Weekend Storm Disco (Dec 18th & 19th)

[NCSNOW]

Canadian Still on board I see in color,

12z jma half a step away, Stay tuned,

My gut tells me looking at euro ensembles it will trend toward Canadian tonight, Maybe not full bore, As fara as the american models, useless on phasing systems outside 3 days, and then only good for verification IMO.

[BIG FROSTY]

It's OVER folks You'll not see this baby come back, Euro didn't come back today, then 18z GFS followed suit just like it suppose too. That imo put the final nail in the coffin (atleast for me) Now there is a slim chance it may glance the coast But I really doubt that. Now i'm ready to

Now I hope it shows me wrong and that I really don't know nothing (which I really don't) and we get dumped on !

[iceman]

It's OVER folks You'll not see this baby come back, Euro didn't come back today, then 18z GFS followed suit just like it suppose too. That imo put the final nail in the coffin (atleast for me) Now there is a slim chance it may glance the coast But I really doubt that. Now i'm ready to

[WeatherNC]

lol DGEX will have 2 ft of snow for all of NC!!

Just 5-8" for NE NC and SE VA...

sorry burger, but the postulate still holds that this is an event in that area, and a possible chase candidate if a preferred trend happens

[Gastonwxman]

Well Burger, that 2 feet didn't happen on DGEX. What will we do now lol?

[burgertime]

I'm kind of shocked seems like DGEX always overplays how much snow you'll get. Haha could be good for us since it usually doesn't verify as good as it says a few days away...of course this time it probably will.

[burgertime]

Just 5-8" for NE NC and SE VA...

sorry burger, but the postulate still holds that this is an event in that area, and a possible chase candidate if a preferred trend happens

I refuse to believe!

[burgertime]

NAM looks like it might be following the Euro..seems to be weaker compared to the 18z.

[lilj4425]

The NAM appears to be coming in colder and further north with the qpf through hr60. However, it is more weaker with southern wave.

[BIG FROSTY]

The NAM appears to be coming in colder and further north with the qpf through hr60. However, it is more weaker with southern wave.

If i'm seeing it right there is no sw in the southern jet at all it's gonna follow the euro I think ?

[burgertime]

If i'm seeing it right there is no sw in the southern jet at all it's gonna follow the euro I think ?

Doesn't look to be suppressed as the Euro by any means. Looks like it still has the players on the field just a little more suppressed than the 18z.

[Poimen]

The NAM has a lot of 700 mb RH over the SE at 72 hours and is starting to dig at 5H just a bit.

[Poimen]

in fact, by hour 72 it shows more organized precip breaking out. Nothing fancy but it keeps us in the game, even if momentarily.

[burgertime]

This run is too far east for CLT peeps. RDU does alright this run with some light snow.

[superjames1992]

It's OVER folks You'll not see this baby come back, Euro didn't come back today, then 18z GFS followed suit just like it suppose too. That imo put the final nail in the coffin (atleast for me) Now there is a slim chance it may glance the coast But I really doubt that. Now i'm ready to

Now I hope it shows me wrong and that I really don't know nothing (which I really don't) and we get dumped on !

Step away from the ledge, Frosty!

[BIG FROSTY]

Step away from the ledge, Frosty!

You see the models James, I have reason's to be on the edge ! lol

[rduwx]

0z nam wasn't all to impressive. It was a little closer to the coast and did throw some precip back into NC but we are talking about the nam @ 78 and 84 hrs. Overall I could see the 0z gfs and 0z euro staying the same tonight.

[WeatherNC]

If the 0z GFS and GGEM trend towards the 12z ECMWF, and the 0z EC has continuity with its 12z solution, you can pretty much stick a fork in this event as it is done, <10% chance for even the favored areas of NE NC and SE VA...

[Brick Tamland]

This run is too far east for CLT peeps. RDU does alright this run with some light snow.

Maybe just a preview of the Christmas snow.

[NCSNOW]

This run of the nam is the best one it had all day. northern stream needs to get here about 12 hours quicker, or southern stream slow down. Getting closer to a phase in the right spot IMO. MBY gets 1-2 off this run. Also surface reflection at 84 should look more wetter futher west than the picture it;s painting by looking at placement of ntorthern stream feature digging into N GA at hour 84.

[Shawn]

Two runs of the NAM giving the Columbia, SC area light snow at the tail end of this system over the weekend? Blasphemy!

