Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 850mb winds are 118 knots, which would mix down to about 109mph at the surface. Strong cat 2/marginal cat 3. (144 hours) The map I'm looking at shows 133 kts at 850mb at hr 144. 149 kts at hr168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 My take is that if it bypasses Bermuda, it will be to the left, not to the right. Also, it looks like it will be a highly disruptive hurricane for Bermuda, due to it's big size and slow motion, probably more disruptive than Igor if the track is less than 80 miles from Bermuda...sort of like Isaac, but potentially stronger. Igor was huge and a slow mover, also. Just remains to be seen if Leslie is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 850mb winds are 118 knots, which would mix down to about 109mph at the surface. Strong cat 2/marginal cat 3. (144 hours) Was a tongue in cheek comment. But central pressure (920mb) is quite disconnected from winds, and my guess is that resolution on winds in your source is probably too coarse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I have relatives in Nova Scotia, will inform them to keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks like the Euro rides about 68W as it moves due north at about 34N. Far enough from Bermuda to miss the worst effects. Perhaps a Bill type track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks like the Euro rides about 68W as it moves due north at about 34N. Far enough from Bermuda to miss the worst effects. Perhaps a Bill type track? Yep, though Leslie is big enough so that they are in the fringe of the 35-40m/s winds (sustained)...that's hurricane force winds still. GFS is well to the right, so we'll probably see some correction...my guess is that the bulk of the correction will be from the GFS, though there will probably be some from the westernmost models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 just did a loop on leslie and looks like it took a nice jog to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Yep, though Leslie is big enough so that they are in the fringe of the 35-40m/s winds (sustained)...that's hurricane force winds still. GFS is well to the right, so we'll probably see some correction...my guess is that the bulk of the correction will be from the GFS, though there will probably be some from the westernmost models. I don't agree with this analysis of the models. The GFS track forecast is not valid as it moves Leslie to 60W; there will be no correction, only a complete bust from the GFS, IMO. ^Leslie is currently stationary but not moving east as the GFS would imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 just did a loop on leslie and looks like it took a nice jog to the west No, convection is building west, trying to cover the LLC...Leslie hasn't moved much in the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I don't agree with this analysis of the models. The GFS track forecast is not valid as it moves Leslie to 60W; there will be no correction, only a complete bust from the GFS, IMO. Looks like we are all set then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Does anyone think that their still could be a US landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Was a tongue in cheek comment. But central pressure (920mb) is quite disconnected from winds, and my guess is that resolution on winds in your source is probably too coarse. Wunderground has a 916mb contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Seriously now, after Riptide's analysis, it looks like models aren't that different with the synoptic setup, the main difference is that from now, until day 4 steering currents are very weak...the Euro drifts north, and the GFS drift NNE..and also a little farther north...by day 4 ridge builds north of Leslie and start to move it NW, but the starting point is quite apart in both models by that time, so the outcome is very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Wunderground has a 916mb contour. Is that a record for the Euro? Larry (GaWx) should know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Is that a record for the Euro? Larry (GaWx) should know. nah I remember a few storms being lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Does anyone think that their still could be a US landfall? No for all locations but Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Jorge, I'd have a hard time believing Bermuda would get hurricane winds with a track that far away...you're talking about 150nm or so at that point. I think Bermuda saw about 50 kt sustained in Bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Shear conditions might finally be relaxing...SHIPS initialized with 23 kt of shear at 18z...but it falls under 20 kt at 00z and remains that way through the period. Shear averages about 5 kt from 48 hours onward, very favorable for intensification. SHIPS maxes out at 88 kt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Jorge, I'd have a hard time believing Bermuda would get hurricane winds with a track that far away...you're talking about 150nm or so at that point. I think Bermuda saw about 50 kt sustained in Bill. Yep, I agree...this is the graph where I based my affirmation from (darkest green is 35-40m/s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Btw, while I do believe the GFS and the hurricane models are probably too far east, the GFS does not get Leslie to 60W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 No for all locations but Cape Cod. Not to be an utter weenie, but we're talking about an error cone for an 8 day forecast, so further West than Cape Cod (or an actual hit on Maine) certainly isn't out of the question, though it's far more likely that it misses completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The Wunderground maps for the 12z EURO shows Bermuda seeing 40-45kt sustained winds for roughly 12 hours. To me, that would imply gusts to 70+ MPH, although they definitely only receive a glancing blow. If the west trend continues I'll get excited, as the 12z EURO is both significantly slower and slightly further west. For now, Leslie is a definite fish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Not to be an utter weenie, but we're talking about an error cone for an 8 day forecast, so further West than Cape Cod (or an actual hit on Maine) certainly isn't out of the question, though it's far more likely that it misses completely. Climatologically speaking, west of Cape-Cod would be 1938 territory and I'm not ready to accept it just yet. Mabye in a few days if the models remain consistent. A few tropical cyclones have hit the northeast coast from the SE as well, which is different from 1938. This makes it seem even more unlikely for a more western track because Leslie would need to travel NW because it starts at a very eastern position; unlike 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The Wunderground maps for the 12z EURO shows Bermuda seeing 40-45kt sustained winds for roughly 12 hours. To me, that would imply gusts to 70+ MPH, although they definitely only receive a glancing blow. If the west trend continues I'll get excited, as the 12z EURO is both significantly slower and slightly further west. For now, Leslie is a definite fish... Bermuda saw several winter storms during my tenure there that were as bad or worse than that. They handled Igor just fine and we had hurricane force sustained in that. It takes a real storm there to really do serious damage because of the construction standards and the reef around the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 new NHC track shifted slightly west...and has the intensity of 85 kt at 30.5N/65.0W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Bermuda saw several winter storms during my tenure there that were as bad or worse than that. They handled Igor just fine and we had hurricane force sustained in that. It takes a real storm there to really do serious damage because of the construction standards and the reef around the island. Yeah and not only that, it seems like every other year or three Bermuda gets a "glancing blow" TC of 25-40mph sustained. Fabian was anomalous, a dead-nuts cat 3? and the worst 'cane since like 1936? or something like that. Anyway, Bermuda rarely takes a severe hit, and overall the Euro type track is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Yeah and not only that, it seems like every other year or three Bermuda gets a "glancing blow" TC of 25-40mph sustained. Fabian was anomalous, a dead-nuts cat 3? and the worst 'cane since like 1936? or something like that. Anyway, Bermuda rarely takes a severe hit, and overall the Euro type track is plausible. Considering Bermuda is such a small piece of land, it isn't surprising that Fabian was such an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Yeah and not only that, it seems like every other year or three Bermuda gets a "glancing blow" TC of 25-40mph sustained. Fabian was anomalous, a dead-nuts cat 3? and the worst 'cane since like 1936? or something like that. Anyway, Bermuda rarely takes a severe hit, and overall the Euro type track is plausible. 1926 Havana-Bermuda is probably the worst in modern history. Shakespeare's The Tempest was also partially based on the wrecking of the Sea Venture on Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks like the small warmish area of convection in orange in the middle of the red blob of convection is an overshooting top cloud into the stratosphere...pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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