Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 It did? I thought so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I just don't see a mechanism to overcome the CIN tomorrow down here. They should be able to do it in ME but I think it's sort of a fail for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 It did? lol.. i feel like kev just makes stuff up as he goes and hopes for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 lol.. i feel like kev just makes stuff up as he goes and hopes for the best True story. All extreme... all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 lol.. i feel like kev just makes stuff up as he goes and hopes for the best "that's so hurtful" "i can't even believe you'd say that" i hope NE mass has a shot at a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Severe storms are going up in the Chicago area now, that is what the HRRR is forecasting to be the complex near Lake Erie by 06z tonight. Interestingly, the HRRR weakens it quickly by 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Severe storms are going up in the Chicago area now, that is what the HRRR is forecasting to be the complex near Lake Erie by 06z tonight. Interestingly, the HRRR weakens it quickly by 09z. Radar loop from LOT was great as those storms fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Radar loop from LOT was great as those storms fired up. These kind of days are fantastic for explosive updraft development. You can go from flat Cu to shooting 50 dBZ to 40 kft in like four volume scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 What is the timing we should expect on the big storms to come thru SNE? maybe 4-6:00am ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 What is the timing we should expect on the big storms to come thru SNE? maybe 4-6:00am ish? in your dreams, literally and figuratively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 In one post whats tomorrow look like for sne? In class and havent been home since Tue pm. Gotta go back to listening, tia lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Looks like SPC doesn't like any kind of storms for Connecticut at all, that's if I'm comprehending the map right. They have the general thunder line running right along about 91. The 5% severe contour is the one that excludes southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 They have the general thunder line running right along about 91. The 5% severe contour is the one that excludes southern New England. Just looked at the 18z NAM for KRUM. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Just looked at the 18z NAM for KRUM. Wow. I would gladly take that. Models seem to have a pretty good handle on this lead shortwave, correctly placing it over Lake Michigan. This is what screws SNE I think, while you guys get the subsidence following that wave, a secondary northern stream wave dives down across NNE. That is what should pop the cap up here, but I don't think SNE gets brushed enough to really force some ascent. WV loop shows that northern stream feature pretty well, right about northern MN to just N of Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like crap down here tomorrow...although I would really watch eastern sections of southern New England where there will be more in the way of llvl convergence...here there could be some rather interesting storms with some very large hailers. Definitely agree about ME...looking quite interesting up there and I as well think they should be in a slight with 30% probs...in fact, with new Day 1 tonight wouldn't be shocked to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I would gladly take that. Models seem to have a pretty good handle on this lead shortwave, correctly placing it over Lake Michigan. This is what screws SNE I think, while you guys get the subsidence following that wave, a secondary northern stream wave dives down across NNE. That is what should pop the cap up here, but I don't think SNE gets brushed enough to really force some ascent. WV loop shows that northern stream feature pretty well, right about northern MN to just N of Lake Superior. Yeah exactly. The subsidence behind the lead s/w screws us. While there will be some synoptic-scale forcing later in the day with s/w number 2 I don't think there's enough for SNE to help break erode the cap. Westerly flow as well will tend to dry out the boundary layer through the day leaving us with even more CIN. I think the one thing to watch would be the second s/w trending stronger or a bit farther south. Unlikely at this juncture but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like crap down here tomorrow...although I would really watch eastern sections of southern New England where there will be more in the way of llvl convergence...here there could be some rather interesting storms with some very large hailers. Definitely agree about ME...looking quite interesting up there and I as well think they should be in a slight with 30% probs...in fact, with new Day 1 tonight wouldn't be shocked to see it Yeah Maine looks good. I'm surprised you aren't screaming like a little girl with an EML moving in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yeah Maine looks good. I'm surprised you aren't screaming like a little girl with an EML moving in! I'd be going nuts if the synoptic pattern looked great. It's fantastic we are going to have the EML and all of this cape...in fact, the mid-level lapse rates being forecasted are almost as impressive as we saw on 6/1/11 but it's no good if it can't go to use. If we were seeing more southwesterly winds being forecasted in the lower-levels than I would perhaps feel marginally better. Those westerly winds are just really going to kill us and w/o ,uch in the way of ascent or lift down here it's going to be incredibly difficult to pop something here. Even last June the majority of the action was to our north b/c the s/w was just a tad too far north. It could get quite ugly in Maine tomorrow...I could see some 2''+ hail reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yeah Maine looks good. I'm surprised you aren't screaming like a little girl with an EML moving in! Cause now that I'm home it just looks like a huge tease LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 And that's why the MI MCS probably won't fire tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 And that's why the MI MCS probably won't fire tonight lol ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Nice. Even better...8.6 C/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Even better...8.6 C/km PIT is like something from the TX caprock..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 ?? That cap is pretty ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Nice. Calculate 500-675mb lapse rate off that... would be much more impressive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 That cap is pretty ridiculous Oh that..lol. I thought you meant something else. I see a small cell firing off to the north, but that's a decent cap right there. I wonder how the WAA ahead of it works overnight. Maybe some stuff firing near Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Oh that..lol. I thought you meant something else. I see a small cell firing off to the north, but that's a decent cap right there. I wonder how the WAA ahead of it works overnight. Maybe some stuff firing near Lake Ontario. Seems like a few cells near Detroit have fired and then fallen apart. Seems like they can't sustain themselves with that CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 wtf is this???? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0433.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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