Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Man ..clouds are hanging tough. We need sun out by noon if anyone has a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The 11Z HRRR brought a nice broken line through the area toward 5-7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Clear skies to our west..bodes well for us Seeing bright spots already here in Webster...dense fog rapidly eroded. Good sign...was not expecting any glimses of sun until much later in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I guess the good news is the timing of any storms appears later in the afternoon which means we have a little longer than usual to get some clearing going. These clouds aren't in any hurry to get out of here though. What sucks though is it appears that the best winds are going to be post-frontal which will preclude a more fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The best low level moisture/dews look to be from Albany eastward. TDs near the cold front are actually only in the upper 40s to near 50. So we have a little bit of a discontinuity here it seems. Looks like there is a weak pre frontal trough near the Hudson valley right now. I noticed meso models fire weak cells over western and central areas after 18z. Maybe they are seeing that feature? Yeah I think a lot of the elements just are a bit out of phase. That said there will be a zone where some things may come together right on the NY border especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 It will be interesting to see if those 64-65F dewpoints will advect into our region. The SPC RAP indicates that theta-e advection will occur into SNE over the course of the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The best low level moisture/dews look to be from Albany eastward. TDs near the cold front are actually only in the upper 40s to near 50. So we have a little bit of a discontinuity here it seems. Looks like there is a weak pre frontal trough near the Hudson valley right now. I noticed meso models fire weak cells over western and central areas after 18z. Maybe they are seeing that feature? It looks like there is a cold front aloft present over central new york, ahead of the surface cold front, based on water vapor imagery showing dry air moving into the area. This is likely associated with the surface trough. I think this feature will initiate storms as destabilization occurs later in the day and the weak cap is removed. The HRRR shows initiation along this feature around 18z. There may some locally enhanced helicity in the Hudson Valley, due terrain forced southerly low level winds that might increase the chance of a supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 This would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Don't think moisture/surface DPs will be a limiting factor. Latest RAP, current and 21Z: More concerned about limited shear and any cells lining out with the front if we can't get clearing soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Started brightening quite a bit here in the last 15 minutes or so and my optimism is increasing. Might have blue skies here fairly soon. 65.5/64.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 From ALY "BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORMING OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS OUR FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AN EXPANSION TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE FROM THE KBUF 12Z SOUNDING ARE A STEEP 7.1 C/KM. EXPECTING POTENTIAL CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE MAGLENTA INDEX POINTS TOWARDS A MAJOR OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL OF 10+ EVENTS. THE THREAT IS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 From ALY "BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORMING OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS OUR FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AN EXPANSION TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE FROM THE KBUF 12Z SOUNDING ARE A STEEP 7.1 C/KM. EXPECTING POTENTIAL CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE MAGLENTA INDEX POINTS TOWARDS A MAJOR OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL OF 10+ EVENTS. THE THREAT IS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL." Check out the gravity wave clouds up there, ut oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 From ALY "BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IT APPEARS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORMING OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS OUR FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AN EXPANSION TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE FROM THE KBUF 12Z SOUNDING ARE A STEEP 7.1 C/KM. EXPECTING POTENTIAL CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE MAGLENTA INDEX POINTS TOWARDS A MAJOR OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL OF 10+ EVENTS. THE THREAT IS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL." Yeah ALY sees that trough too. You can even notice it on vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Check out the gravity wave clouds up there, ut oh Pretty interesting...something that could help out big time later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Yeah ALY sees that trough too. You can even notice it on vis. I'm hoping it doesn't initiate convection too early and tamper us from seeing more sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 NYC/Hudson Valley threads are dead, but looks like the best bet is western MA, extreme western CT, but I'm looking at interior SE NYS. Orange County is already going mostly sunny and severe weather parameters are not bad at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The RAP develops 250 m2s2 of 0-1 helicity later on too over much of cT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 Might chase any discrete cells that form near here...nothing else to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The RAP develops 250 m2s2 of 0-1 helicity later on too over much of cT. There will be an area with somewhat backed winds in the BL across western new England. Hodographs show nice curvature in the 0-3km layer. Of note in far western sections and NY is the inverted v showing up on forecast soundings with rather substantial DCAPE. I think the area around Albany could get a pretty sizable squall line with wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 There will be an area with somewhat backed winds in the BL across western new England. Hodographs show nice curvature in the 0-3km layer. Of note in far western sections and NY is the inverted v showing up on forecast soundings with rather substantial DCAPE. I think the area around Albany could get a pretty sizable squall line with wind damage. Yeah Albany area looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Constant stream of high clouds over SNE. That's gonna hurt solar heating. However, bump in the cloud shield over NJ does indicate a jet streak developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Yeah Albany area looks nice. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 There will be an area with somewhat backed winds in the BL across western new England. Hodographs show nice curvature in the 0-3km layer. Of note in far western sections and NY is the inverted v showing up on forecast soundings with rather substantial DCAPE. I think the area around Albany could get a pretty sizable squall line with wind damage. Yeah that area seems pretty awesome for stuff later on. I wouldn't be surprised to see 30% wind contour with 1630z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Ryan..you think we see any sun in Northern/Central Ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 AWT think there is a tornado threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Still getting considerable drizzle/mist. Heating fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Pretty considerable differences between the GFS and the NAM. GFS really dries up the boundary layer...has dews only in the low 50s in ALB this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The fog is starting to burn off here with patches of blue sky showing up. I'm probably going to head northwest of Albany, where the storms are going to initiate as more discrete cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 this should be fun to watch for the ALB Vt area today http://www.wxforecaster.com/Satellite/New_England.html# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 NYC/Hudson Valley threads are dead, but looks like the best bet is western MA, extreme western CT, but I'm looking at interior SE NYS. Orange County is already going mostly sunny and severe weather parameters are not bad at all... No kidding, I feel like I'm talking to myself most of the time over there. Bright sunshine here in central Orange County with dews in the mid 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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