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Assorted Amorphous Threats


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This looks familiar ...like the 17 other "threats" this season that have had 14,000 different model forecasts before they inevitably settled on the one that screws us the most.

You must be living in a different winter, i don't remember 7 decent threats this year, nevermind 17.

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That's a stretch.

This run barely works because of an impulse diving down from northern Canada on the backside of the trough departing the Northeast that helps lower heights ahead of the big closed low.

Barely works, but barely works is still good for much of SNE to pick up 6+ on this run. Even advisory snows in S NH. Solid warning snows south of the VT-NH/MA borders.

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This looks familiar ...like the 17 other "threats" this season that have had 14,000 different model forecasts before they inevitably settled on the one that screws us the most.

In all seriousness, this shows a little bit of promise. At last we have some teleconnection convergence here that heightens our chances to come away with something. It's telling that at least *a few more* of the solutions have delivered for New England.

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You must be living in a different winter, i don't remember 7 decent threats this year, nevermind 17.

lol hey I never said "decent" and I said "threats" with the quotes ;) There have been a few medium range plausible storms this winter with similar model chaos ...that obviously didn't pan out ...is all I'm saying. I don't like dealing with these storm opportunities have such run-to-run discontinuity.

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This winter has clearly gotten to him. SE MA jackpot again on this run. 8-12" for Bob.

SE MA is raining from 165-168h at the height of it...so they wouldn't jackpot...prob a NW RI jackpot this run. Not that any of these details means a thing at this time range...even the larger scope of the storm is very much in question.

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lol hey I never said "decent" and I said "threats" with the quotes ;) There have been a few medium range plausible storms this winter with similar model chaos ...that obviously didn't pan out ...is all I'm saying. I don't like dealing with these storm opportunities have such run-to-run discontinuity.

Well I don't take any threats outside of 100 hours very seriously. We've had 2 snowstorms on the models inside that time frame...Jan 12, which trended north and Jan 21 which trended south but clocked parts of SNE.

I don't think December had a single >4" threat inside of 100 hours.

I like the pattern setting up, but I'm not getting emotionally invested in this Feb 4-6 threat just like I didn't get invested in the Thursday night potential which only looked good at a 5-7 day lead time. I think there will be plenty of opportunities if the Feb 4-6 storm doesn't pan out.

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Barely works, but barely works is still good for much of SNE to pick up 6+ on this run. Even advisory snows in S NH. Solid warning snows south of the VT-NH/MA borders.

Barely works is not good enough for one run that shows notable discontinuity from previous runs and models. Gonna hang your hat on one impulse diving into the trough at hr120? You definitely do not want to start talking verbatim anything from individual runs at this stage

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Well I don't take any threats outside of 100 hours very seriously. We've had 2 snowstorms on the models inside that time frame...Jan 12, which trended north and Jan 21 which trended south but clocked parts of SNE.

I don't think December had a single >4" threat inside of 100 hours.

I like the pattern setting up, but I'm not getting emotionally invested in this Feb 4-6 threat just like I didn't get invested in the Thursday night potential which only looked good at a 5-7 day lead time. I think there will be plenty of opportunities if the Feb 4-6 storm doesn't pan out.

And I'm the idiot who split the uprights.

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Maybe the date should be changed, but the 2/2-3 thing may not be 100% dead yet. That might the last event that could do the northward trend...before the -NAO kicks in and erects a wall against such stuff with the 5/6th event.

I don't think Thursday's threat is dead either...it's still definitely close enough to where we need to watch and from what I'm reading on twitter the Euro has inched closer as well.

I was just asking so I don't post anything about Sunday/Monday in this thread if it's not being discussed here...I didn't see a thread though for that system so I assumed perhaps it's been discussed in here/

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I don't think Thursday's threat is dead either...it's still definitely close enough to where we need to watch and from what I'm reading on twitter the Euro has inched closer as well.

I was just asking so I don't post anything about Sunday/Monday in this thread if it's not being discussed here...I didn't see a thread though for that system so I assumed perhaps it's been discussed in here/

None of them are dead......no, that would be too easy.

They maintain a faint pulse for sole the purpose of tormenting us.....a lifeless entity can not flip you the byrd.

Each one will remain on the map just so that we have to keep discussing what will culminate in 2" of glop in the hills, with a "sloppy seconds" mangled flake or two on the cp.

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None of them are dead......no, that would be too easy.

They maintain a faint pulse for sole purpose of tormnting us.....a lifeless entity can not flip you the byrd.

Each one will remain on the map just so that we have to keep discussing what will culminate in 2" of glop in the hills,"sloppy senconds" flake or two on the cp.

The upcoming pattern at least does hold some potential and we're seeing a more active southern stream which is something that has been virtually non-existent. We'll see what happens I guess. 3'' is better than 0''.

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The upcoming pattern at least does hold some potential and we're seeing a more active southern stream which is something that has been virtually non-existent. We'll see what happens I guess. 3'' is better than 0''.

That's better.

I'll sleep well on the heels of a meltdown...enjoy the EURO as it portrays a splendid montage of misfit, inbred SWs, dumbelling around the main axis of "potential".

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Anything on the EURO?

my euro link kinda blows but at hr 72 it bascially shows the same position as 0z gfs of a weak LP east of delmarva headin east ward (which bombs to 976LP bout 1000 miles ESE of us lol) at hr 96

but as far as 5h depicitions on the euro link i'm not the guy to relay this info but looks like the euro is not great for us with cutting off the 5H low in the western plains thru and burying kansas nebraska and the front range thru sunday nite.

where seasonable ..i.e cold and dry with 850's fri nite -8 sat nite -11 and sun nite -11 only to warm monday (prolly very temporaily to 1-2 C 850)

at hr 168 the 5h low is still cut off in same general plains area and the plains of nebraska are looking at a historical snowstorm

anything past day 3 or 4 on euro i would toss thou

so i'm not sure well figure out 5h low till wednesday afternoon or nite

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This winter--and particularly this recent spat of inconsistent modeling with the storm always in the distance reminds me of (appropriately enough) "The Iceman Cometh": This summary of it on Wikipedia is uncannily like this board--substitute "winter storm" for the name "Hickey".

The Iceman Cometh is set in Harry Hope's decidedly downmarket Greenwich Village saloon and rooming house, in 1912. The patrons, who are all men except for three women who are prostitutes, are all dead-end alcoholics who spend every possible moment seeking oblivion in each others' company and trying to con or wheedle free drinks from Harry and the bartenders. They drift without purpose from day to day, coming fully to life only during the semi-annual visits of the salesman Theodore Hickman, known to them as Hickey. When Hickey finishes a tour of his business territory, which is apparently a wide expanse of the East Coast, he typically turns up at the saloon and starts the party. As the play opens, the regulars are expecting Hickey to turn up in time for Harry's birthday party. The first act introduces the various characters and shows them bickering amongst each other, showing just how drunk and delusional they are, all the while waiting for the arrival of Hickey

At least in this play, he does arrive. Let's hope the season doesn't end up being a meterological version of "Waiting for Godot".

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Is it true the gfs is the only model showing a storm for Sunday/Monday?

This reminds me of a question I actually asked my parents on the way to Radio City Music Hall one winter day in December of 1956: "is it true men and women f*ck to have babies?" Keep hope alive.

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This reminds me of a question I actually asked my parents on the way to Radio City Music Hall one winter day in December of 1956: "is it true men and women f*ck to have babies?" Keep hope alive.

:lmao:

I asked b/c I saw that on twitter and I'm on my phone and its harder to browse around for me to look myself.

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