CT Rain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 12Z NAM looked a little better. There is a weak triple point across SNE with that s/w coming through albeit perhaps not the best timing. Daybreak MCS in mid atlantic with later development farther north here in NE with s/w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 LOL ...although... Maybe a perfect way to describe New England severe potential is "cautiously pessimistic" like we're being for Friday, e.g. The KFS suggests all extreme, all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 LOL ...although... Maybe a perfect way to describe New England severe potential is "cautiously pessimistic" like we're being for Friday, e.g. Well played. I do like your version better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Daybreak MCS in mid atlantic with later development farther north here in NE with s/w? I have no idea. Just hope we can pop a few good ones. I have it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Heard through the grape vine that the May-Jun tornado count may be close to record low. Lets see of CC is blamed on that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 There also could be something dropping south of us on Thursday Night / Friday AM. It probably won't have much of an effect up your way but it will be interesting to see if 1) it's severe and 2) what it does to anything down the road (remnant boundaries, stability). One thing I am noticing from the 50,000 foot view for the Thursday - next Tuesday or so time frame is the general appeal of having west and event west-northwest screaming 500mb velocities blowing over top a SW lower tropospheric flow. That's not very intrinsically stable if you get my drift. That's sort of geostrophic turn with altitude is a member of the MCS checklist I believe, and having 101 in Indiana while it is 75 N of Lake Superior seems like a nice recipe for derechio genesis as just about any time ...nocturnally favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 One thing I am noticing from the 50,000 foot view for the Thursday - next Tuesday or so time frame is the general appeal of having west and event west-northwest screaming 500mb velocities blowing over top a SW lower tropospheric flow. That's not very intrinsically stable if you get my drift. That's sort of geostrophic turn with altitude is a member of the MCS checklist I believe, and having 101 in Indiana while it is 75 N of Lake Superior seems like a nice recipe for derechio genesis as just about any time ...nocturnally favored. Agreed. No arguments here. Only trouble is: I think if a strong MCS / derecho were to form, it would head south of us. The overall placement of features and track of EML suggest a further south scenario. Each night poses an MCS threat from the Mid West to the Mid Atlantic it seems. Regardless, we still have an interesting scenario Friday Morning but that particular wave doesn't seem like it will be any sort of derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Agreed. No arguments here. Only trouble is: I think if a strong MCS / derecho were to form, it would head south of us. The overall placement of features and track of EML suggest a further south scenario. Each night poses an MCS threat from the Mid West to the Mid Atlantic it seems. Regardless, we still have an interesting scenario Friday Morning but that particular wave doesn't seem like it will be any sort of derecho. Yeah I think we'll see an MCS in the Mid Atlantic Fri AM but not a derecho. Most of us NJ/SNE/SE NY get a miserable split with PM convection firing in NNE after early AM convection to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yeah I think we'll see an MCS in the Mid Atlantic Fri AM but not a derecho. Most of us NJ/SNE/SE NY get a miserable split with PM convection firing in NNE after early AM convection to the south. I do think it is possible the AM stuff does affect the NJ-SNE corridor; I wouldn't rule it out yet. But, we are used to the split scenario for a reason, lol. Okay I am done equivocating. LOL Saturday, while not interesting up here, could certainly get interesting well to the Southwest. Late Friday into Saturday looks potentially favorable for a strong MCS / derecho Midwest-Mid Atlantic. The moisture will surge northward again overnight Sat-Sun and possibly set us up on Sunday. Sunday has the look of splitting supercells and a strong line of thunderstorms at this point for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yeah I think we'll see an MCS in the Mid Atlantic Fri AM but not a derecho. Most of us NJ/SNE/SE NY get a miserable split with PM convection firing in NNE after early AM convection to the south. Unsure about the stuff before and after .... but this assessment is exact - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 You have to figure we'll see a couple rounds of storms over the weekend in SNE . Setup is there for it. We just need Ryan's EML to reappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Michigan/Ohio/PA/WNY looks good Thursday evening. Subtle impulse moving in with strong west flow and maybe some decent lift. SPC at least put us in the 5% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Euro has some QPF Friday morning, but it's too bad it can't slow 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yeah I think we'll see an MCS in the Mid Atlantic Fri AM but not a derecho. Most of us NJ/SNE/SE NY get a miserable split with PM convection firing in NNE after early AM convection to the south. If that happens, looks like I'm in for a busy evening shift. This is just before the NAM initiates convection in far western ME. Still hanging onto a loaded gun at 19z, with model lapse rates above 7 C/km. CAPE here is already pushing 2000 J/kg and that hodograph has some really great turning for New England, especially in the lowest 1 km (a nice indicator for stronger tornado potential). That puts 0-1 km shear somewhere around 25 kts, and 0-3 km helicity north of 225 m2/s2. Of course all of this is mongering at this point, but the way the ingredients have set up on the 12z runs it is interesting up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Euro has some QPF Friday morning, but it's too bad it can't slow 4 hours. severe on the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Euro has some QPF Friday morning, but it's too bad it can't slow 4 hours. It will no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 severe on the coast? It looked like leftovers from whatever happens the night before. But, NAM and SREFs still held out a chance of something a little more robust. The 7-10 split fears for SNE are on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Euro sucks. Terrible s/w timing for next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Euro sucks. Terrible s/w timing for next 5 days. At least we cool off early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 At least we cool off early next week. To what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 It looked like leftovers from whatever happens the night before. But, NAM and SREFs still held out a chance of something a little more robust. The 7-10 split fears for SNE are on my mind. yeah i'm just getting a look at the run now. well...sometimes an early fropa for 80% of the region bodes well for far eastern areas. who knows. like always, 2 days out with this kind of stuff seems like eternity with so many minor fluctuations making a huge difference in timing/development etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The NAM does look good for SNE... I think it may be a bit on its own. So we'll see. You're right Phil this is an eternity away for svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 overall euro not very interested in getting heat into SNE through mid-week next week....keeps the axis of that heat dome out over the central plains with a general trough/ridge/trough look over the conus...any plume of heat that tries to eject east is shunted into the MA/SE with mainly WNW flow across new england. sat/sun still warm/hot but those brutal conditions stay well SW of here. have to think eventually with that look though we'd get hit with a decent MCS coming over the top and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 yeah i'm just getting a look at the run now. well...sometimes an early fropa for 80% of the region bodes well for far eastern areas. who knows. like always, 2 days out with this kind of stuff seems like eternity with so many minor fluctuations making a huge difference in timing/development etc. Yeah I agree. I used to count on those days..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Ukie on board with the Friday morning MCS diving SE (cyan lines are 200 mb divergence, and shading is 700 mb RH). That complex it is blowing up over central NY takes a position just south of NYC by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Basically most of the globals have something diving southeast near that area on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 If that happens, looks like I'm in for a busy evening shift. This is just before the NAM initiates convection in far western ME. Still hanging onto a loaded gun at 19z, with model lapse rates above 7 C/km. CAPE here is already pushing 2000 J/kg and that hodograph has some really great turning for New England, especially in the lowest 1 km (a nice indicator for stronger tornado potential). That puts 0-1 km shear somewhere around 25 kts, and 0-3 km helicity north of 225 m2/s2. Of course all of this is mongering at this point, but the way the ingredients have set up on the 12z runs it is interesting up here. I would endorse that sounding for a chance at some super cells, That's the severe i don't mind tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 What got into the 18z GFS for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 What got into the 18z GFS for Friday. What's it got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 That's quite the s/w on the GFS, but I wonder if it's a little feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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