ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Disaster Fortunately, as you've told us over and over, no one should even look at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Fortunately, as you've told us over and over, no one should even look at the GFS. In winter we would promptly throw this out and headline the GFS SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yeah GFS is east. Still not sure if that is the final resting place, but if the first wave is a little stronger, it might be kick the baroclinic zone east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 EC spaghetti charts at 850mb still show quite a bit of spread. Some members are cold, and some are quite warm, so this isn't done moving around probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Sick sunset right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 In winter we would promptly throw this out and headline the GFS SE bias. Messenger pants tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 18z GFS still a nice little elevation snowstorm for the Adirondacks and Greens... good upslope component there and fairly long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Sick sunset right now. totally cloudy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 18z GFS still a nice little elevation snowstorm for the Adirondacks and Greens... good upslope component there and fairly long duration. I hope you're able to post snow shot after snow shot while I'm away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 totally cloudy here Not a cloud in the sky up here... a little high thin milky moisture way up high at like 30,000ft but other than that nothing. This was about an hour ago as the shadows started growing on the east side. Just chillin' at 4K awaiting snow or rain, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Not a cloud in the sky up here... a little high thin milky moisture way up high at like 30,000ft but other than that nothing. This was about an hour ago as the shadows started growing on the east side. Just chillin' at 4K awaiting snow or rain, haha. Nice. Did you skin up for sunset? Always love to chill out for a while after the ascent and take in the sights. The descents you earn are a little sweeter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 East??? The KFS was bringing this thing over western Pennsylvania! What a terrible model. It's like a JMA/nogaps blend interpreted by a snowNH/analog96 blend. convective feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Kevective feedback FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 FYP lol, Ran from his dry beget dry basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 FYP That was really funny Scooter.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Phil posted the LLjet -Sd on his FB, very impressive. Heavy heavy rain incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yeah GFS is east. Still not sure if that is the final resting place, but if the first wave is a little stronger, it might be kick the baroclinic zone east. Eh, what baroclinic axis their is to begin with... I have 2 to 3 isopleths, tops, worth of thickness "packing" along that axis.... Not thrilled with that. I was discussing this earlier - without those gradients a lesser evolved surface solution is still on the table as a possible outcome for this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Eh, what baroclinic axis their is to begin with... I have 2 to 3 isopleths, tops, worth of thickness "packing" along that axis.... Not thrilled with that. I was discussing this earlier - without those gradients a lesser evolved surface solution is still on the table as a possible outcome for this thing. Hmm Euro ENS disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Eh, what baroclinic axis their is to begin with... I have 2 to 3 isopleths, tops, worth of thickness "packing" along that axis.... Not thrilled with that. I was discussing this earlier - without those gradients a lesser evolved surface solution is still on the table as a possible outcome for this thing. Well if you look at theta-e, there is a decent gradient. Temps might not be overly different, but the airmass Td difference is pretty big which may help. It's April so it can be tough to get 960 bombs, but I see this becoming a pretty strong low somewhere in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Geez Wunderground weenie Euro snow maps are something, kick that 850 east 50 miles and there's Scoobs bookender. Should be an exciting , for a change, week of weather watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 LOL... so now it looks like Saturday would be the day that features the heaviest rains? Just looked at the 18z GFS/0z NAM and noth have a major slug of precip out ahead of the front and then the front moves offshore and low development is just off to our east so eastern MA would probably get the most from this. Honestly I would even be surprised if we saw very little rain at all along the front even those both the NAM/GFS have juicy RH fields...watch them dry up as we get closer. I don't even know what to think...I'm doing something Sat. and I told everyone it was going to be nice out and near 70F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Lol... GFS says, "When in doubt, go uneventful." Why would this be any different than the last 6 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Lol... GFS says, "When in doubt, go uneventful." Why would this be any different than the last 6 months? bookender ...would not be different but HPC guys are biting hard.....this could be a central appalachian elevation snow bomb ....a seven springs pa snow shoe wv biggest event of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The GGEM is still on steriods: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The 0Z Euro says the American models are full of it. Still a takes the surface low (closed to many contours at 5H) to NE and the blue bomb of wet snow in Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Models are an absolute hot mess for this weekend/early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Euro ensemble mean is over N NJ by 00z Tuesday as a 999mb low. Still looks like a ton of spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This setup looks a little like April '07 noreaster, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This setup looks a little like April '07 noreaster, no? 4/07 developed farther south and crawled up the coast. This looks like it will move along a bit faster until it cuts off over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 2"+ again on the EC op/ens. Despite the details, every run has been very wet for a couple of days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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