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Assorted Amorphous Threats


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FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/30 GUIDANCE WAS JUST AS CHAOTIC AS THE 00Z/30

CYCLE...WITH NO MODEL TO MODEL NOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. AT

LEAST THE 12Z/30 GEFS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE MANUAL

BLEND...INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE

SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 5. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

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The EC ensembles look like the op in a way for Saturday. They have a weak low riding south..maybe just south of the BM by a hair.

They also have the isobars hang back west, possibly tipping the cap towards the euro op idea of another low maybe trying to develop. They do not fold the ridge over and cut off the low as bad as previous runs or the GFS op.

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The EC ensembles look like the op in a way for Saturday. They have a weak low riding south..maybe just south of the BM by a hair.

They also have the isobars hang back west, possibly tipping the cap towards the euro op idea of another low maybe trying to develop. They do not fold the ridge over and cut off the low as bad as previous runs or the GFS op.

i'd be happy with that.

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My advice is wait til everything is near or onshore the West Coast, the recon flights I think have been run before but having the system onshore is probably still the best bet.

Not buying anything outside of 5 days, Not even buying anything until inside 72 hrs really, Should be well onshore by then, Just commenting on some that were inquiring on recon

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FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/30 GUIDANCE WAS JUST AS CHAOTIC AS THE 00Z/30

CYCLE...WITH NO MODEL TO MODEL NOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. AT

LEAST THE 12Z/30 GEFS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE MANUAL

BLEND...INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE

SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 5. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

Volatile

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Not negativity, just reality.

We have what looks like a beautiful +PNA ridge at face value, a solidly negative AO, and a neutral NAO which shouldn't be an issue in New England. So what's the problem? We still have the l/w trough over the Aleutians and extending into the GOA. Disturbances within the trough track northeastward, constantly knocking down the +PNA ridge, and triggering anticyclonic wavebreaking ...which is what is trapping our Feb 6 storm in the southwest. "Change" the pattern as many times as you want, but if we keep that un-La Nina-like trough over the North Pacific, we're always running into problems.

But I'm just being negative

You were whacking it to this weekend's potential up until like yesterday.

.

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It appears that a wave of low pressure will emerge from the Tennessee Valley and blossom northeastward toward New England. It is too premature to precisely specify where the rain/snow line will set up but it presently looks like rain over southeastern MA and snow roughly near and west of the I-95 corridor. It could amount to several inches. This storm exits by midday Friday then we will be watching another potential storm the second half of next weekend. Since yesterday, timing and tracks of these systems have changed so expect these fluctuations to occur going forward this week.

Burbank seemed to be on board for the first low last night, but obviously it looks less likely as of today.

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You were whacking it to this weekend's potential up until like yesterday.

.

Sort of, yes. I said I liked the pattern leading into it, and its juxtaposition with some degree of a pattern change underway. Usually this helps to farm out specific wavelengths, making for a heightened storm threat.

The last two days, I mentioned the problems I was seeing (which I said before the model guidance started to go sour on us). Last night confirmed these worries, and now not feeling so hot about the weekend.

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No not at all, Whatever works, Probably like snowgoose says it would be better to wait until its onshore for a better samplng

I did not make one comment about the outcome of the data input. It was a simple question; not sure sure how you're reading any more into it.

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I still think wave 1 could produce...but more likely wave #2 will be the best bet for anything. The trend of cutting off the energy completely in the southwest is a bit disconcerting, but very often we see models take it too far in the medium range and even just a piece of that energy escaping to the northeast will produce something...almost like the Euro showed for Saturday.

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Do you think Eric and Snow are eating dinner together right now?

How do you feel that you have had less snow than you hair length this year?

I love how storm #2 keeps getting pushed back. GFS has it slated as a miller B for Monday night now lol.

Day 7... rinse and repeat.

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