Baum Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 6Z GFS....hmmm. Seems like it trended it south and east. Guess will wait and see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 NAM is a Saukville special...but who knows at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS shows a lot less for Saukville... not too impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Muskegon is ALWAYS on the line of snow/no snow. Once again, here we sit. When I moved here I thought I was moving to "snow heaven" with an average of 100 inches. I have NO IDEA where that comes from. Storm after storm I am on edge because we are "right on the line" whether it be all the snow north of us or south of us. Locals keep telling me it used to be "the place to be" for snow... I have noticed we will not get as much snow as nearly everybody else during snow events (downsloping????)...and then a few times we're the only place that gets a lot of snow (strange lake enhanced bands). So it's either we get dumped on (like last January) while nobody else does, or we get the shaft. You've lived here longer than me...any thoughts? Didn't you break 100" last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 good luck wisconsin crew, low really explodes at just the right time...snow threat is real up there. I'm going to have to pass, this time of year it's all or nothing and this won't be all for folks down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Muskegon is ALWAYS on the line of snow/no snow. Once again, here we sit. When I moved here I thought I was moving to "snow heaven" with an average of 100 inches. I have NO IDEA where that comes from. Storm after storm I am on edge because we are "right on the line" whether it be all the snow north of us or south of us. Locals keep telling me it used to be "the place to be" for snow... I have noticed we will not get as much snow as nearly everybody else during snow events (downsloping????)...and then a few times we're the only place that gets a lot of snow (strange lake enhanced bands). So it's either we get dumped on (like last January) while nobody else does, or we get the shaft. You've lived here longer than me...any thoughts? How many years have you been living in Muskegon? Where did you live before? Muskegon is a great area for snow but not the prime Snow winner is SW MI. Like every location on the planet there are good years and bad years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 12z NAM going to pull a classic weaker, less phased and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks like the NAM wraps snow into Chicago more. But as you said Alek, it is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks like the NAM wraps snow into Chicago more. But as you said, Alek it is weaker. not really, most of that falls before temps get cold enough, maybe a slushy inch up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looking like this system will be too late of a bloomer to drop much of any snow down here. Temp will be iffy when our precip is falling and it should lift out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Didn't you break 100" last year? Yup...got most of it in January! Which is what I was saying. Grand Rapids didn't fair nearly as well as we did. We kept getting clippers with Southwest Lake enhanced snowfall. It was awesome. But if we don't get those SW winds, snowfall seems to stink here. In addition, if the lake isn't cold and frozen, those SW winds are killers, like this year. I guess if you lived here and were focused on the radar for this particular area during snowstorms, you'd often see the precip. weaken over the Muskegon area. I don't know what causes it...the only explanation I have is downsloping. But if that's the case, I don't see why it wouldn't affect other areas...which is what I've been looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 How many years have you been living in Muskegon? Where did you live before? Muskegon is a great area for snow but not the prime Snow winner is SW MI. Like every location on the planet there are good years and bad years. I lived in Lancaster, PA. I have lived in Muskegon for three years. In those three years, we've had the hottest summer on record and the second warmest winter on record. lol Definitely picked the wrong time to move here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 You have to wonder if convection to the south will suck the life out of the beast. Also..if someone could clarify when this becomes an issue and how would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I lived in Lancaster, PA. I have lived in Muskegon for three years. In those three years, we've had the hottest summer on record and the second warmest winter on record. lol Definitely picked the wrong time to move here.... I spend a lot of time on the west side of the state normally. Yeah LES has been lame the past few years. There have been moments of great LES events like there was mid-January but there has not been one of those prolonged LES Winters in quite a while. These past few winters have been very up and down with the temps. Also during some of the cold outbreaks the wind direction has been bad too. Don't worry it will not always be this way. Keep in mind that Muskegon does very well but not the snow magnet that Allegan County is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Northern Lower looks to fair very well with this system...looks like a very intense band of snowfal as the low rapidly strengthens through MI. Some locations up there should hit 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 12z NAM going to pull a classic weaker, less phased and warmer And the 12Z GFS comes in wetter.. Lol looks like they switched places.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 And the 12Z GFS comes in wetter.. Lol looks like they switched places.. They'll probably converge on a slushy 4-8 hit for eastern WI. EDIT: northern mitten looking hot on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 And the 12Z GFS comes in wetter.. Lol looks like they switched places.. Came in a bit further W compared to 06/00z runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This will probably end up being another 8:1 ratio snow or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This will probably end up being another 8:1 ratio snow or so. Yes, it will be a heavy wet snow, though I think your area probably misses out. This is a MKE and North special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yes, it will be a heavy wet snow, though I think your area probably misses out. This is a MKE and North special Geos is in play for a couple sloppy inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 So Saukville, Tropical, Cromartie, Palmguy69 is looking at a 10 inches of slop...better protect those palms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Surprised there is no SWS's out for N MI or SE WI yet. Slushies anyone!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 So Saukville, Tropical, Cromartie, Palmguy69 is looking at a 10 inches of slop...better protect those palms. More like four inches at best, unless this is delayed by six hours. It won't be pretty for snow accumulation coming through in the afternoon, even with this ideal track. Anyone think dynamic cooling can overcome these factors? I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 There we go! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1106 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012 ...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... .LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FROM ILLINOIS FRIDAY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME WARMER AIR WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AT THE OUTSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL ALLOW ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SNOW. THIS WILL BE A WET HEAVY SNOW. THE MODEL TRACK OF THIS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-020115- /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0004.120302T1800Z-120303T0600Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM... WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON... LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON... MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE... KENOSHA 1106 AM CST THU MAR 1 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * TIMING...RAIN OR A LIGHT MIX IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER...FROM MILWAUKEE AND JANESVILLE SOUTH. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH...THEN NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE HEAVY SNOW. SNOW COVERED ROADS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 12z UK - Models are coming together nicely this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 UKMET is getting this thing together! With NE winds tomorrow, that will keep temperatures down and also help filter in colder air. NE IL might need a watch if this model is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 UKMET is getting this thing together! With NE winds tomorrow, that will keep temperatures down and also help filter in colder air. NE IL might need a watch if this model is right. outside your area hugging the border, this is not brining snow into NE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Will lake enhancement be a factor on the cold side of the storm? Typically, with the track that is being indicated, it would, and with such a deep system, winds will be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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