dryslot Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Lingering weenie snows through Monday too. Euro op also yanked the PV into the GL region, so something might pop down the road. Actually, I like the look of that pv dropping SE, It could spawn cyclogenisis along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Driving out in snow on Friday, returning in snow on Sunday? Fun to see how this all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 nice Euro run.. Friday-Sunday looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Wow, polar express. That's a cold ending. While the depiction is on the not so trust worthy part of the model....the idea is also there on the GEM ensembles too. GEFS have it to a point, but don't nearly go as far south as the euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This is going to change so many times, its no real use obsessing over the verbatim soltuons on this threat. Its still a marginal threat. The one behind it looks a bit more realistic with the pattern changes. However, we still def have the 2/3 threat on the table...its just pretty precarious and model uncertainty is enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Snowy superbowl sunday on Euro for all of SNE. Doesn't get any better than that. Partying and a storm to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 And yes while it may be cold and dry for a few days IF that happened, the PV begins to orient itself in a manner to fire a s/w around the base...if you were to extrapolate it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 This is going to change so many times, its no real use obsessing over the verbatim soltuons on this threat. Its still a marginal threat. The one behind it looks a bit more realistic with the pattern changes. However, we still def have the 2/3 threat on the table...its just pretty precarious and model uncertainty is enormous. There will probably be another several varieties of solutions in the next 72 hours, but hopefully one of these deals pans out for someone. What a crazy pattern though. It's actually refreshing to see in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It's just about a done deal now for the Friday event that we're under 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 There will probably be another several varieties of solutions in the next 72 hours, but hopefully one of these deals pans out for someone. What a crazy pattern though. It's actually refreshing to see in a way. If you were to see this output in 24 hours, would you think we were in decent shape? Seems we are on the cusp of winter making another visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It's just about a done deal now for the Friday event that we're under 6 days jk... you were optimistic about this 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 jk... you were optimistic about this 2 days ago With the new pattern in place this one has the best shot at delivering region wide snow. I didn't like what the Euro did last nite, but today's run makes sense given the new pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 If you were to see this output in 24 hours, would you think we were in decent shape? Seems we are on the cusp of winter making another visit If that first low looked similar in 24 hrs, and the 12z guidance tomorrow including euro ensembles had a similar depiction...then it very well may be a threat. The problem though is that there are a lot of moving parts, and that second low may turn out to be the bigger story. Anytime you build a ridge out west and the flow becomes more north to south over the plains...you'll have models really struggling on timing and keying in on specific shortwaves. If I saw similar chaos tomorrow..then I would have to give it another day or so. My guess is that at least one of these may work out for someone in New England. Just how and when remains to be seen. It's not a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 With the new pattern in place this one has the best shot at delivering region wide snow. I didn't like what the Euro did last nite, but today's run makes sense given the new pattern The new pattern isn't in place yet for the Feb 3rd storm...that;s the whole reason the airmass is so marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Thanks Scott. That makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Anyone have the latest EURO map...link...and the GFS regarding next week event?? Thank you in advance...Craig @ Northeastweather.com,Augusta Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I like this weekend, always have. After that, not sure. Anyone keeping count of how many times the Euro wanted to drop the PV into the CONUS at day 10 this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I like this weekend, always have. After that, not sure. Anyone keeping count of how many times the Euro wanted to drop the PV into the CONUS at day 10 this winter? I can't recall too many times, but that's a pipe dream anyways...in la la land. If the ridge is aggressive enough, I could see a cold plunge at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Closer to the 00z ensemble mean. Yea, like I was saying....the 00z EC ens mean is likely has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 That's a beautiful run ..two snow events in a row. Yea, like I was saying....the 00z EC ens mean is likely has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I can't recall too many times, but that's a pipe dream anyways...in la la land. If the ridge is aggressive enough, I could see a cold plunge at some point. I can think of at least three times the Euro has pulled this one out of a hat ...which is three more times than it's actually verified. AO is squarely negative, NAO will be hanging around neutral ... sorta east based, ridging just needs to retrograde more over Greenland ... and the PNA is squarely positive ... finally some teleconnection convergence for the first time since October. Honestly, I think it looks great. I'm just wary after this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I can think of at least three times the Euro has pulled this one out of a hat ...which is three more times than it's actually verified. AO is squarely negative, NAO will be hanging around neutral ... sorta east based, ridging just needs to retrograde more over Greenland ... and the PNA is squarely positive ... finally some teleconnection convergence for the first time since October. Honestly, I think it looks great. I'm just wary after this winter so far. I agree..I think we all are. At least this time around we have agreement from a tropical forcing standpoint too. The one thing that may try to diminish the amplitude, is the pesky AK low not wanting to retrograde enough to the west and southwest. I think we need to make sure that doesn't hurt our chances going forward..I'm looking out for that. At the same time, I haven't seen the models back off all week..and have even looked better as we get closer, which is a good sign. Back in early January, you could already see that the so called pattern change did not have legs. This one just may...for a couple of weeks anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I can think of at least three times the Euro has pulled this one out of a hat ...which is three more times than it's actually verified. AO is squarely negative, NAO will be hanging around neutral ... sorta east based, ridging just needs to retrograde more over Greenland ... and the PNA is squarely positive ... finally some teleconnection convergence for the first time since October. Honestly, I think it looks great. I'm just wary after this winter so far. And I am weary of you Debbie Downer syndrome...jk Just one more week of this garbage and then we can enjoy February for a little bit. I miss your maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Not loving the lack of -AO or -NAO. 1/13/1964 was similar except for a Greenland block was present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I just looked at the euro run....what a weenie depiction! 2/8 dawns subzero in much of NE with deep snow cover. Bring this from the charts to reality please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I just looked at the euro run....what a weenie depiction! 2/8 dawns subzero in much of NE with deep snow cover. Bring this from the charts to reality please! I forsee a business trip in your future...please go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 And I am weary of you Debbie Downer syndrome...jk Just one more week of this garbage and then we can enjoy February for a little bit. I miss your maps as soon as I get a reason to make a snowfall map... Until then, I can't wait for spring!! Enough of this day 10 weenie fodder. Let's just get it straight: it's never going to snow more than 3" at a time for the rest of the winter, so we might as well get some sun and warmth and start spring early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I forsee a business trip in your future...please go away Govt travel is locked down for all but a few. Sorry...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 What's with Perturberation posting in all our threads and no one answering? Admittedly the posts are hard to understand what he is trying to get across.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 What's with Perturberation posting in all our threads and no one answering? Admittedly the posts are hard to understand what he is trying to get across.... I've never understood why mid atl folks post in our threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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