NNE Feb 24-25 Secondary Cyclogenesis and Upslope Obs

[HoarfrostHubb]

hello from north of NNE. light snow beginning in downtown montreal....juicy radar incoming. rooting hard to come home to 6+ on the ground.

How has their winter been?

[mahk_webstah]

How has their winter been?

not much on the ground, but otherwise i don't know. heading out now. good luck!

[N. OF PIKE]

dave i go to plymouth state university for soundings.....the skew graph for you locals like ORH/FIT seem good fits ..esp to monitor the sneaky warm layer that maybe around 750-800mb level. just follow the 0c line side ways on the graph (up and to the right) and hope your temp profile line doesn't puncture thru the 0c level, i believe

[dendrite]

33.7/28.8 with not much going on right now. Hopefully the mid levels stay cool enough and I don't end up with a sleet fest by 1C.

[N. OF PIKE]

BTV is calling for 18-24 on their map forecast for killington area.

boston ski trips is heading there this weekend ...80$ bucks for round trip bus and lift ticket

http://www.skitrip.net/documents/ConwayBostonLine.pdf

[Snow Bow]

Temp has dropped about 1.5 degrees in the last hour down to 36.5. At this point I'd rather have a sleet fest that a rain fest.

[HoarfrostHubb]

dave i go to plymouth state university for soundings.....the skew graph for you locals like ORH/FIT seem good fits ..esp to monitor the sneaky warm layer that maybe around 750-800mb level. just follow the 0c line side ways on the graph (up and to the right) and hope your temp profile line doesn't puncture thru the 0c level, i believe

It seems I need a refresher on these every 30 days or so. Wiz, Ginx, Scooter, Ryan (weatherMA) I think have shown this to me several times.

Temp profile is the red one, correct? If so, both KFIT and KORH are all below the 0C for both the NAM and GFS

But it is raining here attm...31.5F

[dendrite]

33.7/28.8 with not much going on right now. Hopefully the mid levels stay cool enough and I don't end up with a sleet fest by 1C.

Check that. 33.5F with some -DZ. This is obviously occuring in the very low levels where it isn't cold enough for nucleation...there isn't anything on radar near here either.

[Snow Bow]

Check that. 33.5F with some -DZ. This is obviously occuring in the very low levels where it isn't cold enough for nucleation...there isn't anything on radar near here either.

I had some pretty dense drizzle for the last hour and a half with nothing on radar either. Not in Concord today? Although nothing freezing that I could tell.

Just looking outside, I can see the low level clouds streaming in from the east, drizzle must be from onshore flow in the very low levels because the radar is coming from the southwest.

[N. OF PIKE]

It seems I need a refresher on these every 30 days or so. Wiz, Ginx, Scooter, Ryan (weatherMA) I think have shown this to me several times.

Temp profile is the red one, correct? If so, both KFIT and KORH are all below the 0C for both the NAM and GFS

But it is raining here attm...31.5F

nice bands of precip firing off the South and west......maps didn't have any accums till after 5pm for your area so ...i'd just watch the radar and hope for a QPF fest later.....this situ is explosive

[dendrite]

I had some pretty dense drizzle for the last hour and a half with nothing on radar either. Not in Concord today? Although nothing freezing that I could tell.

No...I have the day off. This drizzle is saturating things up and wetbulbing down to near freezing. 33.2F now with 85% RH. This should be plenty cold later if the mid levels will cooperate.

[wxmanmitch]

Just had some echoes come through here and is sadly nothing but ugly, old, unadulterated rain. No ice pellets or anything. My surface temperature is 33° F, but there is probably a thin layer of subfreezing wet bulbs just above the surface and below the warm layer, but it isn't enough to freeze the drops. I'm hoping the cold air may catch the backside of the precip and we get a period of snow from the secondary somewhere between 00Z and 03Z, although hope this winter has been futile.

