danstorm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well we can probably lock in on final track now which should take it over or east of Cape. Ene is the place to be if you want over 1 inch. Prob like Orh on east Too far east - take your own advice and see the forest through the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well we can probably lock in on final track now which should take it over or east of Cape. Ene is the place to be if you want over 1 inch. Prob like Orh on east I'd hold that thought. I think you still look pretty good. On phone so can't go into specifics but I bet euro still soaks you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 KFS has flip flopped back west again as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I'd hold that thought. I think you still look pretty good. On phone so can't go into specifics but I bet euro still soaks you. yeah i think there's still room for it to be further west...like up into LI/CT region. GFS was certainly closer this go around to making that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Too far east - take your own advice and see the forest through the trees. I'd bet Euro rips East this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well I was referring to the Ct. river valley, which is right on the half-inch line. My house is 15 minutes southeast on a hill so the climate is not exactly the same but still more western MA than C MA. Still downsloping on the east wind to some extent. hmmm...i'll have to go back and look. not that it matters much but i thought it had all of SNE >1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Gotta think that there would be some intense banding west and northwest of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Can we consider this a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I'd bet Euro rips East this afternoon It might, but it won't be east of the Goofus. Tracks starting to merge ... other models are leaning towards the Euro. I'd weight the track 75% Euro/ 25% GFS at this point. I live in NYC and want the rain - O/U for KNYC this weekend would take the Over but it's not a slam dunk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 hmmm...i'll have to go back and look. not that it matters much but i thought it had all of SNE >1" Sorry I should've clarified I was referring to the Sunday night into Monday coastal specifically... Including the saturday northern stream stuff would definitely push us up to inch or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Gotta think that there would be some intense banding west and northwest of the low. Bingo, Goofy often misses this with a deepening low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Wonder if we sneak out an 80 degree day at many places inland on Saturday? Looks like might. Then an evening storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Gotta think that there would be some intense banding west and northwest of the low. With that track there is quite a fetch of moisture off the Atlantic so there should be a bit of enhancement further back it would seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Maybe I was correct in not yet putting a final season snowfall in my signature. LOL Of course I was just lazy ..it's not that I really thought it could snow again. If the track shifts west of like the CT Valley though...then the best blue bomb threat shifts west of me also into central NY. I'd bet Euro rips East this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Let's play some O/Us, shall we? KNYC: 1" KBOS: 2" KTOL: 1.5" KMRG: 1" snow KPowderfreak: 3" snow Highest event total (QPF): 4" Go! (Feel free to add any other questions deemed relevant) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Beautiful deformation field. Clear signal for banding up through W CT, W MA, into S and C NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Sam called for a NNE snowstorm two weeks ago for the 22 nd, get ur weenie maps here, get ur weenie maps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 KFS has flip flopped back west again as well disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 disaster. Catastrophic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 i dont think we will get at storm this weekend . models are changing all the time and are not that strong today with lot less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 12z ggem is pretty similar to the GFS overall...though a bit deeper with the slp. has the same bullseye of precip over eastern areas on the nose of the low and mid-level jet that develops east of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 i dont think we will get at storm this weekend . models are changing all the time and are not that strong today with lot less precip. the KFS agrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 12z ggem is pretty similar to the GFS overall...though a bit deeper with the slp. has the same bullseye of precip over eastern areas on the nose of the low and mid-level jet that develops east of the MA. Yeah unfortunately it looks like we are converging on final solution. If Euro shifts east it's time to issue you, Scooter, and Downeast Maine congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yeah unfortunately it looks like we are converging on final solution. If Euro shifts east it's time to issue you, Scooter, and Downeast Maine congrats all these runs still give most of SNE a good soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 this could easily come west... how can anyone "lock" in a track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 this could easily come west... how can anyone "lock" in a track? dry begets dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yeah unfortunately it looks like we are converging on final solution. If Euro shifts east it's time to issue you, Scooter, and Downeast Maine congrats Yup, Still 100hrs out and all winter models could not get it right inside 48 hrs, We still have some time i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 all these runs still give most of SNE a good soaking rain. I don't think an inch is enough to do much for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 dry begets dry maybe if this were texas in july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 lol, No dry begets with the atlantic nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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