Yorkpa Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We will all be shut out... 6z GFS horrible for Wednesday into Thursday storm. Then cold and boring until the super long range, and we all know the long range storms never come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 6Z NAM now showing the anafrontal snows the GFS has been advertising to one extent or another 1" maybe? Not great at reading the soundings but wouldn't they suggest more of a sleet and/or isolated freezing rain scenario? Edit: Looked at the soundings for KIAD so would think farther north in our neck of the woods may have a colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It sure is difficult to have any thoughts at all, good or bad, when models swing so much in such a short time so close to events. The GFS is about 300 miles different with low pressure centers for tomorrow in just 24 hours of runs and completely loses huge system that was within 6 days. I don't know what the rest of the winter has in store, but if it's what we've had so far, it can't be spring fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It sure is difficult to have any thoughts at all, good or bad, when models swing so much in such a short time so close to events. The GFS is about 300 miles different with low pressure centers for tomorrow in just 24 hours of runs and completely loses huge system that was within 6 days. I don't know what the rest of the winter has in store, but if it's what we've had so far, it can't be spring fast enough. It certainly has been interesting with this current cutoff and the swings that the models have had on it. While the models have been coming in with a colder look the last day or so I really still haven't changed my opinion on this system being just a cold rain. It is looking very interesting now for farther north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 New 00z GFS has just initialized. Can we make this event number 2 this week Wednesday? Yes, please! dear 0z NAM, I work from home on Wednesdays, and I'm listening. sincerely, Trixie I hope you get your wish The thing that has had and continues to have my attention over the next week or so is the weak 500mb high anomaly that moves from western Canada toward the Hudson Bay this weekend. While this isn't your conventional block (usually a retrograding -NAO anomaly to the Hudson Bay), it will arrive to a similar point to the more conventional styled anomalies. It is at least a mild form of a teleconnection that at least gives the next week a fighting chance for something to happen. Keep talking, I'm listening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The thing that has had and continues to have my attention over the next week or so is the weak 500mb high anomaly that moves from western Canada toward the Hudson Bay this weekend. While this isn't your conventional block (usually a retrograding -NAO anomaly to the Hudson Bay), it will arrive to a similar point to the more conventional styled anomalies. It is at least a mild form of a teleconnection that at least gives the next week a fighting chance for something to happen. You mentioned that a few days ago and I have been watching the evolution of that for a while now. It is neat to watch and see where it will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 A little wave tries to develop on the cold front early Friday on the NAM. Maybe something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm reminded of what Wes said about a week ago - that once we get past this midweek system, we'll begin to see a lot more model agreement and accuracy on the midrange. There's a lot of disagreement now, and a lot of shifts from run to run. Let's see if that's still the case by Friday, or if things begin to coalesce more clearly - whether for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm reminded of what Wes said about a week ago - that once we get past this midweek system, we'll begin to see a lot more model agreement and accuracy on the midrange. There's a lot of disagreement now, and a lot of shifts from run to run. Let's see if that's still the case by Friday, or if things begin to coalesce more clearly - whether for better or worse. I don't remember ever saying that so I must have been very uclear about something I said. there is close to a zero chance of snow with the coming up this weak. the primary is west of us, there is low pressure over the lakes, the secondary tracks almost right over us. The 700 low is west of us There is no blocking that I can see that's why the vort swings north all the way into new england. I have some thoughts on the medium range/the vaunted pattern change but will post them elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 A little wave tries to develop on the cold front early Friday on the NAM. Maybe something to watch. 12zNAM continues that trend it appears...at least to this untrained weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z NAM has nothing ahead of the storm, even for the mountains, but is juicer on the anafrontal moisture Friday (>0.1"). Trick is getting the cold air in place at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z NAM has nothing ahead of the storm, even for the mountains, but is juicer on the anafrontal moisture Friday (>0.1"). Trick is getting the cold air in place at the same time. yeah, that's our proble with that one but the "small" events have overperformed this year, so maybe we all can get an inch out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yeah, that's our proble with that one but the "small" events have overperformed this year, so maybe we all can get an inch out of it The moisture appears to be behind the front, so it might start as rain, but would probably quickly turn to snow. Cold air is racing east at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yeah, that's our proble with that one but the "small" events have overperformed this year, so maybe we all can get an inch out of it my resourceful kids turned yesterday's inch into magic as if it was their last snow ever...they sledded on muddy snow/grass mix and threw snowballs...another quick inch would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 my resourceful kids turned yesterday's inch into magic as if it was their last snow ever...they sledded on muddy snow/grass mix and threw snowballs...another quick inch would be great. so you're