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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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True - the center of that complex looks to be more south-y, but it may want to beef up a bit on the left side. A few more frames of this and it might be a ilttle interesting in these parts.

post-1705-0-20737800-1343143851_thumb.gi

heavy, heavy fringe forecast coming up

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mcd1565.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1048 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND SRN PA...NRN VA...MD...ERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241548Z - 241715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY

AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH

POCKETS OF HEATING AND MIXING. EARLY CELLS CROSSING FROM SWRN PA

INTO MD DID NOT PERSIST...BUT CIN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO FORM WHICH COULD

TRACK FOR LONG DISTANCES ONCE DEVELOPED. THE CELL OVER FAR WRN MD

APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A HAIL THREAT.

OTHER CU OF INTEREST WERE ACROSS NERN OH NEAR THE COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM HERE AND TRACK SEWD WITH A HAIL AND WIND

THREAT.

..JEWELL/HART.. 07/24/2012

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 40918153 40978070 40937913 40457758 39497572 38817567

38427582 38087643 38007692 38207797 38377885 38727932

39508052 39568061 40058119 40918153

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