earthlight Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Enjoy. Loop these and check out the developing positive height anomalies near Greenland and the Davis Straight by the end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Enjoy. Loop these and check out the developing positive height anomalies near Greenland and the Davis Straight by the end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html That looks decent but unfortunately the Euro ensembles have nothing of the sort on the Atlantic side...they keep a strong vortex in the Davis Straight. Baffin Island is going to be lifeless by the end of this winter....totally frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Enjoy. Loop these and check out the developing positive height anomalies near Greenland and the Davis Straight by the end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html EC ens get some pos anomalies to the southern tip of Greenland d12-15, but nothing into Baffin Island. At least there seems to be some signs of movement with some of the large scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Days 11-15 are cold on the Euro ENS, brief transient warm up between cold shots, now that's a switch. Surprised no one mentioned it. When it was transient cold we saw tons of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Days 11-15 are cold on the Euro ENS, brief transient warm up between cold shots, now that's a switch. Surprised no one mentioned it. When it was transient cold we saw tons of posts. Did not hear of any mention by the mets on the ensembles today, Actually there is i read a few post back, We shall see if the get inside 10 days and they still show cold and changes out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Days 11-15 are cold on the Euro ENS, brief transient warm up between cold shots, now that's a switch. Surprised no one mentioned it. When it was transient cold we saw tons of posts. Looks like things may finally flip, I dont think we will ever get into a pattern that is all winter all the time like the 6 weeks experieced last winter but Alaska and the Pacific are looking much better, imagine what a little blocking would have done for us next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Did not hear of any mention by the mets on the ensembles today, Actually there is i read a few post back, We shall see if the get inside 10 days and they still show cold Did you miss the previous several posts in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Days 11-15 are cold on the Euro ENS, brief transient warm up between cold shots, now that's a switch. Surprised no one mentioned it. When it was transient cold we saw tons of posts. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X9UZhr5Lwc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Did you miss the previous several posts in this thread? I mentioned in my post that i went back and saw yours and a few others, I did miss them though seeing i am bouncing in and out of 4 threads on here.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I mentioned in my post that i went back and saw yours and a few others, I did miss them though seeing i am bouncing in and out of 4 threads on here.....lol Yeah you edited it right as I was replying. I'm hoping the big changes we see in Alaska will actually become more apparent as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 We might torch again in the Jan 7-10 time frame, but its a bit uncertain right now. The cold shot looks pretty impressive, but its relatively transient...there is more cold that looks like it wants to come down around mid-month, but it also looks like we could have the aformentioned milder period. If its cold next week and warmer for 3 days then cold the next week, how is the cold transient, isn't the warmth transient this go around ENS wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Looks like things may finally flip, I dont think we will ever get into a pattern that is all winter all the time like the 6 weeks experieced last winter but Alaska and the Pacific are looking much better, imagine what a little blocking would have done for us next week http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgYqIvnPvqQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If its cold next week and warmer for 3 days then cold the next week, how is the cold transient, isn't the warmth transient this go around ENS wise? The cold shot would be transient because it only sticks around for 4 days...just because the warmth is transient too doesn't make the cold permanent. If the cold period potentially advertised after the 10th comes true, then that one might be more of a regime shift...more potential to stick around if we are changing the PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah you edited it right as I was replying. I'm hoping the big changes we see in Alaska will actually become more apparent as we get closer. Yeah, I hope your right, This pattern is really starting to eat at a lot of people not just on this board but a couple of others that i am on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Those changes in ak have been shown for a little while now . Hopefully they continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The cold shot would be transient because it only sticks around for 4 days...just because the warmth is transient too doesn't make the cold permanent. If the cold period potentially advertised after the 10th comes true, then that one might be more of a regime shift...more potential to stick around if we are changing the PAC. gotcha, but out of the next 15 per the model we are normal to below for 11, that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Those changes in ak have been shown for a little while now . Hopefully they continue. I thought today was the best they have looked so far in the past 3 days or so. Hopefully by New Years they are getting into the D10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I thought today was the best they have looked so far in the past 3 days or so. Hopefully by New Years they are getting into the D10 range. I didnt see today but I will take your word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I didnt see today but I will take your word. Got to take a break from the I Phone........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Got to take a break from the I Phone........lol 40 mph winds and 20F temps never felt so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 40 mph winds and 20F temps never felt so good. At the folks i see, Not in dorchester......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Enjoy. Loop these and check out the developing positive height anomalies near Greenland and the Davis Straight by the end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html The PAC really breaks down in the long-range, unfortunately, on the GEFS. Nice looking Davis Strait block but a fairly flat Aleutian ridge with a large -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 At the folks i see, Not in dorchester......lol It's not far off though even in Dot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The Euro is damn cold for next Wed into Thu. -24C 850s here with -28C poking into N VT. That's single digit high temps here before the sfc high builds in the following night. Even if the Euro is overdoing it it's going to be damn cold for bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 +24C 850 temp anomalies into the upper Midwest by d8-9. SD/MN with actual 850 temps of +16C. That's awesome in a diabolical way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The Euro is damn cold for next Wed into Thu. -24C 850s here with -28C poking into N VT. That's single digit high temps here before the sfc high builds in the following night. Even if the Euro is overdoing it it's going to be damn cold for bare ground. brutal cold...straight from the nnw. sub-zero lows for most in the interior northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 +24C 850 temp anomalies into the upper Midwest by d8-9. SD/MN with actual 850 temps of +16C. That's awesome in a diabolical way. I even see a small area of +18oC. You could have highs forty degrees above normal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Brutal cold to above normal on the Euro all with no snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Brutal cold to above normal on the Euro all with no snow chances Been obvious for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I thought today was the best they have looked so far in the past 3 days or so. Hopefully by New Years they are getting into the D10 range. I think we are about 2-3 weeks off from some fun.....I buy these changes, but nothing before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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