ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 I was thinking about this today too lol The bulk of last season's SF came in a 6-week period last year. Not saying we repeat, but get a sweet period with a couple biggies, some good teleconnections, and some luck...then who knows. Definitely something to look forward to. At least we're not looking at a pattern of SWFE, hoping to get an inch of snow on the front end before the switch to 55F rain the next day. We could get a good period, but it could also skunk us too...which is the hard part about LR forecasting when talking snow. SWFEs can be good for us...look at '07-'08...all winter long and we had some pretty good events, '08-'09 too....and then you can get several of them that stink like tonight where you get a bit of snow and then flip. The amped up ridging out west will definitely give us chances, I have no doubt about that...but whether they materialize into snow events is another story, but I'm sure we'll see plenty of model threats in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The WPO loading pattern there shows well where our coldest air would be coming from...from Hudson Bay on eastward....which was what the Euro ensembles do...they bring it over the huge ridge out west and down through Hudson Bay and into Quebec. The central plains of Canada would probably be mild...though the eastern edge might be cold...esp if the EPO/.WPO are battling eachother there. I'm a little confused on this...why would the coldest air be coming from Hudson Bay on eastward? All the cold seems to be bottled up near Siberia or that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Still looks pretty good in the longer range. The end of the ensembles start to lose some of the +PNA ampltidude so we'll have to see if that continues, or does it try to reload. Otherwise, looks like first chance of some sort of rain or snow comes up near 2/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Still looks pretty good in the longer range. The end of the ensembles start to lose some of the +PNA ampltidude so we'll have to see if that continues, or does it try to reload. Otherwise, looks like first chance of some sort of rain or snow comes up near 2/4. That's my wife's and mine16 year anniversary. 1996. I was distracted at times....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 That's my wife's and mine16 year anniversary. 1996. I was distracted at times....lol. LOL, I bet. Hopefully we can get some sort of a snowstorm then. Model have both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Looks like the Euro is pegging Feb 2/3 ish for our first snowstorm .. Nice pattern once past next weeks 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Been awhile since we had a rockin February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Been awhile since we had a rockin February Too early to think it will rock. At elast we'll have some shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 lol at the 6z gfs for Friday. Almost 3" of qpf...A lot of it is rain...but still if 20% was snow I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 6z gfs was joykill for feb 2/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 So my wife and I are talking over breakfast and coffee....she rushing around to get out of the house and me having a later start drinking coffee. I tell her how glad I am that it's Friday and there are no games this weekend and no weather to rob me of sleep as I am tired. I remind her of next weekend being our anniversary dinner and the superbowl. I also throw in..."and it looks like we're going into a nice wintry period for a spell of maybe weeks and she..barely audibly answers....or a day. I had to lol because that's been true this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 6z gfs was joykill for feb 2/3 LOL that's a wet dream run... stalled out hour after hour of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 6z gfs was joykill for feb 2/3 That certainly is an option. Hope not, but sometimes these transition storms, suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=AK&prodtype=public Some of the February totals for SNE were big in the years cited and no dead ratters. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Last Feb to rock was 2003. Just one of the most epic months I can remember. From 2/6 through 3/4. ~50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 That Feb 2/3 storm looks very similar to the set-up of this current system except we will be hoping more for a secondary to take charge SE of New England. Some sort of low in the southern Great Lakes region with secondary development forming near the coast. 00z ECM looks interesting leading into that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 That certainly is an option. Hope not, but sometimes these transition storms, suck. I just want a big coastal storm at this point... whens the last time we had a strong coastal? Probably that frontal storm with that hung back vortmax in December.. if its snow, cool.. if its rain, cool... of its a freaking KU then this winter will be epic in my book... I'd laugh my seasonal snowfall came from 2 storms I love the look of this setup, ala that other mini coastal last week. Great looking quebecian blocking. Love that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Last Feb to rock was 2003. Just one of the most epic months I can remember. From 2/6 through 3/4. ~50". 2005 was pretty nice but compared to January that year no one remembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa....prodtype=public Some of the February totals for SNE were big in the years cited and no dead ratters. Keep hope alive. I was looking back at AK Jan's and our subsequent Feb's, pretty good correlation, good pick up Jerry. As you said no dead ratters and some real biggies. i like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 2005 was pretty nice but compared to January that year no one remembers. You remember how crappy is was up until that point, in Feb '03? You and I got screwed right through January while Ray and Will got hit hard. Finally, the tables turned on 2/6 with that epic band of S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Last Feb to rock was 2003. Just one of the most epic months I can remember. From 2/6 through 3/4. ~50". What was the last big March for anyone in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 You remember how crappy is was up until that point, in Feb '03? You and I got screwed right through January while Ray and Will got hit hard. Finally, the tables turned on 2/6 with that epic band of S+. I remember the forecast of 1-3 while the DC weenies were celebrating and sometimes jabbing at us. My wife calls stuck in Newton in one of the bands and tells me forecasters are wrong. 11 inches later...dc laughed no more...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 What was the last big March for anyone in SNE? 2005 was pretty decent, 2007 was the best winter month that year for snow in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 What was the last big March for anyone in SNE? March 2005 was good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I remember the forecast of 1-3 while the DC weenies were celebrating and sometimes jabbing at us. My wife calls stuck in Newton in one of the bands and tells me forecasters are wrong. 11 inches later...dc laughed no more...lol. I drove home in that storm. Some of the best snow growth I've ever seen to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I remember the forecast of 1-3 while the DC weenies were celebrating and sometimes jabbing at us. My wife calls stuck in Newton in one of the bands and tells me forecasters are wrong. 11 inches later...dc laughed no more...lol. the Feb 17th PD storm was just epic, a fantastic storm for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 the Feb 17th PD storm was just epic, a fantastic storm for all What the hell? We had 560 dm heights and it snowed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 the Feb 17th PD storm was just epic, a fantastic storm for all epic 28 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 What the hell? We had 560 dm heights and it snowed? ??? PD2 was a very cold storm. I was in Philly...snowing and in the teens, even started single digits IIRC. Not a strong storm 5SD anomalous flow off the Atlantic and huge overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 ??? PD2 was a very cold storm. I was in Philly...snowing and in the teens, even started single digits IIRC. Not a strong storm 5SD anomalous flow off the Atlantic and huge overrunning. Yeah I recall it being quite cold. I guess I'm just not understanding the difference between 500 mb heights and 1000-500 mb thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.