Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Posted this in the nyc forum, but here's the weenie image of the day. Looks like Ray hacked the Canadian ensembles. Some of these have 576+dm ridge cores into British Columbia with blocking over Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu...DE_12z/f312.gif Think about it, patriots win the superbowl and then it snows for about two straight weeks. What could be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Think about it, patriots win the superbowl and then it snows for about two straight weeks. What could be better? Elis coming, hide ya heart girl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Elis coming, hide ya heart girl. Oh no Steve, not the Giants....please God no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Oh no Steve, not the Giants....please God no. Giants Yankees Raiders Celtics Bruins BC Eagles PC Friars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 We shouldn't go OT on the big pattern change thread....there will be plenty of time to discuss the Patriots victory while we're shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 We shouldn't go OT on the big pattern change thread....there will be plenty of time to discuss the Patriots victory while we're shoveling. What pattern change, DT and Cantore both saying meh transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What pattern change, DT and Cantore both saying meh transient. If we get 10 days I'll be happy...meets expectations. 14 or 16 days super happy...wildly beyond the best expectations would be 15-20 days. If I had to pin it right now I'd bet on about 2 solid weeks of winter. That's not transient by this winters definition...that's an ice age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 We shouldn't go OT on the big pattern change thread....there will be plenty of time to discuss the Patriots victory while we're shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Posted this in the nyc forum, but here's the weenie image of the day. Looks like Ray hacked the Canadian ensembles. Some of these have 576+dm ridge cores into British Columbia with blocking over Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu...DE_12z/f312.gif CPC site says, ho-hum to PNA http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif do yourself a favor and don't look at the AO or NAO ensembles http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 CPC site says, ho-hum to PNA http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif do yourself a favor and don't look at the AO or NAO ensembles http://www.cpc.ncep...._index/ao.shtml Mitch, these indexes have been horrible all winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 We shouldn't go OT on the big pattern change thread....there will be plenty of time to discuss the Patriots victory while we're shoveling. I think a certain Eli Manning will say no to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Who is he talking about? "the scary thing there were Numerous folks folks posting here and on the web site and in other forums who were talking about the coming cold because of another well known but over valued private Meteorologist in New England ... still waiting for that cold" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Think about it, patriots win the superbowl and then it snows for about two straight weeks. What could be better? 2005 esc nudity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Mitch, these indexes have been horrible all winter season. He's doing his best to poo poo everything because it hasn't snowed there in 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 He's doing his best to poo poo everything because it hasn't snowed there in 2 years. and you're in denial if you think those indexes that look like cr@p haven't reflected snow chances this year in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 and you're in denial if you think those indexes that look like cr@p haven't reflected snow chances this year in the east riiggghhhtttt and those indexes look better going forward which is the point. hence better snow chances particularly with the gfs gefs canadian and euro showing a PNA ridge a neutral NAO will work just fine for our snow chances up here in SNE so what was ur point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 riiggghhhtttt and those indexes look better going forward which is the point. hence better snow chances particularly with the gfs gefs canadian and euro showing a PNA ridge a neutral NAO will work just fine for our snow chances up here in SNE so what was ur point? my point? it's called other model data PNA does not spike at all like the Canadian ensembles Earthlight posted; in fact they have the PNA coming back down AO is headed + in the lr on the CPC ensembles and the NAO, which is now neutral, heads positive again so if you missed the point that all of the indices are contrary to the snow chances for everyone in the east (and back to where they have been for most of DEC-JAN), I'm sorry remember, I didn't say they were right, but they are not as rosey as the Canadian and are something else to consider since the year has been so bad relatively speaking up and down the ec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 CPC site says, ho-hum to PNA http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif do yourself a favor and don't look at the AO or NAO ensembles http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Well, a ridge in the Western US on the ensembles in the long range doesn't necessarily mean the CPC charts are gonna show off the charts PNA forecasts. If you look at the GEFS 500mb height anomalies on ewall from the 00z run, you'll see where the signal is. There's a big + anomaly signal with a ridge axis near Boise beginning at the end of next week and continuing until the end of the run. So I wouldn't get too upset about the CPC plumes. Most of the guidance is still showing an anomalous feature in a good spot. Might not register as a +6 PNA but it'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 my point? it's called other model data PNA does not spike at all like the Canadian ensembles Earthlight posted; in fact they have the PNA coming back down AO is headed + in the lr on the CPC ensembles and the NAO, which