weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 If we see nothing really getting going by 5:15-5:30 at the latest then I don't think we will see anything...getting pretty late now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I think the dry air to our west is really hurting things out there as well with getting going. sfc dews only in the 40's/50's...perhaps as the front draws closer to our airmass storms can pop...it just becomes a question of the front and everything moving in too late and us losing instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Nice little cell just north of Saratoga Springs. KENX at 3.1 degrees there is a nice lowering of CC right in an area of high dBZ, looking pretty solid for large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 yeah...this threat is toast. welcome to SNE severe weather season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 This is what the 18z HRRR has for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I have to say, really impressive cu field here in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I should have went into work today. Oh well...I'll just work double tomorrow to make up for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Remember this...5 years ago today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 65 DBZ N of ALB right now... Nice intense cell just popped closer to the city, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 yeah...this threat is toast. welcome to SNE severe weather season! reverse psychology...good, good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Both the NAM and RAP still seem to want to break out some precip into CT, the RAP brings it all the way down to my area (New Haven). If that actually happens (very doubtful) it would bring convection through the admittedly small and unimpressive 1km EHI bullseye still progged by both models for NW CT. The RAP is clearly overdoing CAPE, though, making me suspicious of its convective predictions. The NAM is much dryer for CT, with the precip barely clipping the northwestern-most part of the state, but still... It means some of the models are still holding out the barest glimmmer of hope for the region. Not gonna fall for it, though. Been burned too many times by overdone progs in Southern New England. I'm sitting this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Latest soundings show an awful lot of dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere...which isn't a bad thing (when certain conditions are right), however, I think in this case it's really preventing anything from getting going. I know the stronger forcing/dynamics are further north and this is where the storms have been firing but these storms are firing RIGHT along this area...looking at the 500mb vort and the trough placement they are close enough to us to where activity should have been developing across places like PA/southern NY and into western MA/CT. Virtually you need the better forcing/dynamics to be RIGHT on top of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Just made it to the NY border. Not looking promising...debating on heading further NW or just heading home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Just made it to the NY border. Not looking promising...debating on heading further NW or just heading home. How far north are you willing to go? I think were done here in CT, however, if I lived in western or central MA I wouldn't give up hope yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I could go up 7, but I don't think I feel like it. Probably just going to head home while I'm still pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 What is this (ofb from cell north of albany? artifact?) and could it serve as forcing mechanism to trigger activity along NY/MA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 How far north are you willing to go? I think were done here in CT, however, if I lived in western or central MA I wouldn't give up hope yet. Glad you said that... I was feeling a little guilty sitting here weenie'ing out. We're still at 76/67... The storms to the NW are intensifying and headed in this general direction. I should at least be able to catch something decent on radar here in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Cell between Cohoes and Clfiton Park is very nice looking. Nice low level mesocyclone and pretty impressive signature. Looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'm calling it a day, heading home. Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'm calling it a day, heading home. Not impressed. Were you chasing???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Both the NAM and RAP still seem to want to break out some precip into CT, the RAP brings it all the way down to my area (New Haven). If that actually happens (very doubtful) it would bring convection through the admittedly small and unimpressive 1km EHI bullseye still progged by both models for NW CT. The RAP is clearly overdoing CAPE, though, making me suspicious of its convective predictions. The NAM is much dryer for CT, with the precip barely clipping the northwestern-most part of the state, but still... It means some of the models are still holding out the barest glimmmer of hope for the region. Not gonna fall for it, though. Been burned too many times by overdone progs in Southern New England. I'm sitting this one out. Geoff Fox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 storms rapidly intensifying as they work towards VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 storms rapidly intensifying as they work towards VT/NH. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Congrats At least there is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Got some brief pea sized hail on the southern side of the cell in north central Albany county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Geoff Fox? Um, no. Just another amateur enthusiast. If that's what you were asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 NW MA is going to get nailed. Hail in those cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 That line looks to clip the northern Berks if it holds together. Pretty potent line. Hopefully, it can develop a bit more on the southern end. If so, I may wind up getting something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Hail NE of Albany it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 srefs nailed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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