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First half of February...another pattern shift?


ORH_wxman

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Posted this in the nyc forum, but here's the weenie image of the day. Looks like Ray hacked the Canadian ensembles. Some of these have 576+dm ridge cores into British Columbia with blocking over Greenland.

http://www.meteo.psu...DE_12z/f312.gif

Think about it, patriots win the superbowl and then it snows for about two straight weeks. What could be better?

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What pattern change, DT and Cantore both saying meh transient.

If we get 10 days I'll be happy...meets expectations. 14 or 16 days super happy...wildly beyond the best expectations would be 15-20 days.

If I had to pin it right now I'd bet on about 2 solid weeks of winter. That's not transient by this winters definition...that's an ice age.

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Posted this in the nyc forum, but here's the weenie image of the day. Looks like Ray hacked the Canadian ensembles. Some of these have 576+dm ridge cores into British Columbia with blocking over Greenland.

http://www.meteo.psu...DE_12z/f312.gif

CPC site says, ho-hum to PNA

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif

do yourself a favor and don't look at the AO or NAO ensembles

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

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and you're in denial if you think those indexes that look like cr@p haven't reflected snow chances this year in the east :lmao:

riiggghhhtttt and those indexes look better going forward which is the point. hence better snow chances particularly with the gfs gefs canadian and euro showing a PNA ridge

a neutral NAO will work just fine for our snow chances up here in SNE

so what was ur point?

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riiggghhhtttt and those indexes look better going forward which is the point. hence better snow chances particularly with the gfs gefs canadian and euro showing a PNA ridge

a neutral NAO will work just fine for our snow chances up here in SNE

so what was ur point?

my point? :yikes:

it's called other model data

PNA does not spike at all like the Canadian ensembles Earthlight posted; in fact they have the PNA coming back down

AO is headed + in the lr on the CPC ensembles and the NAO, which is now neutral, heads positive again

so if you missed the point that all of the indices are contrary to the snow chances for everyone in the east (and back to where they have been for most of DEC-JAN), I'm sorry

remember, I didn't say they were right, but they are not as rosey as the Canadian and are something else to consider since the year has been so bad relatively speaking up and down the ec

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CPC site says, ho-hum to PNA

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif

do yourself a favor and don't look at the AO or NAO ensembles

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Well, a ridge in the Western US on the ensembles in the long range doesn't necessarily mean the CPC charts are gonna show off the charts PNA forecasts.

If you look at the GEFS 500mb height anomalies on ewall from the 00z run, you'll see where the signal is. There's a big + anomaly signal with a ridge axis near Boise beginning at the end of next week and continuing until the end of the run.

So I wouldn't get too upset about the CPC plumes. Most of the guidance is still showing an anomalous feature in a good spot. Might not register as a +6 PNA but it'll do.

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my point? :yikes:

it's called other model data

PNA does not spike at all like the Canadian ensembles Earthlight posted; in fact they have the PNA coming back down

AO is headed + in the lr on the CPC ensembles and the NAO, which is now neutral, heads positive again

so if you missed the point that all of the indices are contrary to the snow chances for everyone in the east (and back to where they have been for most of DEC-JAN), I'm sorry

remember, I didn't say they were right, but they are not as rosey as the Canadian and are something else to consider since the year has been so bad relatively speaking up and down the ec

point? or pointless?

http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html

gluck with ur snow in bmi

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Well, a ridge in the Western US on the ensembles in the long range doesn't necessarily mean the CPC charts are gonna show off the charts PNA forecasts.

If you look at the GEFS 500mb height anomalies on ewall from the 00z run, you'll see where the signal is. There's a big + anomaly signal with a ridge axis near Boise beginning at the end of next week and continuing until the end of the run.

So I wouldn't get too upset about the CPC plumes. Most of the guidance is still showing an anomalous feature in a good spot. Might not register as a +6 PNA but it'll do.

I certainly hope the Canadian is right

someone posted in the main thread they seem to do better than the GEFS....I hope so

but in a year like this it's hard not to take pause until everything is on board for a killer pattern the Canadian advertises

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I certainly hope the Canadian is right

someone posted in the main thread they seem to do better than the GEFS....I hope so

but in a year like this it's hard not to take pause until everything is on board for a killoer pattern the Canadian advertises

The Euro ensembles were pretty bullish this afternoon too. They even tried to nudge some ridging towards eastern Greenland towards the end.

But I definitely think the idea should be "approach with caution". Any time you're dealing with such a big change the guidance will struggle...it's par for the course.

For example the first "storm" next weekend looks like it might have some trouble as the initial ridge that goes up out west collapses east over the Central US. Check out how a huge H5 trough gets squashed into nothing by 180 hrs. That's just an example of something the models will struggle with.

Re: the Canadian ensembles...they have been very good this year. This is the first time this winter I've seen them look anything remotely close to favorable..so take that for what it's worth.

All of this said we're definitely taking steps in the right direction. Now we have to hope this all gets set into motion and doesn't remain in model land.

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not to forget the tropical forcing forecast (MJO) looks the the best it has all winter by farrrrr

I agree that the MJO progression beyond phase 7 is becoming more and more likely, too.

CT BLIZZ has the bus fired up ....leaving from tolland making stops in wilmington worcester hubbardson shelbourne west chesterfield lenox,ma burlington woburn concord billerica boston milton arlington greenfield springfield and burbs wakefield taunton mossup brooklyn ct storrs, ct litchfield, ct norwalk, greenich, ct ct cumberland, ri plymouth, ma the capecodwx's house manchesta,nh and dorchesta weenies in hand

if your not gonna chuck em .....you better duck ummmm k.

it is the last chance for all warmista's and non believers to repent or the wrath of ye cold and snow shall bury thou homestead

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Not to ride the MJO all the time, but a nice steady progression on the charts. This may be the wave the could "break" the back of this Nina and start the drive to El Nino. I feel like we are already seeing the atmosphere display some signs of this...and not necessarily based on this pattern coming up. I also think the high altitude tropospheric temps in the tropical regions may be cooling due to some of the stratosphere warming over the North Pole. This will help sustain a wave as it moves east. Colder temps aloft mean the ability to sustain convection. Recall last May when we had a big warming..we had a big time MJO wave move east, partly due to high instability over the tropics, thanks to colder temps aloft.

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Not to ride the MJO all the time, but a nice steady progression on the charts. This may be the wave the could "break" the back of this Nina and start the drive to El Nino. I feel like we are already seeing the atmosphere display some signs of this...and not necessarily based on this pattern coming up. I also think the high altitude tropospheric temps in the tropical regions may be cooling due to some of the stratosphere warming over the North Pole. This will help sustain a wave as it moves east. Colder temps aloft mean the ability to sustain convection. Recall last May when we had a big warming..we had a big time MJO wave move east, partly due to high instability over the tropics, thanks to colder temps aloft.

Mild winter in the northern tier next winter due to El Nino? Wouldn't that be a slap in the face? lol

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