[xwx]

If the 0z GFS and GGEM trend towards the 12z ECMWF, and the 0z EC has continuity with its 12z solution, you can pretty much stick a fork in this event as it is done, <10% chance for even the favored areas of NE NC and SE VA...

when tngts tmro's system gets to the ocean,then the trough sharpens pulling that surface low a little further west on satngt.......Most big lows going up the coast trend west with time.............i would not be suprise to to see the pcp backing over the triangle of nc and putting down desent snows............sharp cut-off to the pcp field.........greensboro overcast and raleigh with mod sn..........interesting to watch unfold

xwx

[Shawn]

when tngts tmro's system gets to the ocean,then the trough sharpens pulling that surface low a little further west on satngt.......Most big lows going up the coast trend west with time.............i would not be suprise to to see the pcp backing over the triangle of nc and putting down desent snows............sharp cut-off to the pcp field.........greensboro overcast and raleigh with mod sn..........interesting to watch unfold

xwx

Why do I have an odd feeling this system could end up being like the bigger one towards the beginning of this year? :]

[BullCityWx]

I'll be in Cola this weekend...plz dont make me regret it, mother nature.

[strongwxnc]

Us 74 folks want to thank you for taking this one for the team :

I'll be in Cola this weekend...plz dont make me regret it, mother nature.

[HWY316wx]

Not sure if anyone saw this in all the craziness, but this out of BMX at 6:45 tonight.

BY FRIDAY...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE

PLAINS...FORCING A GULF LOW TO DEVELOP. THIS IS WHERE THE FUN

BEGINS. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT

OF THE COLD AIR THAT THE LOW WILL BRING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY

NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE AMOUNTS. THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST WAS MUCH WARMER AND PROFILES SUPPORTED JUST RAIN ACROSS THE

NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING AT

LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE I-20

CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO AS TODAY AS IT WILL BE

THE COLD AIR TRYING TO WORK OUT THE WARMER AIR. IN FACT WE MAY SEE A

WARM NOSE GET STUCK AROUND THE 700 TO 850 MB LEVELS WITH FREEZING OR

NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY

MORNING. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARM NOSE WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT

OF THIS THREAT AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...SOUNDING

PROFILES INDICATE A SNOW/RAIN MIX POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A SELMA

TO ROANOKE LINE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL GO A TOUCH NORTH OF THAT

AND STICK WITH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. STILL ALOT OF TIMING ISSUES AND

THREATS TO WORK OUT AS THIS APPROACHES...SO STAY TUNED.

[rduwx]

when tngts tmro's system gets to the ocean,then the trough sharpens pulling that surface low a little further west on satngt.......Most big lows going up the coast trend west with time.............i would not be suprise to to see the pcp backing over the triangle of nc and putting down desent snows............sharp cut-off to the pcp field.........greensboro overcast and raleigh with mod sn..........interesting to watch unfold

xwx

Hey xwx...While agree some do trend west in time, the problem I see w/ this paticular storm is the s/w in the southern branch has continued to get weaker. Imo we need that s/w to be a little stronger. Just my opinion.

[BullCityWx]

Us 74 folks want to thank you for taking this one for the team :

Well, I guess I did get lucky with the mid feb storm from last year down there...second biggest event ever and I was there.

[FoothillsNC]

for the areas west of CLT to get in on the Saturday storm, (western Carolinas) we need to see moisture backing out of the Gulf a little more quickly than what the NAM is showing. We need a nw Gulf low development, not north central or northeast Gulf development, and certainly not an offshore GA development as it will be totally too late here. Right now all guidance is favoring development a little too late west of 85 and probably west of 77 but the gradient between something and nothing is going to be tight . We need a stronger shortwave, not necessarily a northerly track, as that would be too warm. Still looks too weak until its off shore. Could be good for the eastern third of the Carolinas though.

[strongwxnc]

GFS is rolling

for the areas west of CLT to get in on the Saturday storm, (western Carolinas) we need to see moisture backing out of the Gulf a little more quickly than what the NAM is showing. We need a nw Gulf low development, not north central or northeast Gulf development, and certainly not an offshore GA development as it will be totally too late here. Right now all guidance is favoring development a little too late west of 85 and probably west of 77 but the gradient between something and nothing is going to be tight . We need a stronger shortwave, not necessarily a northerly track, as that would be too warm. Still looks too weak until its off shore. Could be good for the eastern third of the Carolinas though.