Zeus Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 2007-08. Let's hope the Pike stays ok. Sorry boys...all for one and every man for himself. Women too. We're talking snow here...no touchy feely stuff...I want it! I'm with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i plan to win several of them. Would be nice to win one while the "northerners" wiff cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Would be nice to win one while the "northerners" wiff cirrus clouds. Like 2010, Not very nice Mod Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The ensembles do want to do something in the Atlantic regarding the NAO. It has a fleeting ridge day 11 and 12, and then tries to raise heights again across the area from the eastern US into Greenland. At the same time, there is troughing modeled over the east, but pretty good PAC flow moving in and heights rising as well. The mass fields still show high pressure to the north, so it's hinting at a gradient type deal, but storm track is virtually overhead. I think this pattern will have no problem with storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i would take this and run some snow is better then none... Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: Rain and snow showers, becoming all rain after noon. High near 41. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night: A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The ensembles do want to do something in the Atlantic regarding the NAO. It has a fleeting ridge day 11 and 12, and then tries to raise heights again across the area from the eastern US into Greenland. At the same time, there is troughing modeled over the east, but pretty good PAC flow moving in and heights rising as well. The mass fields still show high pressure to the north, so it's hinting at a gradient type deal, but storm track is virtually overhead. I think this pattern will have no problem with storminess. early signal for nao blocking. it will save us from the retrogression disastuh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The ensembles do want to do something in the Atlantic regarding the NAO. It has a fleeting ridge day 11 and 12, and then tries to raise heights again across the area from the eastern US into Greenland. At the same time, there is troughing modeled over the east, but pretty good PAC flow moving in and heights rising as well. The mass fields still show high pressure to the north, so it's hinting at a gradient type deal, but storm track is virtually overhead. I think this pattern will have no problem with storminess. I'm getting excited. The reason is that I think at the very least we'll have several chances and it will likely be cold. Can't ask for much more. Big flip en route! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 of the entire 12z GEFs members, every one is at or below 0SD on the Arctic Oscillation nearing Jan 21, some down around -5SD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 15z SREF's like CNE the most fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 early signal for nao blocking. it will save us from the retrogression disastuh I'm getting excited. The reason is that I think at the very least we'll have several chances and it will likely be cold. Can't ask for much more. Big flip en route! It could be exciting, but it may get very dicey towards the end. I'd feel better in NNE, but we'll just have to see where the cards fall. Just keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Someone between here and se Quebec is going to cash in with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Someone between here and se Quebec is going to cash in with this pattern. congrats dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 congrats Jeff and Eric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Like 2010, Not very nice Mod Bob Right. Four KUs and we were 0-for-3 then some 4:1 mashed potatoes on #4. IIRC, nearly all of SNE was quite a bit farther above their average in 2010-11 than was NNE. Also that the pre-Halloween dump gave many folks in SNE/CNE 3-6X the snow that fell in Maine. Our chains well and truly yanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The 12z suite is interesting. I'm still quite hesitant to call for significant snow here even though most guidance has it...the margin for error is pretty small but the biggest positive is the antecedent air mass has been trending colder and colder as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The 12z suite is interesting. I'm still quite hesitant to call for significant snow here even though most guidance has it...the margin for error is pretty small but the biggest positive is the antecedent air mass has been trending colder and colder as we get closer. Slumber party at your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The 12z suite is interesting. I'm still quite hesitant to call for significant snow here even though most guidance has it...the margin for error is pretty small but the biggest positive is the antecedent air mass has been trending colder and colder as we get closer. I think 00z probably will have a say to see if we wiggle back north like the euro had it. Either way..it looked snow and icy for you..even if you end as drizzle or something, but I wouldn't want a shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Right. Four KUs and we were 0-for-3 then some 4:1 mashed potatoes on #4. IIRC, nearly all of SNE was quite a bit farther above their average in 2010-11 than was NNE. Also that the pre-Halloween dump gave many folks in SNE/CNE 3-6X the snow that fell in Maine. Our chains well and truly yanked. We finished here about 20% below avg with the mega block from hell