wxmx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Some Bermudians I talked with were actually more frightened by Emily (1987) than by Fabian (2003). While only a high end Cat 1...it was a rapidly intensifying, very fast moving, microcane with embedded tornadoes. It was also a surprise...and it's major effect lasted only about an hour. Yep, every 'cane is different, you can't just make a generalization, but if put in words without going through every single combination of strength/trajectory/state/severe/rain/etc, that was my rough assessment of a historic vs disruptive 'cane for bermudians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Some Bermudians I talked with were actually more frightened by Emily (1987) than by Fabian (2003). While only a high end Cat 1...it was a rapidly intensifying, very fast moving, microcane with embedded tornadoes. It was also a surprise...and it's major effect lasted only about an hour. Emily was totally hawt-- actually a lot like Ernie on the Yucatan-- like you said, a fast-moving microcane. The eye passed right over the island, separated by two 10-min periods of hurricane winds measured at the airport. Historic is a tough word...Bermuda hurricanes of 1899 (pressure of 939mb recorded), and 1839 (surge of 11 ft) may be have stronger than Fabian. edit: 1926 Havana-Bermuda is also a candidate. Just for reference, the reanalyzed intensities of these hurricanes as they passed over/near Bermuda: 1899: 939 mb/105 kt 1926: 962 mb/105 kt So, yeah, both of these systems were stronger than Fabian's 100 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 1926: 962 mb/105 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Emily was totally hawt-- actually a lot like Ernie on the Yucatan-- like you said, a fast-moving microcane. The eye passed right over the island, separated by two 10-min periods of hurricane winds measured at the airport. Just for reference, the reanalyzed intensities of these hurricanes as they passed over/near Bermuda: 1899: 939 mb/105 kt 1926: 962 mb/105 mb So, yeah, both of these systems were stronger than Fabian's 100 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Emily was totally hawt-- actually a lot like Ernie on the Yucatan-- like you said, a fast-moving microcane. The eye passed right over the island, separated by two 10-min periods of hurricane winds measured at the airport. Just for reference, the reanalyzed intensities of these hurricanes as they passed over/near Bermuda: 1899: 939 mb/105 kt 1926: 962 mb/105 mb So, yeah, both of these systems were stronger than Fabian's 100 kt. have both of those been accepted to the best track committee? pretty cool...105 kt/962mb is a surprising relation, especially at Bermuda's latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 have both of those been accepted to the best track committee? pretty cool...105 kt/962mb is a surprising relation, especially at Bermuda's latitude. Yes, both are official. Reanalysis results are ratified up through (and including) 1935. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 962 mb/105 kt is quite normal. And as has been stated, every hurricane is different. Factors like ambient pressure, dimensions (especially RMW and gale radius), forward speed, and intensity trend all affect the wind speeds. EDIT: Ah, never mind-- I see what you meant. Typo fixed, wiseguy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 962 mb/105 kt is quite normal. And as has been stated, every hurricane is different. Factors like ambient pressure, dimensions (especially RMW and gale radius), forward speed, and intensity trend all affect the wind speeds. EDIT: Ah, never mind-- I see what you meant. Typo fixed, wiseguy. Still not as bad as 950.3 mb at 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 bouy reports and direction show this was mostly kirk's swell abating (it was more due Easterly in nature) it can be identified as kirk's by the period and direction the period is longer today because the first of leslie's swell (originating from further away) is hitting the bouys near nantucket and SNE and the waters off maine/ maritimes. this period will drop into the 13 second range later. yes it is going to rock and roll swell wise for several days , alot of the swell energy is focused NNW of the storm center as it would appear the best fetch of higher winds are in in the E quadrant with screamin SSE winds for a good fetch for the last several days pointin right at RI/ Cape cod/ Maine. 50-60 mph winds can create very large ocean waves when the fetch and duration is significant. just ask hawaii Solid post have been waiting all day to get on the comp to respond. This is going to be a major East Coast swell event. On par with Bill 2009 but certainly longer lasting which should lead to more erosion/damage. You hit the nail on the head as to why we have (There were already 6 foot waves and wash-overs at Jones Beach NY today) and will continue to see what seems to be an anomalously large swell for a 65mph tropical storm. Its the huge wind field in the SE quadrant (where all the persistent convection has been) pointed right at the North East. Moving forward, as Leslie gets moving we can add 3 more factors to the swell size potential in the North East. 1. Forecast strengthening of maximum sustained winds and an increase in in wind field. Stronger winds blowing over a larger fetch will generate an increasingly larger swell. 2. Distance between generation point and the coast effected decreases, hence less swell decay. 3. Wave setup. As Leslie begins to move in the direction of the North East this weekend individual wave trains contained in the SE quadrant will begin to move with the storm as the storms forward speed increases. This increases the effective fetch before these wave trains are expelled from the storm. All in all I think the North East is in for a major damaging swell/beach erosion event. (Possibly as much as a once in a decade non land falling tropical event) Though there are distinct differences between Bill 2009 I think the net result will be the same. Bill likely had a larger peak swell size but less duration. Beach erosion inn the North East can be highly dependent on the number of high tide cycles an event occurs over and we have many many to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I always thought it was pretty rediculous to use the raw Hurrevac winds on a public/marine forecast this far out. http://www.weather.bm/forecastmarineextended.