ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Amen. I'm bummed Pete won't be around if snow is falling in the Berks. Though I know many of you would rather not hear about it. We'll know if it gets exciting if ORH_wx starts posting again, especially about any snow chances. At least this is injecting some life into the board. Everyone here will have strict instructions to photograph and keep me updated. How awesome if we get a crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Also. I know Coastalwx for one would be ecstatic if GC gets buried.....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Conclusion: I don't believe there is anything particularly special in the physics of a drought that actually serves onto the drought – which is what “dry begets dry” seems to dance around as an intended meaning. It may purely be a function of once random chance has gotten a region into a dry funk, it is just statistically hard to get that region back to normal. That all said … yes, there are some truths to land-moisture deficits helping to accentuate a moisture sink. But if we think of it in terms of scaling the equation of environmental influencers, I bet those physical processes are not as determinant as the shear variability (statistical) side of the argument. IMO, "dry begets dry" works mainly in the warmer seasons, as evaporational deficit dries out the soil and reduced plant growth limits transirational moisture. Back to the weekend-plus event: 12z gfs moved the 5" qpf jackpot NE from RUM to MLT (still has 2-3" for MBY), and the big snow dump into Canada, except for that 20" bubble in the NW-most tip of Maine. It also has 1-2" snow in a band running NE from Bethel-Bangor-Danforth Sun into Mon, just before the heaviest rain is progged. I doubt that. As others have said, it's fun having something interesting to track, and the prospect of significant rain is a good thing, as our local rivers are running at less than half the previous record low flow for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Also. I know Coastalwx for one would be ecstatic if GC gets buried.....again. With rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 So good chance most of us get a inch or less?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 So good chance most of us get a inch or less?? Huh? The EC ens mean 72hr QPF valid at 162hr has 2"+ for all of SNE and CNE...1-2" for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 With rain? Your hurtful words can't bother me, my Winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 all i want is 1" of liquid Would a shot of whiskey do the trick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 NCEP's take... WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY ONWARD AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ROTH/GERHARDT If this things rides E a tad, I would suggest late season snow gets into the els of western and CNE, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 It would be sort of ironic if it found a way to snow in places where the leaves are currently at least part of the way out. No power for a week again. Bookends. I know that is pretty much impossible but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 It would be sort of ironic if it found a way to snow in places where the leaves are currently at least part of the way out. No power for a week again. Bookends. I know that is pretty much impossible but... i think we're all hoping for that. As much damage as possible is what many of us root for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Just imagine this with a negative NAO. Major spring snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Just imagine this with a negative NAO. Major spring snowstorm. Or out to sea exiting stage right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 There it is... snow has been thrown back in above 2,000ft or so. Sunday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 27. Monday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy and windy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night: Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy and blustery, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thankfully he'll be in Alaska..so the only person that would see snow in SNE won't be around. Expect farther shifts east too East??? The KFS was bringing this thing over western Pennsylvania! What a terrible model. It's like a JMA/nogaps blend interpreted by a snowNH/analog96 blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Great discussion by Taber in the BTV AFD... I know everyone in SNE is holding their breath on whether or not we get another "prolonged upslope event." FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL PHASE WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY TO PRODUCE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRES NEAR HATTERAS BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WL TRACK NE TWD THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE COAST BY TUES...AS DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION LIFTS ACRS OUR REGION. THIS WL ADVECT PLENTY OF GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT LIKELY. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS THE TRRN. GIVEN THE SHIFT FURTHER EAST IN THE SFC LOW PRES TRACK...SOME COLDER AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR NORTH...TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. GIVEN...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW AND DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...A PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT WITH SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET WL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU TUES. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ATTM...WITH A DECREASE TWD CHC POPS BY WEDS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER WITH COASTAL DEVELOP AND IMPACTS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT CONTS TO SHOW A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...ALONG WITH A COOLER SOLUTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -6C ON BACKSIDE...WHICH WL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE M30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS FOR MONDAY THRU WEDS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U20S TO U30S. FINALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...GIVEN DEVELOPING EASTERLY GRADIENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Or out to sea exiting stage right? Like the avatar.Much more interesting talking about more snow and a storm. Sure beats the excited posts over a +2.7 temp departure. I'll be so happy to read about a late season crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 East??? The KFS was bringing this thing over western Pennsylvania! What a terrible model. It's like a JMA/nogaps blend interpreted by a snowNH/analog96 blend. Ahahaha. Need to go back to the drawing board with the KFS. Major upgrade package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 East??? The KFS was bringing this thing over western Pennsylvania! What a terrible model. It's like a JMA/nogaps blend interpreted by a snowNH/analog96 blend. Refresh my memory What did you have for the high at BDL Monday? And then what was the actual? I don't recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Like the avatar.Much more interesting talking about more snow and a storm. Sure beats the excited posts over a +2.7 temp departure. I'll be so happy to read about a late season crusher. Haha, a buddy of mine caught that photo of me while I was "working" and doing some product testing. Just another day at the office. Yeah dude I don't care who gets snow out of this... Berkshires, Catskills, us, Adirondacks, Whites... I just enjoy talking and forecasting snow more than anything else. Getting big rains would be nice, but getting snow somewhere would be even more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 East??? The KFS was bringing this thing over western Pennsylvania! What a terrible model. It's like a JMA/nogaps blend interpreted by a snowNH/analog96 blend. :lmao: This definitely makes top 10 brilliant posts of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 88 and it was 92. Not a terrible forecast considering it was +28 over climo and on the high side of MOS. Not knowing your own forecast areas climo and tendencies in certain setups FTL Combine that with rip and read = PHAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Not knowing your own forecast areas climo and tendencies in certain setups FTL Combine that with rip and read = PHAIL And it was a 72 hour forecast at first. Climo says be cautious on SSW flow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Haha, a buddy of mine caught that photo of me while I was "working" and doing some product testing. Just another day at the office. Yeah dude I don't care who gets snow out of this... Berkshires, Catskills, us, Adirondacks, Whites... I just enjoy talking and forecasting snow more than anything else. Getting big rains would be nice, but getting snow somewhere would be even more fun. I'll be monitoring the situation closely. Even if I'm out of town it will be a sweet sweet victory if there is a late season thump. Hopefully the day LL gets back from roasting down in SC there will be snow down to the coast. BTW, never buy a Samsung monitor. I bought this one less than 2 yrs ago and it's on the fritz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 And it was a 72 hour forecast at first. Climo says be cautious on SSW flow in April. Any westerly componet is a compressional,downsloping flow in the valley..always tack on a few degrees for that..plus dry ground/full sun/full mixing..90 was a lock..if flow was south..then yeah go Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Any westerly componet is a compressional,downsloping flow in the valley..always tack on a few degrees for that..plus dry ground/full sun/full mixing..90 was a lock..if flow was south..then yeah go Scooter A 210 degree wind does not downslope at BDL lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 A 210 degree wind does not downslope at BDL lol Why do you insist in muddying the waters with 'fact'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Wow, just glanced at the 18Z GFS. Way east. Sure different than 24 hours ago. Much of the QPF is for the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Are you guys in SE MA getting rain right now or is that virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Wow, just glanced at the 18Z GFS. Way east. Sure different than 24 hours ago. Much of the QPF is for the fish. Disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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