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Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)


WeatherNC

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Yeah we should probably lock up the December 14th and onward thread. Anyway obviously a less phased solution at 0z and no hookup with the MN piece. Less amplification all around so the energy from the upper midwest never gets there as it hangs on the SW side of the PV. One thing we need to consider is the weak STJ as our good friend SBUWX23 reminded me of it in a FB chat. This may be the culprit in the model bouncing around on the phasing. Euro is next.

Jeremy,

What are you implying when you say we need to "consider the weak STJ" and this may be the "culprit"? Thanks for any input, as I am trying to learn. Thanks man!

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Hard to interpret the b&w graphics from the CMC in terms of winter weather, but the GGEM has a weak 1012mb area of low pressure at 72hrs, extending from Augusta to Pensacola., with precip extending from LA to NC. At 84hrs, strung out 1010mb low extending from Savannah to off the NC Coast, SE still entrenched in QPF. 96hrs, strung out low heading OTS and pecip exiting stage right through SC and NC. Thickness looks like ass implying this would be an all RN event for most south of VA, except maybe western NC, if I am reading the 1000-700mb graphic correctly.

From DT

buries east va the new 0z dec 15 ggem does

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Hard to interpret the b&w graphics from the CMC in terms of winter weather, but the GGEM has a weak 1012mb area of low pressure at 72hrs, extending from Augusta to Pensacola., with precip extending from LA to NC. At 84hrs, strung out 1010mb low extending from Savannah to off the NC Coast, SE still entrenched in QPF. 96hrs, strung out low heading OTS and pecip exiting stage right through SC and NC. Thickness looks like ass implying this would be an all RN event for most south of VA, except maybe western NC, if I am reading the 1000-700mb graphic correctly.

From DT

I don't think it is as bad as you think. The GGEM has been known to have a warm bias. the track look good to me at least for those in the piedmont area.

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I don't think it is as bad as you think. The GGEM has been known to have a warm bias. the track look good to me at least for those in the piedmont area.

yeah, my assessment could be incorrect about RN for most, hard to tell with those crappy graphics. 700-1000mb thickness line at 1284m is on the nw edge of the precp shield, all the way till it exits the coast. 1000-500mb thickness does not look favorable though..

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yeah, my assessment could be incorrect about RN for most, hard to tell with those crappy graphics. 700-1000mb thickness line at 1284m is on the nw edge of the precp shield, all the way till it exits the coast. 1000-500mb thickness does not look favorable though..

tgnt's ggem

slp looks looks close to the gfs..........Theres 3 hr's of 85h at 95% or better during sat's event over the nw piedmont of nc.........this is a rn or sn event for north central nc sat....

western nc may see some sun sunday..........EC run shortly will be interesting

i am in the gfs camp for now

xwx

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well 00z euro s/w is flat as hell but the pv in the ne is farther west just a completely different look at h5 over the northeast but i think the slp track was close to the gfs. no really heavy qpf amounts in general from what im hearing. but if that s/w is any more amplified then this thing phases and would most likely be right along the coast. 12z will be interesting.

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well 00z euro s/w is flat as hell but the pv in the ne is farther west just a completely different look at h5 over the northeast but i think the slp track was close to the gfs. no really heavy qpf amounts in general from what im hearing. but if that s/w is any more amplified then this thing phases and would most likely be right along the coast. 12z will be interesting.

hearing the same, time for bed...

congrats bermuda...no precip gets above nc, no really heavy precip in general.

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Time to cue up the 'ole Northwest Trend, I guess. huh.gif

it seems the euro although the solution is the east like most models, that its struggling whether or not the s/w will be more potent or flat that makes a huge difference because if it was amped up at all this thing we be right at the coast. one thing to remember is the NAM has the feature much stronger even though its out of its 'good range' it makes all the difference as to what weather we see this weekend. if its as flat as the euro has it then we would see cloudy skies :gun_bandana::axe:

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Not a lot of change to my eye on the 6z GFS from the 0z the LP is not phasing much, if at all. Even though the GFS is not showing a major snow it still appears to have snow for the I-85 corridor and points north and west with it. Still lots of time for it to change.