hillbillies! j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't remember ever saying that so I must have been very uclear about something I said. there is close to a zero chance of snow with the coming up this weak. the primary is west of us, there is low pressure over the lakes, the secondary tracks almost right over us. The 700 low is west of us There is no blocking that I can see that's why the vort swings north all the way into new england. I have some thoughts on the medium range/the vaunted pattern change but will post them elsewhere. My Wes Spidey senses tell me that means Wes doesn't think much about the pattern change, thinks even less of our snow chances in the medium range, and will be saying as much in his thread for such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm starting to accept the fact that this winter might be an epic-suckfest. After the second month of "the pattern change is just around the corner" I'm starting to lose hope. Just to rub salt in the wound, we didn't see a single flake yesterday in Towson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 so you're hillbillies! j/k I suppose so since we cooked the possum the kids hit with their sleds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 My Wes Spidey senses tell me that means Wes doesn't think much about the pattern change, thinks even less of our snow chances in the medium range, and will be saying as much in his thread for such things. I'm not sure it's go to be historic with the PNA goign negative for awhile. I'm actually more interested in what the pattern change might mean for the PAC W crowd and did a fairly long post on it in the weather and forecasting forum and western forums. I've decided to hold off for the east for while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't remember ever saying that so I must have been very uclear about something I said. there is close to a zero chance of snow with the coming up this weak. the primary is west of us, there is low pressure over the lakes, the secondary tracks almost right over us. The 700 low is west of us There is no blocking that I can see that's why the vort swings north all the way into new england. I have some thoughts on the medium range/the vaunted pattern change but will post them elsewhere. Here's the bit I was quoting you on - but I may have misunderstood you: "I think they are linked together and beyond that storm we might have a chance since the models probably will be very different in handling shortwaves. The atlantic remains troublesome as the blocking remains too far east to do us much good." (Can't get the quote to show properly, so pasted from message http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31389-january-2012-storm-threats-and-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1245489 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm not sure it's go to be historic with the PNA goign negative for awhile. I'm actually more interested in what the pattern change might mean for the PAC W crowd and did a fairly long post on it in the weather and forecasting forum and western forums. I've decided to hold off for the east for while. Read your thoughts on the west on the main, interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here's the bit I was quoting you on - but I may have misunderstood you: "I think they are linked together and beyond that storm we might have a chance since the models probably will be very different in handling shortwaves. The atlantic remains troublesome as the blocking remains too far east to do us much good." (Can't get the quote to show properly, so pasted from message http://www.americanw...ost__p__1245489 I wasn't saying they would agree but that the models probably were handling the shortwaves incorrectly and because of that there might be storm potential down the line. I wasn't saying the the pattern would get more predictable. It's still a nina pattern with a crappy atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wes just PM'd me (thanks btw). He really doesn't want to say this publicly, but he thinks there's a pretty good chance of back to back blizzards Saturday and then on Monday. Said it would revive the season. He also said the 49ers are going to win the Super Bowl, so take all that FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 someone should put a bullet through the head of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wes just PM'd me (thanks btw). He really doesn't want to say this publicly, but he thinks there's a pretty good chance of back to back blizzards Saturday and then on Monday. Said it would revive the season. He also said the 49ers are going to win the Super Bowl, so take all that FWIW. someone should put a bullet through the head of this winter that's weird b/c he PM'd me with the equation that shows the more weenies whine about the weather, the warmer the surface is, and while snow may fall, it can't accumulate. and he said the Pats would win, so salt to taste. x 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wes just PM'd me (thanks btw). He really doesn't want to say this publicly, but he thinks there's a pretty good chance of back to back blizzards Saturday and then on Monday. Said it would revive the season. He also said the 49ers are going to win the Super Bowl, so take all that FWIW. You got it wrong, It was the redskins and storminess in Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So let me make sure I understand this. It will finally snow again when the Redskins win the Super Bowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 that's weird b/c he PM'd me with the equation that shows the more weenies whine about the weather, the warmer the surface is, and while snow may fall, it can't accumulate. and he said the Pats would win, so salt to taste. Hmm, I think Ian hacked his account when that PM was written. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hmm, I think Ian hacked his account when that PM was written. i did predict the pats winning the super bowl at the start of the season. but they might get tebowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i did predict the pats winning the super bowl at the start of the season. but they might get tebowed. Tebowed on a 13.5 point spread seems HIGHLY unlikely Saints vs Pats Saints are gonna be the champs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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