Logan11 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It really doesn't matter if this winter still sucks because Nov/Dec/Jan sucked. That's in the past and dead now. All I care about is getting a few decent events in February/March. And if I'm sitting here on February 29th and Feb. also sucked, I'll still be hoping to pull something out in March. That's just the way I with snow. I'd be hoping for a snowstorm in May if it looked possible. What are you talking about? Even if there is a good 2,3 week stretch this winter still sucks. Even if we get a KU, this winter still blows. February 1st is tomorrow. The sun really ramps up starting tomorrow IMO..Daylight is growing exponentially. Winter is OVAH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 honestly i don't know why you think the GFS is so bad. it's definitely prone to do some weird things now and then but it's also run 4 times a day which makes it look worse than it is, and it goes to 16 days which is stupid. if it were run to 5 or 7 days only 2x day people wouldn't hate on it nearly as much. it's done fine this winter. It's terrible outside of 3 days. Atrocious. If you want to say it's decent under that timeframe I could possibly buy that. It's sually the last to the party on storms, and usually butchers temp regimes one way or the other depending on the situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Having the door open to zonal flow is not ripe for snow threats. IF that happens. That's the concern. But again..you are basing that solely on what the Euro ens did last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Valentines Day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It's terrible outside of 3 days. Atrocious. If you want to say it's decent under that timeframe I could possibly buy that. It's sually the last to the party on storms, and usually butchers temp regimes one way or the other depending on the situation i think it's had a decent run this winter. just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 What are you talking about? Even if there is a good 2,3 week stretch this winter still sucks. Even if we get a KU, this winter still blows. February 1st is tomorrow. The sun really ramps up starting tomorrow IMO..Daylight is growing exponentially. Winter is OVAH! Except the second a model shows a storm you'll be naked dry humping your computers usb drive to the sounds of Barry White Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 But again..you are basing that solely on what the Euro ens did last night. No, I'm basing that on the subtle trends that I've seen on the other models too. The GEFS are the most bullish with the MJO and is probably why it has the most weene looking prog in the 11-15 day. I never said I'm cancelling this whole thing...I'm simply stating some concern I have for the longevity of this. I'm not a fan of what I see, but lets see what today's runs bring. I still have hope that we could support a coastal system or at least some clippers and redevelopers at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 our next best shot at something might be early to middle part of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 our next best shot at something might be early to middle part of next week I think the period from the 10-12...give or take seems like it will offer a shot of some sort of coastal system perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 But again..you are basing that solely on what the Euro ens did last night. I also said that I would probably blend all three in some shape or form, because you can't base something solely off one piece of guidance unless you have strong evidence to support it. However, it's the best piece of medium range guidance, so it's important to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I think the period from the 10-12...give or take seems like it will offer a shot of some sort of coastal system perhaps. yeah i could see that too as the trough establishes itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 our next best shot at something might be early to middle part of next week So you are totally writing off some light snow Thursday nite/Fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 well the GFS is being pretty dang consistent with that disturbance on Thur, whether the model is "bad" or not that kind of consistency inside 72h is definitely a tell tell sign...so pending the EURO I think that ones getting to the point where it can be basically 100% written off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So you are totally writing off some light snow Thursday nite/Fri? pretty much..in terms of anything meaningful. i think the s coast could get scraped with some flurries or light snows and maybe there's some OES for a time thur night...but doesn't look like a big deal. there's some hints on some products of a subtle inverted trough hanging back toward E MA but it's not a strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So you are totally writing off some light snow Thursday nite/Fri? Honestly, it's not looking promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well the GFS absolutely obliterates the southern stream low early next week ..in the face of the northern stream trough over the Northeast and Maritimes. A northern stream meat grinder pattern. The southwest energy does attempt to kick out as it should with - EPO, but it gets shredded to bits. well the GFS is being pretty dang consistent with that disturbance on Thur, whether the model is "bad" or not that kind of consistency inside 72h is definitely a tell tell sign...so pending the EURO I think that ones getting to the point where it can be basically 100% written off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That is one of the uglier gfs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 tensions going to start shooting through the roof here soon if our last ditch "pattern change" fails. yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 At least through 168 hours, the two jets are about as "unphased" as they could possibly be. Shows how you can have somewhat negative NAO, + PNA, - EPO and yet produce absolutely nothing. That is one of the uglier gfs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 DT FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That is one of the uglier gfs runs. At least we get cold and dry instead of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well the 12zgfs brings back winter exactly two weeks from today with an impressive cold dump into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Inspiring 12z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 It just seems everyone is focused on cold. We're not going to have a cold well below normal pattern. Nothing ever showed that until the Euro weeklies last night. What we have all been harping on is a stormy pattern , ripe with snow threats which is exactly what we have starting late this week and beyond. A normal pattern or even slightly above with snow threats every few days is all anyone could possibly expect until we enter Spring on March 1 With a zonal flow? That doesn't sound good for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I will truly enjoy my 0.5" that will fall today as it may be the only snow i see in the next 10 days Worth repeating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Take heart people... the GFS stinks after 72 hours. LOL I'd be throwing it out fast if the 0Z Euro didn't also crush the early week low. Hope arrives after 1 PM...for at least a short time. Worth repeating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gefs agree with the op for sunday monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gefs agree with the op for sunday monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Lots of bridge jumpers in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The pattern is finally getting to some including me, We are running out of time for what i use winter for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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