Also the GFS sends another pretty darn cold air mass in here middle of next week just in time for Christmas. Like Foothills said yesterday the pattern we are in keeps reloading and repeating. Hopefully before the pattern changes too much we can cash in on a good storm,

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This is starting to look like a NE NC & SE VA special, at-least on the global...

If we get a inch tommorrow and can squeeze 2-3" out Sunday that would at least have us at 100% of our yearly average before Jan. Looks like the latest runs are at least somewhat trending the right way given the event is still 3-5 days out. I would rather it not have us getting dumped on in this timeframe.

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JB not giving up yet. lol

While the GFS has shifted EAST, the players that can cause the beast are still not into position where one should give up on this

The fact is that its not yet time to "give up" In fact, the GFS looks like its in its usual day 4 denial mode with some feedback max running out in front in the northern branch. What makes this much more intriguing is that there are no models disagreeing with it, its lined up with all the other non models. The UKMET has backed off too I havent, I feel the ideas are still on the table.

So we'll see !

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From RAH

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE

WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS

PERIOD... IN ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE

DIRECTED ACROSS OUR REGION... AROUND THE BASE OF THE RETROGRESSING

POLAR VORTEX. THE OVERSPREADING OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING ATOP THE

BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY SEND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW

PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...

ULTIMATELY CULMINATING IN A STRONGER... CONSOLIDATED COASTAL CYCLONE

OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF NWP GUIDANCE

SUPPORTS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT... WHICH WAS

FOR A FASTER AND MORE ZONAL STORM TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST AND

LESSER WINTRY IMPACT FOR CENTRAL NC. NONETHELESS... EVEN WITH THIS

SOLUTION... THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN AS

RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE CLIMO FAVORED AREAS WITH RAIN

ELSEWHERE BY EARLY SATURDAY... THEN GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW --

WITH SOME ACCUMULATION -- BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. LET/S GET

THROUGH THE FIRST EVENT THURSDAY AND ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ENTER THE RAOB NETWORK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS

BEFORE GETTING TOO CUTE WITH SPECIFICS.

:guitar:

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Bears watching KGSP..

Lets move this current system on out folks....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

638 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

SAT THRU SAT NGT...THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN A LTL BETTER

AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF COAST WAVE ALONG STALLED

FRONTAL ZONE. THE GFS IS STILL DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH

THE SFC LOW AS IT DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND PAINTS A

RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH DECENT QPF ACRS THE CWA (ESP SAT AFTN THRU THE

EVE). THE GFS IS ON THE WRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THE MORE ELY

ECMWF HAS QPF ACRS THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS IN A DEFORMATION

ZONE BAND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. SO HAVE BUMPED

POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THESE PERIODS. CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOW IN THE

MTNS IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...AS ARCTIC HIGH STILL OFF TO THE WEST

AS THE PRECIP FALLS. SO HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACRS THE

NC MTNS AND EVENTUALLY THE NC PIEDMONT AS POPS TAPER OFF. THIS

SYSTEM OBVIOUSLY BEARS WATCHING.-- End Changed Discussion --

From RAH

:guitar:

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JB not giving up yet. lol

While the GFS has shifted EAST, the players that can cause the beast are still not into position where one should give up on this

The fact is that its not yet time to "give up" In fact, the GFS looks like its in its usual day 4 denial mode with some feedback max running out in front in the northern branch. What makes this much more intriguing is that there are no models disagreeing with it, its lined up with all the other non models. The UKMET has backed off too I havent, I feel the ideas are still on the table.

So we'll see !

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I haven't even begun to give up on this storm yet. The GFS was not that bad for us in the CLT area and there is plenty of time for the models to swing around as well. It will be interesting to see what the this afternoons Euro shows and the 12z models. I just have a feeling the storm will be stronger than what the early morning runs showed but that is more of a gut feeling rather than scientific

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