is now neutral, heads positive again so if you missed the point that all of the indices are contrary to the snow chances for everyone in the east (and back to where they have been for most of DEC-JAN), I'm sorry remember, I didn't say they were right, but they are not as rosey as the Canadian and are something else to consider since the year has been so bad relatively speaking up and down the ec point? or pointless? http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html gluck with ur snow in bmi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Well, a ridge in the Western US on the ensembles in the long range doesn't necessarily mean the CPC charts are gonna show off the charts PNA forecasts. If you look at the GEFS 500mb height anomalies on ewall from the 00z run, you'll see where the signal is. There's a big + anomaly signal with a ridge axis near Boise beginning at the end of next week and continuing until the end of the run. So I wouldn't get too upset about the CPC plumes. Most of the guidance is still showing an anomalous feature in a good spot. Might not register as a +6 PNA but it'll do. I certainly hope the Canadian is right someone posted in the main thread they seem to do better than the GEFS....I hope so but in a year like this it's hard not to take pause until everything is on board for a killer pattern the Canadian advertises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 point? or pointless? http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html gluck with ur snow in bmi see my post above and why so nasty??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I certainly hope the Canadian is right someone posted in the main thread they seem to do better than the GEFS....I hope so but in a year like this it's hard not to take pause until everything is on board for a killoer pattern the Canadian advertises The Euro ensembles were pretty bullish this afternoon too. They even tried to nudge some ridging towards eastern Greenland towards the end. But I definitely think the idea should be "approach with caution". Any time you're dealing with such a big change the guidance will struggle...it's par for the course. For example the first "storm" next weekend looks like it might have some trouble as the initial ridge that goes up out west collapses east over the Central US. Check out how a huge H5 trough gets squashed into nothing by 180 hrs. That's just an example of something the models will struggle with. Re: the Canadian ensembles...they have been very good this year. This is the first time this winter I've seen them look anything remotely close to favorable..so take that for what it's worth. All of this said we're definitely taking steps in the right direction. Now we have to hope this all gets set into motion and doesn't remain in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 not to forget the tropical forcing forecast (MJO) looks the the best it has all winter by farrrrr I agree that the MJO progression beyond phase 7 is becoming more and more likely, too. CT BLIZZ has the bus fired up ....leaving from tolland making stops in wilmington worcester hubbardson shelbourne west chesterfield lenox,ma burlington woburn concord billerica boston milton arlington greenfield springfield and burbs wakefield taunton mossup brooklyn ct storrs, ct litchfield, ct norwalk, greenich, ct ct cumberland, ri plymouth, ma the capecodwx's house manchesta,nh and dorchesta weenies in hand if your not gonna chuck em .....you better duck ummmm k. it is the last chance for all warmista's and non believers to repent or the wrath of ye cold and snow shall bury thou homestead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 all the weenies asleep dreaming of a pattern change. Looks like we finally might get it for a week or three. Off to work. Yeah college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro ensembles still look great in the LR...that ridge is just monstrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro ensembles still look great in the LR...that ridge is just monstrous. Yeah continued pants tent. Nice to see at 5:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 The Euro ensembles has lower pressures hanging back east of us like the whole time in the LR...def a lot of weenie solutions in there most likely. Miller B fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The Euro ensembles has lower pressures hanging back east of us like the whole time in the LR...def a lot of weenie solutions in there most likely. Miller B fun. They also trended higher with the heights out west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Not to ride the MJO all the time, but a nice steady progression on the charts. This may be the wave the could "break" the back of this Nina and start the drive to El Nino. I feel like we are already seeing the atmosphere display some signs of this...and not necessarily based on this pattern coming up. I also think the high altitude tropospheric temps in the tropical regions may be cooling due to some of the stratosphere warming over the North Pole. This will help sustain a wave as it moves east. Colder temps aloft mean the ability to sustain convection. Recall last May when we had a big warming..we had a big time MJO wave move east, partly due to high instability over the tropics, thanks to colder temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Not to ride the MJO all the time, but a nice steady progression on the charts. This may be the wave the could "break" the back of this Nina and start the drive to El Nino. I feel like we are already seeing the atmosphere display some signs of this...and not necessarily based on this pattern coming up. I also think the high altitude tropospheric temps in the tropical regions may be cooling due to some of the stratosphere warming over the North Pole. This will help sustain a wave as it moves east. Colder temps aloft mean the ability to sustain convection. Recall last May when we had a big warming..we had a big time MJO wave move east, partly due to high instability over the tropics, thanks to colder temps aloft. Mild winter in the northern tier next winter due to El Nino? Wouldn't that be a slap in the face? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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