[N. OF PIKE]

dave looks like the warm layer gets worse and worse for you at 750-825 mb thru 9pm pm till mid levels temps crash around 3z (10pm)

at least taking a peak at the ORH/FIT sounding off the 12z nam. so for the 10pm period remember you wanna look at the 15 hr soundings. (12z) 7am plus 15 hours = 10 pm tonite

so looks like you could start to snow around 8-9 or so given your NW of the ORH-KFIT line

[weatherMA]

34.8F here with dz. Pretty exciting wx. Can't wait for my 34F rain ending as flurries!

[neweathereye]

Cloudy here in Augusta Maine with a current temp of 37F We got up to 39F...had some earlier light snow aloft..radar indicated ..Waiting..still think totals are underdone here..Freaken weather channel forecast had only 2 inches here tonight...seriously..??

[Snow Bow]

No...I have the day off. This drizzle is saturating things up and wetbulbing down to near freezing. 33.2F now with 85% RH. This should be plenty cold later if the mid levels will cooperate.

Dropping still here .5 degrees in last ten minutes, 85% relative humidity here too, temp 36 dp 31. Would that cut it later on? I was getting a little worried earlier when I was 38 and heading in the wrong direction. Not that I feel all that much better now.

I keep forgetting there's someone in Bow with a Davis and I default to CON's reading. Theirs is at 93% RH, 34.3/32.5.

[dendrite]

15z SREFs are juicy for here through NNE. They ticked ever so slightly cooler than 9z with more spread SE of the 0C 850 isotherm compared to the previous run too. It's such a close call for C NH.

33.1F

[dendrite]

Dropping still here .5 degrees in last ten minutes, 85% relative humidity here too, temp 36 dp 31. Would that cut it later on? I was getting a little worried earlier when I was 38 and heading in the wrong direction.

That's cutting it close imo. As the secondary gets cranking you should be able to drain in some cooler air later if we can get the ageostrophic flow to kick in out of the N/NE.

[drew13btv]

Really coming down near BTV now as over 2:45. Big heavy flakes accumulating on pavement now.

[J.Spin]

More recently (~2:30 P.M.), visibility has really dropped off here in Burlington to roughly ¼ mile with notably heavier snow and flakes in the ½” to ¾” range. The radar shows this with the 35 db echoes coming through the area.

[dendrite]

18z NAM starts as PL, but quickly turns over to snow a little after 00z for C NH. We could rack up a few inches, but this looks primarily like a N NH/interior ME snow bomb with the Greens catching up with the upslope over the next 24hrs.

[MaineJayhawk]

18z NAM starts as PL, but quickly turns over to snow a little after 00z for C NH. We could rack up a few inches, but this looks primarily like a N NH/interior ME snow bomb with the Greens catching up with the upslope over the next 24hrs.

amarshall should be full frontal wherever it is he went.

[amarshall]

For all of my off-topic banter bothering you guys the last two days about which mountain to go to, I'm bailing.

The only day I can ski is tomorrow. With gas prices and expensive lift tickets, I can't drive 4 hours to sit in a bar all day waiting for a wind hold.

This winter sucks.

[weatherMA]

34F and +RA, no sleet or anything.

[dendrite]

MAUL

[MaineJayhawk]

amarshall should be full frontal wherever it is he went.

For all of my off-topic banter bothering you guys the last two days about which mountain to go to, I'm bailing.

The only day I can ski is tomorrow. With gas prices and expensive lift tickets, I can't drive 4 hours to sit in a bar all day waiting for a wind hold.

This winter sucks.

Full frontal cancel.

[Typhoon Tip]

34F and +RA, no sleet or anything.

You're in good company while the atmosphere forces the NAM's thermal field bust - watching crime as it unfolds ahaha

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice on the MAUL

15z ETA looks pretty solid. Looks like the 0c 850 line only gets to Bennington/Keene/Manchester

[Typhoon Tip]

MAUL

...

It may end up amusing when something happens inevitably to screw this up for you guys too -

[CoastalWx]

MAUL

Not only that, some of those Maine sites like MLT had elevated CAPE. That's why I thought someone could get TSSN, especially as the dryslot tries to wrap in from the east and southeast.