MAG5035 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 How close was that tornado to you, eastern? In other news, we got some beneficial rains Sunday and Monday - I got a total of 1.29, much more than I expected. I guess the jury is still out on whether we get anything rain from Isaac. 5 day HPC certainly seems to show a chance that this arcs our way. It looks like at the moment we're at least going to see a good influx of very humid tropical air and the potential for increased and perhaps widespread thunderstorm activity by later in the weekend. That alone would suggest the possibility of tropical rains from these storms and maybe severe potential given we'll likely be on the eastern side of whatever's left . As far as any of the traditional impacts like a prolonged rain/wind event from say an in tact but decaying storm core I don't feel that's very likely for us. We'd have to see this thing make a pretty quick turn and really pick up speed to have a chance of seeing anything like that, but the eventual locations of the inland impacts are hardly set in stone. Currently it's trying to prolong itself painstakingly running parallel to the LA coast. This is probably going to be one of those storms that's going to be hard to kill given the very deep, yet broad pressure field. The New Orleans levee system is going to get a stiff and prolonged test from Isaac. I guess one bit of good news is that this is shaping up to rain on a region that desperately needs rain once it moves inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 5 day HPC certainly seems to show a chance that this arcs our way. It looks like at the moment we're at least going to see a good influx of very humid tropical air and the potential for increased and perhaps widespread thunderstorm activity by later in the weekend. That alone would suggest the possibility of tropical rains from these storms and maybe severe potential given we'll likely be on the eastern side of whatever's left . As far as any of the traditional impacts like a prolonged rain/wind event from say an in tact but decaying storm core I don't feel that's very likely for us. We'd have to see this thing make a pretty quick turn and really pick up speed to have a chance of seeing anything like that, but the eventual locations of the inland impacts are hardly set in stone. Currently it's trying to prolong itself painstakingly running parallel to the LA coast. This is probably going to be one of those storms that's going to be hard to kill given the very deep, yet broad pressure field. The New Orleans levee system is going to get a stiff and prolonged test from Isaac. I guess one bit of good news is that this is shaping up to rain on a region that desperately needs rain once it moves inland. i was watching some good footage this am. Jim Cantore being pushed around by the wind. I heard some rainfall estimates are up to 20" maybe? that will definitly put a test on the Levee's and pumping system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 How close was that tornado to you, eastern? In other news, we got some beneficial rains Sunday and Monday - I got a total of 1.29, much more than I expected. I guess the jury is still out on whether we get anything rain from Isaac. It was about 3-4 miles away. Would have chased it but was at work. Of course... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Bring on 40 degree nights, I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Bring on 40 degree nights, I say. I have to work outside in the 40° mornings, so I'll take those starting in November. 50°+ is fine for the next couple of months. Beautiful day today, looks hot tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 It was about 3-4 miles away. Would have chased it but was at work. Of course... lol Yeah, that's how it always is, dammit. Bring on 40 degree nights, I say. We broke 50 for the first time since May yesterday am. Sort of unusual for us to not have a reading or two below 50 during the June/July/August time period. As Elliot Abrams would say, the first advances by the rebels of Autumn against the kingdom of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 Bring on 40 degree nights, I say. This. Living in an un-AC'd dorm has caused me to shed my warminista side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Latest HPC take on potential Isaac rainfall. Shows at least a possible general 1-3 inch rainfall over the region, and it might not be counting the whole event in central/eastern PA. As Isaac interacts with a frontal boundary it will provide the oppurtunity for a decent rainfall event as the remaining remnants eventually push along the boundary. CTP isn't too high on any widespread flooding possibilities and I wouldn't be either. All flash flood guidance is very high.. about 3-5 inches for small stream flooding in all the timeframes (1hr, 3hr, 6hr, 12hr, and 24hr) and a good bit more than that for more significant flooding in the headwaters. You can look at those resources HERE and HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Geez...no posts since Friday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Geez...no posts since Friday afternoon? It Gunna rain!! Thanks Olie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 It Gunna rain!! Thanks Olie. If your back at Shippensburg it's probably a monsoon right now. Flash Flood watch out for the lower Sus Valley. While overall amounts we get from Isaac remnants + quasi-stationary frontal boundary shouldn't instigate any kind of widespread flooding, there remains the threat for more localized issues with any training/ slow moving cells. With the really high PWATs, any convection is going to just dump rain. And it seems the last couple days that the Sus valley has had a head start with scattered heavier rainfall while alot of the central has just seen cloudy and very humid conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Got just over 3"last night, road closed in my development due to high water this morning. CTP kind of liking the Lancaster area to be in the bullseye again later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Got just over 3"last night, road closed in my development due to high water this morning. CTP kind of liking the Lancaster area to be in the bullseye again later today. This was touched on briefly in the Philly thread with regard to southern New Jersey, and it seems to apply here as well. For most of the summer, the same areas keep getting hit over and over. Not complaining, just wondering though...is there some sort of meteorological reasoning for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Love how we'll get more rain out of Isaac than a good chunk of the state it, you know, hit. Gotta love tropical system evolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Got just over 3"last night, road closed in my development due to high water this morning. CTP kind of liking the Lancaster area to be in the bullseye again later today. Same here. Maytown area is a flood zone during quick heavy rain events, everything comes off the fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 might be interesting a lil later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Still no relief from the humidity in sight - forecast comfy nights of mid-50s for the weekend have been replaced with more >60... Bueller? Anyone? Where's the relief? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 It seems FTP has busted here badly today. I've had rain for all of 2 minutes today (about an hour ago, was very light). Yet we have a flash flood watch and every forecast says "NOW: Showers and storms will move into the area shortly." It has said that since 7 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 It seems FTP has busted here badly today. I've had rain for all of 2 minutes today (about an hour ago, was very light). Yet we have a flash flood watch and every forecast says "NOW: Showers and storms will move into the area shortly." It has said that since 7 this morning. yep crazy. Even yesterday when i looked at the radar, i thought bt 530-6 we would be having heavy rain, minus a couple sprinkles, we had zip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 And now it's sunny. Major, major forecast fail for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 And now it's sunny. Major, major forecast fail for this week. maybe they'll be wrong for this Saturday as well. I really don't want rain Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 And now it's sunny. Major, major forecast fail for this week. What was your total from Sunday to this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 .25" or so IIRC. All that fell late Monday night. Had a trace last night when it sprinkled for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 .25" or so IIRC. All that fell late Monday night. Had a trace last night when it sprinkled for a few minutes. Thanks, and wow...you guys really did miss out on the rain out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Who's ready for frost and the smell of wood stoves in the morning? This guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Who's ready for frost and the smell of wood stoves in the morning? This guy. i'm in line behind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Another humid day, 82/66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Who's ready for frost and the smell of wood stoves in the morning? This guy. I'll take two, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Heckuva storm here, pouring, loud thunder, hail (mostly pea but a few quarter sized). Not much wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Dime sized hail at Penn State. Awesome experience watching it with other meteo majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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