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Central PA thread - Spring-like weather now, but...

NortheastPAWx

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
Posted

NWS is saying localized flooding, but it's gotta be pretty bad. At least a foot of rain on Pine Creek tributaries??? Some reports of 14 to 16.

Radar estimate on Wunderground maxes out at 18.3" west of Liberty. A few inches of that is hail contamination, but still seriously impressive totals.

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Hoar_Frost

Hoar_Frost

Posted
Posted

I saw several hailstones to nickel size (but most pea size) at around 4:30 in west State College, near College Avenue and Blue Course Drive. As noted above, there was not too much wind with this storm, but there were several cloud-to-ground lightning strokes and very heavy rain (which, if I had to guess, amounted to 1.25-1.75" at my location). I will see whether I can find out what was received in terms of rainfall on top of the Walker Building tomorrow.

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

Where is Liberty, PA /Pine Credk? Never heard of either.

Did you ever hear of Wellsboro, i think Liberty would be close to there.

I know Pine Creek that runs through the Waterville Area, which is in Lycoming County, which borders Tioga. Someone mentioned rt 220 and 44. You could pick up rt 220 at Williamsport, head west to pick up 44 which would take you into Waterville. If you have never been up there, you need to take your wife for a ride in the fall.

http://www.pinecreekvalley.com/default.aspx

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

Not as fun walking down pollock road and getting caught in it :lol::axe: I am soaked

I was caught in a heavy downpour walking from Walker toward Eastview Terrace years ago... some girl offered me her umbrella by south halls... I was so soaked at that point I dont think that me not using an umbrella would have made me any wetter!

Has anyone seen SPC's outlook for tomorrow?

post-285-0-42388500-1347021228_thumb.gif

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Hoar_Frost

Hoar_Frost

Posted
Posted

I saw several hailstones to nickel size (but most pea size) at around 4:30 in west State College, near College Avenue and Blue Course Drive. As noted above, there was not too much wind with this storm, but there were several cloud-to-ground lightning strokes and very heavy rain (which, if I had to guess, amounted to 1.25-1.75" at my location). I will see whether I can find out what was received in terms of rainfall on top of the Walker Building tomorrow.

According to the CO-OP observer himself, whom I saw entering the data into WxCoder when I was in the Weather Center, there was 0.42" on the southwest part of the Penn State campus just north of the corner of Atherton and College. If you looked at the radar estimate, and believed it, like I did somewhat foolishly, my original call of 1.25-1.75" would be reasonable. As evidenced here, there is much to be said for hail contamination inflating radar-based rainfall estimates.

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Jmister

Jmister

Posted
Posted

Walker officially measured 0.45" during the time of the storm (4:15 to 4:38pm).

Rain per minute rate column in bold

9/06/12 4:14p 80.5 80.6 80.5 83 74.9 5.0 SE 0.08 8.0 80.5 86.2 86.2 29.780 0.01 0.000 0.011 76.1 --- 1

9/06/12 4:15p 80.4 80.5 80.4 83 74.8 5.0 SE 0.08 8.0 80.4 86.0 86.0 29.779 0.01 0.000 0.011 76.1 --- 1

9/06/12 4:17p 80.1 80.2 80.0 86 75.5 3.0 SE 0.05 4.0 80.1 86.1 86.1 29.780 0.01 0.000 0.010 76.1 --- 1

