MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Gyx pretty bullish for here with 3-5", I am thinking more in line with 2-4" and would be happy if we see that They offered me 2-4", which is what I was expecting. I think you'll get a solid inch above my total. East is best in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looking at the sim radar on the NAM (a guilty pleasure of mine), I get the feeling instead of RI, E MA, and SE NH benefitting from being further E, it looks like when the low starts to crank as it reaches the Gulf of Maine that the precip will not "move" east so much as "jump" east. An idea to watch for (read: not be too surprised by) if radar echoes make it look like the stuff overhead is being eaten right up by the stuff offshore late Thursday night/early AM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looking at the sim radar on the NAM (a guilty pleasure of mine), I get the feeling instead of RI, E MA, and SE NH benefitting from being further E, it looks like when the low starts to crank as it reaches the Gulf of Maine that the precip will not "move" east so much as "jump" east. An idea to watch for (read: not be too surprised by) if radar echoes make it look like the stuff overhead is being eaten right up by the stuff offshore late Thursday night/early AM Friday. I see that but man it is so close from blowing up over us! still time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I see that but man it is so close from blowing up over us! still time! I'm not sure I think it's close to blowing up over us. Not for any substantial length of time, anyhow. This feature has been consistent on several runs now and the total QPF forecasts seem reasonably lined up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 They offered me 2-4", which is what I was expecting. I think you'll get a solid inch above my total. East is best in this one. 12z Euro was not overly impressed. Looks like a 1-3" type deal for many in E MA/NH/W ME. At least there could be some fluff factor to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Here's the SREFs...also fwiw (nothing) by the end of the run (72hr) the srefs have decent 1" probs for Saturday and very light ~5% probs for 4" for parts of the area. That's not a bad signal for day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 They offered me 2-4", which is what I was expecting. I think you'll get a solid inch above my total. East is best in this one. I think 3" is where it will end up, The best qpf looks to be from AUG east, I am just on the fringe, Hope i am wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Here's the SREFs...also fwiw (nothing) by the end of the run (72hr) the srefs have decent 1" probs for Saturday and very light ~5% probs for 4" for parts of the area. That's not a bad signal for day 3. That SREF prob map is what i was talking about, It shows the 4+ just to the east of here, Euro was not so bullish on qpf and Nam is usaully overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That SREF prob map is what i was talking about, It shows the 4+ just to the east of here, Euro was not so bullish on qpf and Nam is usaully overdone Yeah a few frames later it has decent 4" probs for east of your area. 9z was better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah a few frames later it has decent 4" probs for east of your area. 9z was better though. Its been pretty consistant with the mid coast and downeast maine seeing the most qpf from this one, Just develops a little to late back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 1-3" in the point and click. I won't be up for it, but will be nice to wake up to fresh snow cover since my last 2" melted away last night. This should have staying power with a cold day Friday and more snow Saturday. Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Did ORH snow all melt last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Did ORH snow all melt last night? Will still has 2" left at 900' feet, but yes at lower elevations the majority of it is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Surprised to see BOX putting 2-4" in both my ZFP and P/C. WTIC in Hartford was calling for a dusting-2" in CT. 20.9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Will still has 2" left at 900' feet, but yes at lower elevations the majority of it is gone. Had meetings in Amherst and Northampton. Bare ground for the most part. Nice to be back to winter at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Surprised to see BOX putting 2-4" in both my ZFP and P/C. WTIC in Hartford was calling for a dusting-2" in CT. 20.9/5 Super Mega Intergalactic Torch Fail. We've got such a perfect base to build on. We were just outside grooming the toboggan runs. Very fast, helmet now required. Tonight: Clear, with a low around 2. West wind between 10 and 13 mph becoming calm. Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as -2. Southeast wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 7pm and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. South wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 23. West wind between 10 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday: Snow likely, mainly before 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29. Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Surprised to see BOX putting 2-4" in both my ZFP and P/C. WTIC in Hartford was calling for a dusting-2" in CT. 20.9/5 LOL..the worst rip and readers in SNE you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Super Mega Intergalactic Torch Fail. We've got such a perfect base to build on. We were just outside grooming the toboggan runs. Very fast, helmet now required. Definitely not a torch, but that forecast puts you at about -1.5 to almost dead on normal for the four day stretch. With the way this winter has gone even a normal day feels brutally cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Definitely not a torch, but that forecast puts you at about -1.5 to almost dead on normal for the four day stretch. With the way this winter has gone even a normal day feels brutally cold. Meh, I like the cold so it feels good. If you work outside everyday you get used to working under a wide array of conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 LOL..the worst rip and readers in SNE you mean? I thought you had said (maybe Ryan did?) that Joe Fury was pretty good. By the way--they also said that Dr. Mel had died. When I was young, I would always look forward to his 'weatherwise' piece each week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I thought you had said (maybe Ryan did?) that Joe Fury was pretty good. Joe is pretty decent By the way--they also said that Dr. Mel had died. When I was young, I would always look forward to his 'weatherwise' piece each week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Had meetings in Amherst and Northampton. Bare ground for the most part. Nice to be back to winter at the Pit. How much do you have there? I've got about 5-6" of concrete OTG here, but some exposed south facing slopes have less. We lost a good 3" last night with the torch and southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I like the boost of lift still advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like a C-1" in SW CT with a widespread 1"-3" in the rest of the state. Could see a 2"-4" swath from GC over towards the ORH hills...looks like Wachusett will do pretty good (maybe 3"-4"?) and then the other jackpot of 4"-6" on the midcoast of Maine slightly away from the water. Temps at 850mb and 700mb look good and cold for some good ratios away from the water in Maine, all of NNE and even into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I like the boost of lift still advertised. 2-4 lollis to 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 2-4 lollis to 5? I couldn't go that far right now..lol, but some 3" amounts are on the table. Maybe someone gets a little more in a weenie band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 LOL, what a weenie Matt Noyes is. He's more bullish then Kev. :weenie: He had Boston at around 4"...and mentioned "I could see it being an inch higher...maybe 5" :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Everyones focused on sat when there's this nice event to go through tomorrow. 's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In order to get 4-5", I think you would want more of an OES contribution combined with developing overrunning..and then like 2-3 hrs of mod-hvy snow. That seems tough to do right now, but 3+ for someone isn't unrealistic..esp with good ratios. The 850-500 vv maps do try and show an extended period of snow, so something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 In order to get 4-5", I think you would want more of an OES contribution combined with developing overrunning..and then like 2-3 hrs of mod-hvy snow. That seems tough to do right now, but 3+ for someone isn't unrealistic..esp with good ratios. The 850-500 vv maps do try and show an extended period of snow, so something to watch. if boston gets over 5" ill go on a dinner date in lynn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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