EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The HWPC has issued a moderate risk of severe weather for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region for Saturday September 8th 2012...Widespread Severe Weather Possible... While instability maybe low and mid-level lapse rates maybe lacking, strong forcing will compensate for this. Shear will be over 40kts and EHI values will be significant. The main threat will be wind damage but, there also maybe a conditional tornado threat out ahead and along the cold front. Please keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow as it could be a very active day. Props to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wow...some wording way stronger than I anticipated for tomorrow. My only question is, with limited heating, how it destabilize enough for severe storms? The dynamics of this system will be making up for the lack of heating. And for anywhere that sees any modest heating, def look out. We have a very strong low-mid jet as well as a trough that is going to go negative tilt. So it's not going to take much to keep a squall line going with the cold front. We already have a pretty decent one going out in the central. We'll probably see that weaken before making a resurgence tomorrow. The line with the front is the primary reason for this moderate risk, as it will have the ability to tap the monster winds aloft. Further east and northeast is where I believe the focus for potential cellular development ahead of the main line will reside. Shear/helicity will be quite high in that far NE PA into upstate NY area... so if heating adds to the CAPE part of the equation, we'll be talking pretty high EHI values and an elevated tornado threat with any bigger cells that fire off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks good Zak, I see no issues with that map. If places can get some good heating during the day, things could really take off tomorrow, but that is looking bleak at the moment because of the canopy of cloud cover that is already spreading across CPA. But as MAG has already mentioned, the dynamics will overcome the lack of heating. Although I'm begining to think this area of severe wx maybe more of a threat to extreme eastern PA. I'm thinking this cold front may push through a little earlier than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Skies are ominous again over campus. Just some lightning and rain when it got here. Luckily it dissipated quickly, so the concert outside the HUB still went on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks good Zak, I see no issues with that map. If places can get some good heating during the day, things could really take off tomorrow, but that is looking bleak at the moment because of the canopy of cloud cover that is already spreading across CPA. But as MAG has already mentioned, the dynamics will overcome the lack of heating. Although I'm begining to think this area of severe wx maybe more of a threat to extreme eastern PA. I'm thinking this cold front may push through a little earlier than anticipated. Low is still in Southern Ohio and has to move north. Not expecting front till about 4pm. Nam has plenty of CAPE. Has Cape at MDT at 2000 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 SPC's d1 is out. I wholeheartedly agree with the wind percentages and the potential for gusts 65kt+ as well as the hail percentages. But going by climo as i remember it, i'm thinking the tornado percentages, i'd take the 10% a bit further north, just north of scranton/the bronx. south of scranton you just don't get too many tornadoes there. wind and hail, most certianly. but twisters, it's more favorable north of i-84/US6 than south until you get to i-78. at least imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 SPC's d1 is out. I wholeheartedly agree with the wind percentages and the potential for gusts 65kt+ as well as the hail percentages. But going by climo as i remember it, i'm thinking the tornado percentages, i'd take the 10% a bit further north, just north of scranton/the bronx. south of scranton you just don't get too many tornadoes there. wind and hail, most certianly. but twisters, it's more favorable north of i-84/US6 than south until you get to i-78. at least imho. Based on what is going on right now I'd have 5% into MD and 10% into SE pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well anyone west of Scranton can stick a fork in thunderstorms. Thick cloud deck, and front looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Severe weather prospects look bleak for those of us not in the eastern 1/3 - 1/4th of PA as the rain associated with the cold front is definitely ahead of schedule. I'm certain the new SPC outlook will shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Watch likely by late morning for C/E PA and C NY per latest MD... could be a TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Jmister I think EPA is in trouble too. All observations are overcast or fog out there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sun is peeking through over the Cap city of PA ATTM - SPC's new disco highlights many of the points I made last evening for this event. Seriously going out to check the genny b/c in my zone, my power goes out easily. A bit of a north element to the surface breeze but that could be geography playing ticks - def a strong and steady flow from the s and w - cruising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well to my surprise, no change on the 1300z outlook. I still think the western 2/3rds of this region are out of luck, but maybe the Harrisburg to Scranton area will have a better shot at having big storms developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sun peeking in and out here in Lycoming county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well to my surprise, no change on the 1300z outlook. I still think the western 2/3rds of this region are out of luck, but maybe the Harrisburg to Scranton area will have a better shot at having big storms developing. You guys are the pros, but I'm wondering if the threat is diminishing here as well. Radar indicates rain is overspreading the state already, and as indicated, it's fully overcast here in eastern Schuylkill County at 9:30AM. Looking at that radar, it also appears as if a second pre-front squall line if you will, is trying to develop. What effect would this have on later severe potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Severe weather prospects look bleak for those of us not in the eastern 1/3 - 1/4th of PA as the rain associated with the cold front is definitely ahead of schedule. I'm certain the new SPC outlook will shift east. Highly unlucky, not sure what you are seeing. Sunny here in central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Huh, the mesoscale discussion saying there was a 95% chance of a watch was dropped and not replaced with a watch after all. A line is trying to form after all extending from W NY down through around Pittsburgh with warnings in NY. That could certainly bring with it gusty-intense wind for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 That line is what I am watching...its really getting going!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Huh, the mesoscale discussion saying there was a 95% chance of a watch was dropped and not replaced with a watch after all. A line is trying to form after all extending from W NY down through around Pittsburgh with warnings in NY. That could certainly bring with it gusty-intense wind for a few minutes. They issue those things way in advance sometimes. Watch will be out by 12 i'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 new meso discussion out... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1928.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This is thick, thick cover here in Harrisburg. Whatever that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Line is getting together pretty good, we'll see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Line is getting together pretty good, we'll see what it does. Right on my doorstep. Will update when it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sun burned those clouds off pretty rapidly, holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Brief but intense squall, winds 50-55, I'd say. Large branches down. My damn Droid froze on me, couldn't video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Storm should be on campus soon, I'd figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Live stream up for the storms in Berks County, PA -- hopefully the power won't go out...http://www.ustream.tv/channel/dssbss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Just headprd a tornado warning for Centre County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Just headprd a tornado warning for Centre County? Negative. Storm cleared campus, not very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Maybe 35mph winds tops here in Toftrees State College, granted I am in a pretty sheltered area. I hope for SPC's sake the line will ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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