9/06/12 4:18p 79.8 79.9 79.6 86 75.2 4.0 SSE 0.07 7.0 79.8 85.5 85.5 29.780 0.02 0.000 0.010 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:19p 79.5 79.6 79.4 87 75.3 5.0 SSE 0.08 7.0 79.5 85.1 85.1 29.779 0.02 0.000 0.010 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:20p 79.2 79.4 79.0 89 75.7 4.0 SSE 0.07 6.0 79.2 84.9 84.9 29.779 0.01 0.000 0.010 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:22p 78.4 78.5 78.3 90 75.2 2.0 SSE 0.03 4.0 78.4 83.6 83.6 29.781 0.00 0.000 0.009 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:23p 78.1 78.3 77.9 91 75.3 2.0 SSE 0.03 5.0 78.1 83.1 83.1 29.784 0.01 0.000 0.009 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:24p 77.8 77.9 77.7 91 75.0 4.0 SSE 0.07 6.0 77.8 82.6 82.6 29.785 0.01 0.000 0.009 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:25p 77.6 77.7 77.5 93 75.4 6.0 SSE 0.10 9.0 77.6 82.4 82.4 29.781 0.00 0.000 0.009 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:26p 77.4 77.5 77.3 93 75.2 5.0 S 0.08 8.0 77.4 82.0 82.0 29.784 0.02 0.000 0.009 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:27p 77.3 77.3 77.2 94 75.4 4.0 S 0.07 8.0 77.3 82.0 82.0 29.781 0.02 0.000 0.009 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:28p 77.1 77.2 77.1 95 75.6 4.0 S 0.07 6.0 77.1 81.7 81.7 29.785 0.02 0.000 0.008 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:29p 76.9 77.0 76.6 96 75.7 7.0 S 0.12 11.0 76.9 81.5 81.5 29.786 0.06 0.000 0.008 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:30p 76.5 76.6 76.3 94 74.6 4.0 SSW 0.07 7.0 76.5 80.7 80.7 29.789 0.04 0.000 0.008 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:31p 76.0 76.2 75.8 92 73.5 5.0 SSW 0.08 8.0 76.0 79.7 79.7 29.793 0.03 0.000 0.008 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:32p 75.6 75.8 75.4 91 72.8 4.0 WSW 0.07 7.0 75.6 79.1 79.1 29.787 0.06 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:33p 75.3 75.4 75.2 86 70.8 6.0 NNW 0.10 9.0 75.3 78.4 78.4 29.782 0.04 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:34p 75.2 75.2 75.2 83 69.7 5.0 N 0.08 7.0 75.2 78.1 78.1 29.778 0.03 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:35p 75.2 75.2 75.1 81 69.0 6.0 N 0.10 8.0 75.2 77.9 77.9 29.774 0.02 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:37p 75.2 75.2 75.1 80 68.6 2.0 N 0.03 6.0 75.2 77.8 77.8 29.772 0.00 0.000 0.007 75.7 --- 1

9/06/12 4:38p 75.3 75.4 75.2 78 68.0 2.0 N 0.03 5.0 75.3 77.7 77.7 29.771 0.01 0.000 0.007 75.7 --- 1

Walker building weather data: http://climate.met.psu.edu/realtime/walker/walker.html

Here in Tofrees, only about 2 miles north of campus, we had no hail and barely any rain!

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Moderate risk now up for tomorrow:

post-1507-0-60205600-1347040705_thumb.gi

post-1507-0-23856800-1347040721_thumb.gi

Significant severe winds look to be the primary threat along a likely squall line associated with the sharp cold front that will be traversing PA tomorrow. Dynamics with this system are very impressive. Anything that develops enough to tap that screaming low-mid level jet is going to deliver some big time winds. Only issue could be cloudcover developing early that impedes CAPE, which CTP acknowledges in pretty good detail in the short term. My guess is that could be the case more so in the central while the eastern zones get out into good sun. Either way, there is likely to be enough clearing prior to the frontal passage to have a good squall line going right with the front. If folks (esp in the east and northeast) get/stay in some good sun tomorrow i'd watch for any cellular development out ahead of the front, as dynamics would support possible tornadoes.

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Hoar_Frost

Hoar_Frost

Posted
Posted

Walker officially measured 0.45" during the time of the storm (4:15 to 4:38pm).

Rain per minute rate column in bold

9/06/12 4:14p 80.5 80.6 80.5 83 74.9 5.0 SE 0.08 8.0 80.5 86.2 86.2 29.780 0.01 0.000 0.011 76.1 --- 1

9/06/12 4:15p 80.4 80.5 80.4 83 74.8 5.0 SE 0.08 8.0 80.4 86.0 86.0 29.779 0.01 0.000 0.011 76.1 --- 1

9/06/12 4:17p 80.1 80.2 80.0 86 75.5 3.0 SE 0.05 4.0 80.1 86.1 86.1 29.780 0.01 0.000 0.010 76.1 --- 1

9/06/12 4:18p 79.8 79.9 79.6 86 75.2 4.0 SSE 0.07 7.0 79.8 85.5 85.5 29.780 0.02 0.000 0.010 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:19p 79.5 79.6 79.4 87 75.3 5.0 SSE 0.08 7.0 79.5 85.1 85.1 29.779 0.02 0.000 0.010 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:20p 79.2 79.4 79.0 89 75.7 4.0 SSE 0.07 6.0 79.2 84.9 84.9 29.779 0.01 0.000 0.010 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:22p 78.4 78.5 78.3 90 75.2 2.0 SSE 0.03 4.0 78.4 83.6 83.6 29.781 0.00 0.000 0.009 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:23p 78.1 78.3 77.9 91 75.3 2.0 SSE 0.03 5.0 78.1 83.1 83.1 29.784 0.01 0.000 0.009 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:24p 77.8 77.9 77.7 91 75.0 4.0 SSE 0.07 6.0 77.8 82.6 82.6 29.785 0.01 0.000 0.009 76.0 --- 1