that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Forgot to add that 925mb 0C line got to about ORH at 18z, so could be some decent IP thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I think 00z probably will have a say to see if we wiggle back north like the euro had it. Either way..it looked snow and icy for you..even if you end as drizzle or something, but I wouldn't want a shift north. The Euro has been keying in on the CAD at the sfc for a few runs now regardless of mid-level temps. Even with 12z nudging the 0C line north of me eventually by a few miles, it never got the sfc above freezing in the hills. It could def transition to an icing event if the mid-levels warm on subsequent runs but the track remains over the Cape or further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Forgot to add that 925mb 0C line got to about ORH at 18z, so could be some decent IP thrown in. Wherever it ends up i think a lot will see IP with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The Euro has been keying in on the CAD at the sfc for a few runs now regardless of mid-level temps. Even with 12z nudging the 0C line north of me eventually by a few miles, it never got the sfc above freezing in the hills. It could def transition to an icing event if the mid-levels warm on subsequent runs but the track remains over the Cape or further SE. Yeah that's what I mean. Unless it comes closer, it has a good CAD signature for you guys from ne flow up through 925mb. At this point, unless it flies north, it's more of a mid level problem regarding temp and ptype based on that area near 850mb or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wherever it ends up i think a lot will see IP with this storm I do not think a lot of people will see IP as the predominate ptype...the zone for that is fairly narrow...the 850 0C line is close to the warmest layer...but not quite...maybe like a 20 mile offset zone. So there will be a narrow zone of IP, but I doubt you are going to see massive areas seeing a sleet storm ala Vday 2007 or something. Its mostly going to be rain or snow....and if it trend warmer in the MLs...probably a wider zone of icing in the interior than IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The Euro has been keying in on the CAD at the sfc for a few runs now regardless of mid-level temps. Even with 12z nudging the 0C line north of me eventually by a few miles, it never got the sfc above freezing in the hills. It could def transition to an icing event if the mid-levels warm on subsequent runs but the track remains over the Cape or further SE. yeah as long as we don't trend back to the vortmax being on roids and running too far NW...i think you stand a good chc at your first real wintry event in a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If we only had a little snowcover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah that's what I mean. Unless it comes closer, it has a good CAD signature for you guys from ne flow up through 925mb. At this point, unless it flies north, it's more of a mid level problem regarding temp and ptype based on that area near 850mb or so. this is the kind of deal where you could take the snowcover/temp arguement from last night and apply it. if there was a good snowcover, i think it would increase your confidence that the interior is mostly/all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dendrite has done well a few times.... but the so called GC has mainly been screwed this winter also. yeah Pete got a coating and 2K got a little.... but ask MPM, etc. and the only places to have any decent events were north of the MA/NH line. This one looks to get GC in on it...but beware it could slip north. GC had 30-36" on October, dude....so they missed out on a Tday swfe...big deal lol Pete has seen slightly more snow on the season than Dendrite has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I do not think a lot of people will see IP as the predominate ptype...the zone for that is fairly narrow...the 850 0C line is close to the warmest layer...but not quite...maybe like a 20 mile offset zone. So there will be a narrow zone of IP, but I doubt you are going to see massive areas seeing a sleet storm ala Vday 2007 or something. Its mostly going to be rain or snow....and if it trend warmer in the MLs...probably a wider zone of icing in the interior than IP Right, Snow/sleet, But not just all sleet, That zone could shrink if the mid levels keep trending cold, Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I do not think a lot of people will see IP as the predominate ptype...the zone for that is fairly narrow...the 850 0C line is close to the warmest layer...but not quite...maybe like a 20 mile offset zone. So there will be a narrow zone of IP, but I doubt you are going to see massive areas seeing a sleet storm ala Vday 2007 or something. Its mostly going to be rain or snow....and if it trend warmer in the MLs...probably a wider zone of icing in the interior than IP I could see a high thickness snow for many on the euro. Yeah there might be an isothermal layer, but lift, and CAA or CAD from high pressure to the north may help ensure that. It's tough to get a lot of ice with the H5 low going underneath you. Kind of an old timer rule, if you know what I mean. If it's more north than that's different..just saying as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 this is the kind of deal where you could take the snowcover/temp arguement from last night and apply it. if there was a good snowcover, i think it would increase your confidence that the interior is mostly/all frozen. Thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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