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HEAT WAVE 2012!


Wow

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Haven't been on this side of the board lately, but this really is going to be a serious heat wave. Records shattered, possible heat-related deaths, etc.

95º @ 11AM here.

Humidity only 38%. DP of 66. Both falling. We are actually right on taps with what the RAP said we'd be at by now. Kind of doubted its extreme values until we bottomed out at 76.

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Petersburg VA already 100 at 11 am. Greer (GSP) 97 already as well.

Lower SC DP's aren't mixing out as of yet and in the upper 80's as of 11 am, generally averaging 87-89 at this time (very light winds) despite running 2-4 degrees warmer than guidance for low temperatures this morning.

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93 and still high cirrus overhead. It's going to be ridiculous around 3 pm.

I know that I have been debating over Asheville's projected high of 98 for a couple days...looking at their obs...

ASHEVILLE PTSUNNY 81 59 47 N8

As long as the wind at Asheville Regional is "north" they'll not come close to 98. That wind direction needs to shift IMO for it to happen.

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Now up to 99 and it's not even noon. Ugh. Lexington is also 99 and it's 97 at Greensboro per last observations (around 11:30). In fact, there are quite a few upper 90 readings that were updated at 11:30, the rest showed mid 90s but they were at 11am or a few minutes before.

Edit, as of 11:45, it's now 100 here.

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KATL: (all GFS progs are per MeteoStar):

11 AM today (6/29): 92 vs. 6/29 6Z GFS fcast of 91 for 11 AM. So, KATL is 1 F warmer than 6Z GFS. 6Z GFS high for today is 103 F. This implies the high could be as much as ~104 vs. alltime high for any day since 1879 of 105 and June record of 102!

To compare:

11 AM yesterday (6/28): 86 vs. yesterday's 6Z GFS' fcast of 85..so it was 1 warmer as of 11 AM yesterday, also. High yesterday was 98 vs. 6Z GFS' high of 96. So, it verified 2 warmer.

11 AM today is 6 warmer than yesterday at 11 AM under similarly sunny skies. This also implies a shot at 104 today (98 + 6).

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As of 12:24, it's 102.4 here. Greenwood county airport is up to 101 as of 11:56. Columbia is 100 to 102, depending on which site you look at.

Approaching 100 at GSP, airport is 97 before noon with surrounding sites at 99 or so.

12z nam/gfs still showing highs of at least 110 today from athens to columbia/close to gsp up to around greensboro.

WRF is ridiculous showing temps/LOWS around 90 here Sunday morning at 9z, and around 89 or 90 in atlanta. That would shatter records to say the least. I have my doubts it would be that hot (not to mention it makes sense that atlanta would be hotter due to the heat island) but it just goes to show you how extreme this airmass is.

GFS, on the other hand shows lows in the upper 70s to around 80...still outrageous though.

Here is the crazy map from the nam as well as the soundings

Date: 45 hour Eta valid 9Z SUN  1 JUL 12
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
 mb	 m	 C	 C	%   C	 C  deg knt   K	 K	 K	 K	g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000	92																
SFC  986   218  32.5  21.0  51 11.5  24.2 310   3 306.9 309.9 297.8 355.4 16.09
 2  950   558  36.6   8.4  18 28.2  18.5 296   6 314.3 315.7 293.6 337.1  7.28
 3  900  1046  32.2   4.1  17 28.1  15.3 287   5 314.7 315.8 292.4 332.7  5.70
 4  850  1555  28.1   0.6  17 27.4  12.4 313   3 315.6 316.5 291.9 330.6  4.72
 5  800  2087  23.5  -1.2  19 24.8   9.9 324   4 316.2 317.0 291.7 330.2  4.36
 6  750  2644  18.4  -2.4  24 20.8   7.3 319   5 316.5 317.4 291.8 330.2  4.26
 7  700  3228  12.9  -3.9  31 16.8   4.3 316   7 316.8 317.6 291.7 330.0  4.09
 8  650  3843   7.1  -5.2  41 12.4   1.1 315  10 317.0 317.8 291.7 329.9  3.98
 9  600  4494   0.8  -6.5  58  7.4  -2.6 312  13 317.1 317.8 291.6 329.7  3.91
10  550  5185  -5.4  -8.3  80  2.9  -6.7 305  13 317.6 318.4 291.6 329.7  3.71
11  500  5925 -10.2 -11.9  88  1.6 -10.9 292  11 320.6 321.2 291.9 330.8  3.08
12  450  6730 -15.2 -16.9  86  1.8 -15.7 299   9 324.2 324.6 292.2 331.8  2.26
13  400  7610 -20.8 -23.0  83  2.2 -21.4 280   8 327.9 328.2 292.6 333.2  1.50

post-12-0-43548100-1340987829_thumb.png

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