9/06/12 4:25p 77.6 77.7 77.5 93 75.4 6.0 SSE 0.10 9.0 77.6 82.4 82.4 29.781 0.00 0.000 0.009 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:26p 77.4 77.5 77.3 93 75.2 5.0 S 0.08 8.0 77.4 82.0 82.0 29.784 0.02 0.000 0.009 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:27p 77.3 77.3 77.2 94 75.4 4.0 S 0.07 8.0 77.3 82.0 82.0 29.781 0.02 0.000 0.009 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:28p 77.1 77.2 77.1 95 75.6 4.0 S 0.07 6.0 77.1 81.7 81.7 29.785 0.02 0.000 0.008 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:29p 76.9 77.0 76.6 96 75.7 7.0 S 0.12 11.0 76.9 81.5 81.5 29.786 0.06 0.000 0.008 75.9 --- 1

9/06/12 4:30p 76.5 76.6 76.3 94 74.6 4.0 SSW 0.07 7.0 76.5 80.7 80.7 29.789 0.04 0.000 0.008 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:31p 76.0 76.2 75.8 92 73.5 5.0 SSW 0.08 8.0 76.0 79.7 79.7 29.793 0.03 0.000 0.008 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:32p 75.6 75.8 75.4 91 72.8 4.0 WSW 0.07 7.0 75.6 79.1 79.1 29.787 0.06 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:33p 75.3 75.4 75.2 86 70.8 6.0 NNW 0.10 9.0 75.3 78.4 78.4 29.782 0.04 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:34p 75.2 75.2 75.2 83 69.7 5.0 N 0.08 7.0 75.2 78.1 78.1 29.778 0.03 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:35p 75.2 75.2 75.1 81 69.0 6.0 N 0.10 8.0 75.2 77.9 77.9 29.774 0.02 0.000 0.007 75.8 --- 1

9/06/12 4:37p 75.2 75.2 75.1 80 68.6 2.0 N 0.03 6.0 75.2 77.8 77.8 29.772 0.00 0.000 0.007 75.7 --- 1

9/06/12 4:38p 75.3 75.4 75.2 78 68.0 2.0 N 0.03 5.0 75.3 77.7 77.7 29.771 0.01 0.000 0.007 75.7 --- 1

Walker building weather data: http://climate.met.p...ker/walker.html

Here in Tofrees, only about 2 miles north of campus, we had no hail and barely any rain!

Thanks for posting the link to the Walker Building data. I had been wondering where to find that.

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r-ville

r-ville

Posted
Posted

12z GFS Skew T soundings say - Rock on NY/PA

Low level clouds could be a small spoiler for Western Susq Vly regions with the lower CAPE values - south of the SC line, but northern Susq regions have similar bad news ala vorticity, RH combo. Eastern regions likely to get in on the best forcing as Mag said earlier. Whoever catches the front edge of the jet will get slammed (early call on Wmsprt).

Expecting lots of towers in the sky tomorrow and many region wide damage reports.

Stay safe as always.

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
Posted

12z GFS Skew T soundings say - Rock on NY/PA

Low level clouds could be a small spoiler for Western Susq Vly regions with the lower CAPE values - south of the SC line, but northern Susq regions have similar bad news ala vorticity, RH combo. Eastern regions likely to get in on the best forcing as Mag said earlier. Whoever catches the front edge of the jet will get slammed (early call on Wmsprt).

Expecting lots of towers in the sky tomorrow and many region wide damage reports.

Stay safe as always.

Looks interesting for sure. I have an outdoor wedding to attend in Lancaster County at 5PM tomorrow...should be fun.

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

Posted
Posted

Ouch. God luck on all that.

Wonder how our old pal Potter has enjoyed this week? Finally got hot in Texas.

Ughh it can go away lol. I have been west of Brownsville for a month and it has been near 100F most of the days. Took a peak at the GFS today and thought I would chime in here for a bit. Severe wx looks promising and a very nice cool down is on the way. Wouldn't be surprised if a Low of 40F on Monday night back around potter.

I'm getting bounced around down here quite a bit, lots of traveling around Texas, and I get to go to Alaska in the middle of October for a month :weight_lift:

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Ughh it can go away lol. I have been west of Brownsville for a month and it has been near 100F most of the days. Took a peak at the GFS today and thought I would chime in here for a bit. Severe wx looks promising and a very nice cool down is on the way. Wouldn't be surprised if a Low of 40F on Monday night back around potter.

I'm getting bounced around down here quite a bit, lots of traveling around Texas, and I get to go to Alaska in the middle of October for a month :weight_lift:

I agree, maybe even upper 30s somewhere.

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

Posted
Posted

I agree, maybe even upper 30s somewhere.

Quite possible, it looks to be a pretty vigorous cold front so it will be interesting to see how low it gets. It isn't like it would be totally out of the ordinary, I mean places in northern PA have seen frost and even freezes early September many a times albiet years ago.

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