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Models have trended farther east...now it looks like Leslie might miss Bermuda to the east. Euro is still almost a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Leslie looking much better on vis. Center may be on Western edge of convection, but it is completely covered, and convection is taking on that boiled prawn appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Yep, we could get two hurricane upgrades before the day ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Leslie looking much better on vis. Center may be on Western edge of convection, but it is completely covered, and convection is taking on that boiled prawn appearance. It does look like it is wrapping convection all around the center this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 looks like a small eye has formed It does look like it is wrapping convection all around the center this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 From the 11am discussion the vertical shear affecting Leslie has been gradually decreasing this morning...which has allowed a banding eye feature to develop in visible satellite imagery. However...a 0944 UTC ssmis microwave overpass indicated the mid-level eye feature was displaced about 12-18 nmi east of the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are a consensus t3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB...and the latest ADT estimate is t4.3/72 kt. The initial intensity of 60 kt is a blend of these values...and Leslie is being held just below hurricane intensity due to the eastward-tilted vortex column. Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201212.disc.html#wQOlHxqrkgFf5FXW.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 There is a degreed met on Twitter who says the NAM "looks scary"... Edit to Add- I just checked the NAM, and indeed, through 3 1/2 days, Leslie heads WNW towards the United States. Perhaps, taking a charitable view, said Penn State alum was not endorsing the NAM as a tropical model, just throwing out the hypothetical "if the NAM were ever right", it would be scary". Always trying to take the charitable view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 There is a degreed met on Twitter who says the NAM "looks scary"... So what's your cup sayeth about Leslie......3 millionths full??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 So what's your cup sayeth about Leslie......3 millionths full??? Last Saturday's 12Z GFS (I think) came very close to the Ohio Valley trough capturing Leslie and pulling it from the SE into New England. I think it was 3/16th full then. Since then, the cup has sprungeth a leak. Natural born optimism, cup 3/512ths full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Last Saturday's 12Z GFS (I think) came very close to the Ohio Valley trough capturing Leslie and pulling it from the SE into New England. I think it was 3/16th full then. Since then, the cup has sprungeth a leak. Natural born optimism, cup 3/512ths full. If only 10% of all h168+ runs of the GFS could verify, the EC would be obliterated and covered in 10' of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 If only 10% of all h168+ runs of the GFS could verify, the EC would be obliterated and covered in 10' of snow! In defense of the the GFS, it didn't actually hit the ECUSA. I was almost in Winter Storm weenie mode about the trough being just a little different than shown on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 12z GFS nudged west, and is very close to the east of Bermuda...if 12z Euro is over or just to the west of BDA, I think a serious blow will be on store for the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 12z GFS nudged west, and is very close to the east of Bermuda...if 12z Euro is over or just to the west of BDA, I think a serious blow will be on store for the island. Could be a good FB site to "like". Going to Bermuda... https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Royal Gazette story. http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20120905/NEWS/709059949 A top level meeting to discuss the approaching Tropical Storm Leslie is to be held later today. National Security Minister Wayne Perinchief will head up the Emergency Measures Organisation gathering and will be accompanied by Commissioner of Police, Michael DeSilva, the Director of Operations for the EMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 NOW A HURRICANE HURRICANE LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 145 PM AST WED SEP 5 2012 CORRECTED LATITUDE IN SUMMARY INFORMATION ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS INTO THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LESLIE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SUMMARY OF 145 PM AST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 62.5W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 New Euro has Leslie at 942, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 12z Euro is a bit east, now almost over or just a few miles east of BDA Edit: Looking at higher resolution it looks like it's around 50mi east of BDA...in the weaker side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 12z Euro is a bit east, now almost over or just a few miles east of BDA Yep, massive wind field, 400 miles top to bottom with gales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Euro/GFS both have a pretty serious hit for Newfoundland too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 12z Euro is a bit east, now almost over or just a few miles east of BDA Edit: Looking at higher resolution it looks like it's around 50mi east of BDA...in the weaker side. Euro depiction is such that BMD is in the higher wind field, about 35-50 miles from the center, not in RFQ but in NW quad.90 hrs out so wobbles and path questionable Close one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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