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March 2nd-4th Winter Storm

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

Gaylord seems to make sense. While the UP has some decent snow cover right now. You would have to go west of Marquette to get the major snow depth but honestly this is not really an impressive this year to do that type of trip. One of these major LES years you should do a Keweenaw trip. It is very impressive. I have been there a few times during a couple of those 300"+ winters.

My favorite place around Gaylord area is just to the west: Petoskey & Charlevoix. Just love that area!!

Kalkaska county is the bomb when it comes to snow in the nw lower area. Second is around the boyne falls/east jordan area.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
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Usually there are strong reasons to be suspect of anything the NAM does, especially when it tends to be a big outlier on the synoptic handling of a system, but the NAM here does (considering it is initializing correctly...always a big "if" these days it seems) have some utility here as this system will be deepening strongly off relatively extreme low level frontogenetic/upper jet scale properties. The cyclone itself is pretty small, and it will also have a strong warm sector moisture feed, so this will also have a tendency to force rapid pressure falls if this comes together correctly. Moist frontogenesis has been known to be drivers for storm intensification...rather rapidly sometimes. The meso models will have a slight "edge" w.r.t. this. 0Z RGEM is not too far off the NAM either.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
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O here we go again...not believing the nam one bit...its full of crap.. llol

This isn't a snowstorm for here, no model at any point has shown it to be a snowstorm for here. What reason is the NAM full of crap other than it not showing a snowstorm for your backyard?

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Ajdos

Ajdos

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This isn't a snowstorm for here, no model at any point has shown it to be a snowstorm for here. What reason is the NAM full of crap other than it not showing a snowstorm for your backyard?

The nam tends to overdo the prcp...that's all I'm saying.. Last event was an example..

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Stebo

Stebo

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The nam tends to overdo the prcp...that's all I'm saying.. Last event was an example..

I'll buy that especially if there is a strong convective complex south of the low robbing moisture influx, although with the current system I would argue the NAM did better than the GFS with respect to QPF

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Ajdos

Ajdos

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Seems like all of these models look amazing 2 days prior, and then the day of the storm... BAMMM nothing...then run by run, less qpf... the last two storms were examples....Some places did get some decent amounts of snowfall with yesterdays system, however it was not as widespread as models were showing...and then last Wed system, showing S/E Michigan getting hammered, 10 hours before the storm, BAMMMM models start cutting on qpf, low placement was off..w/e..

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
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Seems like all of these models look amazing 2 days prior, and then the day of the storm... BAMMM nothing...then run by run, less qpf... the last two storms were examples....Some places did get some decent amounts of snowfall with yesterdays system, however it was not as widespread as models were showing...and then last Wed system, showing S/E Michigan getting hammered, 10 hours before the storm, BAMMMM models start cutting on qpf, low placement was off..w/e..

Tell that to Crandon, WI folks and their 23 inches. I know what you're saying, though. I'm not sure if the Hi-RES models and WRFs are as bad as the RUC in their longer ranges, but it's still impressive to see what they're indicating.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

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The LSX WRF is hardly a weenie model :rolleyes:

You're right, that one isn't; kind of hard to believe it could be spitting out 0.6-0.7" QPF in 3 hours in the cold sector. MKX is definitely going to have to consider headlines for parts of the forecast area if models continue to point to this potential.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Seems like all of these models look amazing 2 days prior, and then the day of the storm... BAMMM nothing...then run by run, less qpf... the last two storms were examples....Some places did get some decent amounts of snowfall with yesterdays system, however it was not as widespread as models were showing...and then last Wed system, showing S/E Michigan getting hammered, 10 hours before the storm, BAMMMM models start cutting on qpf, low placement was off..w/e..

Eh, if you want to split hairs....this storm is still almost 2 days away. With that snowstorm-that-wasnt last week, the models were all over the place to the point of 48+ hours out we didnt even know if thered be a storm...then boom they started saying wed get slammed, then it tracked way NW at the last minute. Then of course todays snowstorm, though dumping on a few places in WI real hard, was MUCH less severe than anticipated in most of Minnesota and northern Michigan. But dont let these last 2 storms set the mark for all snows. Actually qpf-wise, todays rainstorm greatly overproduced here. No model had us getting 0.7"+ qpf. Lastly, dont forget, its something no one in SE MI probably wants to admit, but most of our snowfalls were overproducers as well this winter. There were just no real big storms (like these last few) to make a splash or make it noteworthy, but most events overproduced nevertheless. So while ALL should be cautious with this storm, certainly dont blow it off either.

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Harry

Harry

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Euro a bit further se ( track close to say Jackson? ) but ala a bit weaker too till it gets north of here. A solid advisory event from say Grand Rapids on nw and perhaps warning up towards Gaylord/N.MI and the E.UP. .50+ for eastern WI from near Milwaukee all the way up the lake to UP of MI..

For those hoping for a se trend so we can get a snowstorm you may as well forget it because the only way this goes se is if it is weaker. You will rarely if ever see a trend se with a strong/stronger storm. Sure we could score the usual 1-3/3-6 but that would be it and as seing how this looks to be a daytime event with no meaningful cold air around the odd's are good it would be a 1-3/2-4 type deal IF that which I suppose it is fine for those who wanna pad their seasonal totals i guess. lol Other then that meh.. This is a C/N MI/WI special. :)

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Euro a bit further se ( track close to say Jackson? ) but ala a bit weaker too till it gets north of here. A solid advisory event from say Grand Rapids on nw and perhaps warning up towards Gaylord/N.MI and the E.UP. .50+ for eastern WI from near Milwaukee all the way up the lake to UP of MI..

For those hoping for a se trend so we can get a snowstorm you may as well forget it because the only way this goes se is if it is weaker. You will rarely if ever see a trend se with a strong/stronger storm. Sure we could score the usual 1-3/3-6 but that would be it and as seing how this looks to be a daytime event with no meaningful cold air around the odd's are good it would be a 1-3/2-4 type deal IF that which I suppose it is fine for those who wanna pad their seasonal totals i guess. lol Other then that meh.. This is a C/N MI/WI special. :)

Probably the one time you see a SE trend with a legitimately stronger storm are Leeside lows that dig farther S before ejecting and tap more GOM moisture. I think the classics that go CO to SE MN/NW IA.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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Euro a bit further se ( track close to say Jackson? ) but ala a bit weaker too till it gets north of here. A solid advisory event from say Grand Rapids on nw and perhaps warning up towards Gaylord/N.MI and the E.UP. .50+ for eastern WI from near Milwaukee all the way up the lake to UP of MI..

For those hoping for a se trend so we can get a snowstorm you may as well forget it because the only way this goes se is if it is weaker. You will rarely if ever see a trend se with a strong/stronger storm. Sure we could score the usual 1-3/3-6 but that would be it and as seing how this looks to be a daytime event with no meaningful cold air around the odd's are good it would be a 1-3/2-4 type deal IF that which I suppose it is fine for those who wanna pad their seasonal totals i guess. lol Other then that meh.. This is a C/N MI/WI special. :)

Muskegon is ALWAYS on the line of snow/no snow. Once again, here we sit. When I moved here I thought I was moving to "snow heaven" with an average of 100 inches. I have NO IDEA where that comes from. Storm after storm I am on edge because we are "right on the line" whether it be all the snow north of us or south of us. Locals keep telling me it used to be "the place to be" for snow...

I have noticed we will not get as much snow as nearly everybody else during snow events (downsloping????)...and then a few times we're the only place that gets a lot of snow (strange lake enhanced bands). So it's either we get dumped on (like last January) while nobody else does, or we get the shaft. You've lived here longer than me...any thoughts?

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