UW-weather Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 new forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 If you have never experienced such a storm i would do it. No it is not your backyard ( which nothing can come close to ) but still it is a experience you will enjoy alot and probably never forget atleast till one happens in your backyard. Oh and congrats to our WI/IL and C/N MI peeps. Atleast someone in this region will have seen a respectable winter storm this winter. Gotta love seeing the models go a bit deeper/stronger with this storm vs the typical fade out. I suspect some places could need a blizzard warning? It will probably be hard to get sleep, because most of the storm will be happening at night. Three storms stick in my mind for insane snowfall rates experienced imby would be Mar 4, 2008, Dec 19, 2008, and Feb 20, 2011. In each of those cases a good 6" fell in less than 3 hours time, though when you look at storm totals its the same old thing (Mar 4/5, 2008 - 10.3", Dec 19, 2008 - 8.2", Feb 20/21, 2011 - 10.2"), the key being that that insane snowfall lasted 3 hours. If the models verified it would be more like 6 hours with those kind of rates up north. I notice that the Gaylord NWS is not even coming close to mentioning the insane totals the NAM would indicate, probably for good reason. This storm would be epic for them even, but can never trust the NAMs qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 0z GFS still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 0z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 0z GFS still looks good. when you say looks good, what exactly do you mean? Based on everything I see this looks like a decent snow for southern Wisconsin. Are you thinking something else for the Chicago area? What are your thoughts on Chicago area? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 This run of the GFS looks a bit colder in NE IL. Cold air meets up with the moisture better. Northern Cook, Du Page could get in on fun too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 when you say looks good, what exactly do you mean? Based on everything I see this looks like a decent snow for southern Wisconsin. Are you thinking something else for the Chicago area? What are your thoughts on Chicago area? Thanks in advance. for possibly a few inches of snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Definitely happy we could get a few inches tomorrow, but I gotta say knowing this thing would dump a LOT more snow on us if it strengthened 6hrs earlier is killing me lol. Oh well. Funny just a few days ago the NAM showed significant tornado parameters not too far south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Low on the 0z GFS is at 984mb as it crosses into MI. ~earlier then the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm REALLY hoping I can get in on the snow fun! As always (at least since I've moved here), my area is right on the line....local mets seem to be ignoring the models and not really even talking about the potential, despite the models showing us getting some good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Our storm is being born over Oklahoma, strong frontogenesis and pressures down to 997 mb across a broad SW to NE axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm REALLY hoping I can get in on the snow fun! As always (at least since I've moved here), my area is right on the line....local mets seem to be ignoring the models and not really even talking about the potential, despite the models showing us getting some good snow. On the GFS, you get in on the snow right after hour 24. You should get some accumulation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 On the GFS, you get in on the snow right after hour 24. You should get some accumulation there. Thanks for the head's up! The NAM has looked pretty good for us all day, so I'm glad the GFS is on board. It's definitely Milwaukee's and our turn to get in on a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Wow, the RGEM drops the surface low over 20mb in 12hrs down to 971mb. Northern lower MI gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 After looking over the GFS and RGEM, I'm going with 1-2" for here and the QC. My initial 2-4" thinking was a bit hasty as it was based largely on the new NAM. This thing's just moving too fast to do much damage here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 After looking over the GFS and RGEM, I'm going with 1-2" for here and the QC. My initial 2-4" thinking was a bit hasty as it was based largely on the new NAM. This thing's just moving too fast to do much damage here. Any ideas what DVN is expecting for NW IL - Dubuque area? Earlier they were mentioning 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Any ideas what DVN is expecting for NW IL - Dubuque area? Earlier they were mentioning 4-7". Probably an advisory level event for about the northern third of their CWA. I would guess 2-5" up in that area. Amounts will steadily drop off to below advisory level south of that, including the QCA. I suspect they aren't anticipating a warning event up north as they haven't pulled the strings on a WSW after the 00z guidance came out. This is very different from the system last week, which moved very slowly through the area. This one will be finished before 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Man, just look how the NAM crushes northern Michigan in this loop. Wow. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_0z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Man, just look how the NAM crushes northern Michigan in this loop. Wow. http://www.meteo.psu...D_0z/jloop.html Impressive! Wish I could head up that way too, like Michsnowfreak is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Impressive! Wish I could head up that way too, like Michsnowfreak is! Heck yeah, that's definitely the place to be tomorrow. I'm definitely jealous of him lol. Should be a great storm up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looks like some radar returns southwest of Rockford. RUC hinted at this traversing N IL. 34°/30° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looks like some radar returns southwest of Rockford. RUC hinted at this traversing N IL. 34°/30° here. MKX radar looks like its back up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MKX radar looks like its back up!! I think they worked overnight today, to get that back up! Just in time. When does the new UKMET run come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 When does the new UKMET run come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Ok! Thanks. 984mb seems to be the number between this model, the NAM, and GFS in the general area east of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Euro appears to be the oddman out this go around. Weaker with a track further to the se of all the other models and the 12z euro run. As usual it is drier with just under a half inch QPF for se WI and 1/2 inch plus west/north of I69 to Lansing MI and less further east/southeast. Bullseye of 1 inch + ( 1 - 1.25 ) near Gaylord. Tracks to LAF to just east of Jackson on to Huron where it has it at 984mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 0z Euro looks to be a tad better for snow amounts than 12z, which had a general 2-5" around Milwaukee based on the Wunderground maps. There is a small area of 2-3" for the 3 hour period from 21-00z just west of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Euro appears to be the oddman out this go around. Weaker with a track further to the se of all the other models and the 12z euro run. As usual it is drier with just under a half inch QPF for se WI and 1/2 inch plus west/north of I69 to Lansing MI and less further east/southeast. Bullseye of 1 inch + ( 1 - 1.25 ) near Gaylord. Tracks to LAF to just east of Jackson on to Huron where it has it at 984mb. I think what saves it from being awful compared to the other models is it is a tad cooler I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 0z Euro looks to be a tad better for snow amounts than 12z, which had a general 2-5" around Milwaukee based on the Wunderground maps. There is a small area of 2-3" for the 3 hour period from 21-00z just west of MKE. Does the EURO handle convective elements very well? It doesn't, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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