling, ouch. It'll probably drift further west now though, low level steering currents are westerly. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm1&zoom=&time= Are the implications for sne or ec hit in general large with weakening or is it not really significant enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Leslie has so much time to develop, she'll make us all proud; still thinking she is the first major of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Are the implications for sne or ec hit in general large with weakening or is it not really significant enough? That large trough being forecasted to dig along the east coast will probably override virtually everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Just like Ernesto, the forward speed of this system may also hurt it in the end, as the system may be moving too quickly for the circulations to vertically stack and for this thing to really intensify in the near-term. Not a bad forecast actually.. Leslie has weakened since the last advisory, and the circulations are possibly starting to get decoupled, as one meteorologist mentioned in a prior post. Wind shear has not been helping this storm out at all, and is probably the main reason for why this storm has not intensified further. Certainly, with a forward motion at nearly 20 mph, that doesn't really help the system very much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Just a hair west with the 0z GGEM compared to 0z. last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Better picture of the GGEM @ 144 hrs 00z ECM @ 168 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 That large trough being forecasted to dig along the east coast will probably override virtually everything else. Key word here is forecasted. Nothing is set in stone yet. As we saw with Isaac, the early guidence was for an east coast hit, and look where he ended up. **Disclamer-this is not a wishcast** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Key word here is forecasted. Nothing is set in stone yet. As we saw with Isaac, the early guidence was for an east coast hit, and look where he ended up. **Disclamer-this is not a wishcast** It's seems pretty apparent and which has been advertised for a couple days that a TUTT will ride ENE from the FL/GA coast on Fri/Sat and drag a cold front with it out to sea. This really has almost no hope of reaching the EC of the US. Even Maine or Cape Cod has very low odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Naked swirl getting covered with convection again. GFS seems to like it in 6 days when it is near Bermuda. Looks like a near miss East, but I take away slow moving near Bermuda and a global showing 960s central pressure and figure it has a chance to nudge a little closer to Bermuda in the next few days' model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Just missed the Hebert box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Naked swirl getting covered with convection again. GFS seems to like it in 6 days when it is near Bermuda. Looks like a near miss East, but I take away slow moving near Bermuda and a global showing 960s central pressure and figure it has a chance to nudge a little closer to Bermuda in the next few days' model runs. Is your glass half-full optimism returning? 12z GFS has alot room for changes in timing and synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Is your glass half-full optimism returning? 12z GFS has alot room for changes in timing and synoptic setup. Weenie style quarter full optimistic looking at GFS heights about Hour 180, when Leslie could almost get caught in the Ohio Valley trough. And bonus, 2 week GFS hints at another Tampico Tantalizer for Josh. I will say, I fear I may be getting almost JoeBa optimistic seeing storm the GFS recurves shortly later, and imaging the trough being a little tighter/negative tilt and hitting somewhere from the Southeast. Almost snow weeniesh in talking about trough evolution. Off to the beach, and my wife's ipad crawls on download speed at Popo's Playa Party Pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 I know it's out of your folks region of expertise but what's it look like for the canadian maritimes? Possible Nfld hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Here's an analog map. Nothing really matches up, as most of these storms either took a sharp curve, or were guided around a ridge and continued northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 It is indeed a very anomalous setup, will be interesting to watch it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 12z CMC radically shifted west of previous cycles. It's interesting; it's attempting that lesser likely scenario I outlined the other day (earlier in this thread). Well see.. The GFS, however, is tantalizing as it digs a trough into the OV, in such a lat/lon that "if" Leslie were in fact successful in not curving at the hands of the earlier weakness there could interaction that way. Determinism aside (and there isn't much) these runs demonstrate that there is still a lot of uncertainty with how Leslie will interact with the westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 12z CMC radically shifted west of previous cycles. It's interesting; it's attempting that lesser likely scenario I outlined the other day (earlier in this thread). Well see.. The GFS, however, is tantalizing as it digs a trough into the OV, in such a lat/lon that "if" Leslie were in fact successful in not curving at the hands of the earlier weakness there could interaction that way. Determinism aside (and there isn't much) these runs demonstrate that there is still a lot of uncertainty with how Leslie will interact with the westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Still have a hard time seeing this as anything close to an EC threat. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Just to be clear... The 12z CMC doesn't even touch the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Still have a hard time seeing this as anything close to an EC threat. Maybe I'm wrong. Too much error involved at this range to forecast anything in my opinion, all we know for now is that it will move slowly over the open Atlantic south of Bermuda for 5 days and probably intensify. Whether it gets whisked out to sea by a trough or a ridge builds in to the north and pushes it into the east coast remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Just to be clear...The 12z CMC doesn't even touch the east coast. it's the westward trend were pointing out that is evident in many models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Bermuda gets the right quad of the center on the 12z ECMWF by 126 hours. Looks very Fabian-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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