dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, good luck guys. Unlike Ray with the haterade, I hope you guys get slammed. No point in hoping for a miss...and besides..its good for board ratings! Thanks, Congrats on the server upgrade, Good timing before things really get going on here........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NAM is also taking the PV and moving it nw. So how will HPC handle the NAM and EC moving the PV west enough for a near the coast track? I guess the 12Z will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, good luck guys. Unlike Ray with the haterade, I hope you guys get slammed. No point in hoping for a miss...and besides..its good for board ratings! The only uncertainty I have is in which hand to hold the weenie and in which to?hold the shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam out to 66 low is forming right around the carolinas close to the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The only uncertainty I have is in which hand to hold the weenie and in which to?hang on to the snowblower..... fixed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The only uncertainty I have is in which hand to hold the weenie and in which to?hold the shovel. Well if its the weenie you're holding, you'll only need one hand. You'll have room to spare, so add the shovel to that hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At any rate, I think the NAM is gonna do it for you folks. If I didn't have a date this weekend, I'd make a chase up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well if its the weenie you're holding, you'll only need one hand. You'll have room to spare, so add the shovel to that hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 nam looks like a scraper....i'd like it deeper with the trough...this solution wont be a euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Forgive if this has already been mentioned on this forum, and Not to throw a wet blanket on anybody's parade, but regarding the 12z runs, I read in the NYC forum a post that said: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF AND GFS FLIPPED AS TO THE MOST WESTWARD AND EASTWARD SOLUTIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL COME IN BETTER RAOB COVERAGE ON THE 12Z RUN. THE ENFORCER THAT SET OFF THE NEGATIVE TILT TROF ON THE CURRENT ECMWF THOUGH WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO BETTER RAOB COVERAGE UNTIL TONIGHT`S RUN. Area Forecast DIscussion NWS Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At any rate, I think the NAM is gonna do it for you folks. If I didn't have a date this weekend, I'd make a chase up that way. Bring her for the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 At any rate, I think the NAM is gonna do it for you folks. If I didn't have a date this weekend, I'd make a chase up that way. How bout Ptown for the first date? He can watch you chuck your weenie. And if he can't accept your weather illness you ned to dump him anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Bring her for the ride! Oh dear.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How bout Ptown for the first date? He can watch you chuck your weenie. And if he can't accept your weather illness you ned to dump him anyhow Well, I've sort of explained it..but just enough as to not scare him away. If I go into the "chase" aspect this early, I'm not sure he'll stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Oh dear.... lol ... you'd think Mike was new here. A bit outside for NAM .. not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Well, I've sort of explained it..but just enough as to not scare him away. If I go into the "chase" aspect this early, I'm not sure he'll stick around. ...but the weenie chucking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 She's a scraper, but a trend towards the trough being a little more sharper and further west here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This looks pretty good. Well west of 6Z extrap from DGEX and a good trend. I think if we went beyond 84 hours it would continue to curl up. qpf field extends much further west vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This looks pretty good. Well west of 6Z extrap from DGEX and a good trend. I think if we went beyond 84 hours it would continue to curl up. qpf field extends much further west vs 6z. Yeah, it could be better than I was thinking if I were to pull a Sam and extrapolate. I can see it arcing more northward. Not a bad way to start off the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Oh dear.... lol. I mean him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 nam looks like a scraper....i'd like it deeper with the trough...this solution wont be a euro I'm going to need a whole lot more than that. Sounds like the eastern folks are approaching a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This looks pretty good. Well west of 6Z extrap from DGEX and a good trend. I think if we went beyond 84 hours it would continue to curl up. qpf field extends much further west vs 6z. Even with some of the ots solution on the models they all basically still hooked once they got up this way and still should as well here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm going to need a whole lot more than that. Sounds like the eastern folks are approaching a lock. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Oh dear.... LOL even I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm starting to worry about rain for me with all this west trending but, for all of those that might get dumped on with snow, here's some good "get pumped" music. Some of you youngsters might not know the players. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Those Canadians sleep in ...bastards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL!!! Just saw the Euro. That's the sickest humor ever hahaha. It has a decent fluke potential. The Euro does have a habit of having a fluke run with big storms around this time period. But that is just hilarious timing. Right after the GFS shifted east. LOL no it doesn't..You FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Barry Burbank's weatherblog on wbz4.com "Dumbfounded Yes, that’s what I am this morning- dumbfounded. Why? Well, all week the most reliable forecast model had consistently projected the upcoming storm only sideswiping some light snow over Cape Cod with some ocean-effect snow showers over the rest of the coastal plain. Now, its latest output is a 180. Yes, it is advertising a significant nor’easter for Sunday night and Monday. Despite my faith in its superior physics and mathematics, this latest Euro model run could be an aberration so I am not pulling out the stops just yet. If the Euro releases similar solutions in the next 2-3 forecast cycles, my confidence would be restored. It may have already latched onto a plausible scenario based upon higher latitude blocking, a reconfiguration of the jet stream amidst phasing of imbedded parcels of energy. Undoubtedly, this pattern is favorable for bombogenesis. The trick is determining the location of the initial and mature stages. Earlier Euro runs depicted a monstrous storm offshore but it now has the beast tucked much closer to Cape Cod. This path would produce rain there and maybe a mix on the South Shore with more than a foot of snow and some sleet most other places! Simultaneously, the other mathematical models which were zigging and zagging all week are all sending the storm far out to sea. The reality is that there remains a high degree of uncertainty which, hopefully, will all be resolved in the next 36-48 hours. It will be mighty interesting to see how this is all going to shake out." He even gave a shout out to Tolland CT, which is out of his viewing range He did? What did he say? Anyone know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 3-6" seems like a reasonable range to through out for I-95 PVD-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HPC humps the GFS and GEFS..hasn't anyone learned that? The only one that doesn't is Cisco. Whatever the GFS package shows is what they ride. It's the gov't...so they are forced into it to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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