Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's apparent that people's objectivity is about blown as of late ...due to whatever sentiment surrounding not getting a fix for this insane snow obsession going on around here. But, this is still supposed to be a weather board; it's just unfortunate that snow comes because of the weather I suppose. nyuk nyuk, or should we rather say tsk. Anyway, if anyone cares about Meteorology any more, there is nothing boring about a negatively tilted trough with maximized DPVA riding up through about 12DM of height gradient at 130 hours. That could produce one helluva wind event if this 12z GFS were to verify. And yes ... snow chances are not 0 with that event. It would be a needle threader, sure, but a 1.5 lat/lon farther SE translation of that dynamical package amid this 12z GFS operational run would result in a NJ bomb - fast moving, but a 10 to 15mb deepening in 9 hours type of deal as it flicked by underneath us. Such a scenario would snow. The leading synoptics features a lazy baroclinic axis that slips through and starts draining cold llv thickness S out of NYS-C-NNE, off a 1030mb-type nascent polar high moving past to the N. It is also noted that the GGEM and the Euro were colder runs from 00z. You see .... you have to correct for these things in mind's eye, and if the correction is not impossible, the possibility is naturally still on the table. You can't just have a bad attitude because in your own failings you make the weather your primary mirth/entertainment source, whereby...you auto-dismiss every possibility that comes down the pipeline when it doesn't happen to sync up with the fact that your heads up your ass with negativity. I suppose if your doing that, your just using this as an outlet for venting your personal discontent, so hopefully the reader gets it, and doesn't take your predisposition troll with negative spin as forecasting per se, and moves on in the hope that there are indeed still other possibilities on the table. I was going to draft up one of my week-ender diatribes about the course of thing going forward but ...heh, not sure it is really worth it. I just don't think the reception is going to be there for now. I'd write it up, then there would a blizzard of posts about why there is going to be a torch at mid month, because rather than objectivity there is some kind of queer collective suicide mission going on right now. It's an emergent property, perhaps more indicative of crowd physics more than atmospheric physics. We need a SOciologist! I dunno - maybe later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's apparent that people's objectivity is about blown as of late ...due to whatever sentiment surrounding not getting a fix for this insane snow obsession going on around here. But, this is still supposed to be a weather board; it's just unfortunate that snow comes because of the weather I suppose. nyuk nyuk, or should we rather say tsk. Anyway, if anyone cares about Meteorology any more, there is nothing boring about a negatively tilted trough with maximized DPVA riding up through about 12DM of height gradient at 130 hours. That could produce one helluva wind event if this 12z GFS were to verify. And yes ... snow chances are not 0 with that event. It would be a needle threader, sure, but a 1.5 lat/lon farther SE translation of that dynamical package amid this 12z GFS operational run would result in a NJ bomb - fast moving, but a 10 to 15mb deepening in 9 hours type of deal as it flicked by underneath us. Such a scenario would snow. The leading synoptics features a lazy baroclinic axis that slips through and starts draining cold llv thickness S out of NYS-C-NNE, off a 1030mb-type nascent polar high moving past to the N. It is also noted that the GGEM and the Euro were colder runs from 00z. You see .... you have to correct for these things in mind's eye, and if the correction is not impossible, the possibility is naturally still on the table. You can't just have a bad attitude because in your own failings you make the weather your primary mirth/entertainment source, whereby...you auto-dismiss every possibility that comes down the pipeline when it doesn't happen to sync up with the fact that your heads up your ass with negativity. I suppose if your doing that, your just using this as an outlet for venting your personal discontent, so hopefully the reader gets it, and doesn't take your predisposition troll with negative spin as forecasting per se, and moves on in the hope that there are indeed still other possibilities on the table. I was going to draft up one of my week-ender diatribes about the course of thing going forward but ...heh, not sure it is really worth it. I just don't think the reception is going to be there for now. I'd write it up, then there would a blizzard of posts about why there is going to be a torch at mid month, because rather than objectivity there is some kind of queer collective suicide mission going on right now. It's an emergent property, perhaps more indicative of crowd physics more than atmospheric physics. We need a SOciologist! I dunno - maybe later. lol Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I like that the GFS wants to end with the goalpost highs shifted east so we are closer/are the main area to be hit by the cold thrusts. It's actually pretty encouraging now we have to hope the GFS is rebounding and still not attrocious like the last 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I like that the GFS wants to end with the goalpost highs shifted east so we are closer/are the main area to be hit by the cold thrusts. It's actually pretty encouraging now we have to hope the GFS is rebounding and still not attrocious like the last 10 days. Lets hope this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Really, there is nothing insane about wanting snow cover for five months of the year. And if there is ..then it's a beautiful insanity. lol Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The GEFS continue to insist on keeping the -EPO quite robust through mid-month. Euro really doesn't want any of that. It will be interesting to see which set is more correct. Usually a compromise in favor of the EC ensembles is correct, but a more split compromise or in favor of GEFS would mean a much more robust supply of cold air in the N tier and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I like that the GFS wants to end with the goalpost highs shifted east so we are closer/are the main area to be hit by the cold thrusts. It's actually pretty encouraging now we have to hope the GFS is rebounding and still not attrocious like the last 10 days. A lot of fantasy clippers diving through in the LR this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Toss the gfs I guess ....DT says so *** ALERT *** MODEL DISCUSSION re: 12zGFS at DEC 8 is absurd. HUGE intense lows like that ONLY develop when the pattern supports it... MODELS do not CAUSE big lows to form... and the pattern does NOT support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Toss the gfs I guess ....DT says so *** ALERT *** MODEL DISCUSSION re: 12zGFS at DEC 8 is absurd. HUGE intense lows like that ONLY develop when the pattern supports it... MODELS do not CAUSE big lows to form... and the pattern does NOT support it The UK and Canadian both have significant lows. I'm not sure if it will end up being right but it's not just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Poor Kevin isn't having much luck. I probably have to go out to Hamilton, Ontario over the next week/10 days and I am definitely going to pick the day with the best LES potential..... Take a look at how the KBUF forecast crept. When he was first talking about the lake effect it was looking like temps in the low 30s. By the time that went out the window he mentioned 40. Then it went towards 45-50 and in reality by the time snownh wanted to off Kev last night the forecast temps are 55. 30 to 55 in the course of a week or two...hoping that isn't what happens going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Take a look at how the KBUF forecast crept. When he was first talking about the lake effect it was looking like temps in the low 30s. By the time that went out the window he mentioned 40. Then it went towards 45-50 and in reality by the time snownh wanted to off Kev last night the forecast temps are 55. 30 to 55 in the course of a week or two...hoping that isn't what happens going forward. the cold air intrusion moved forward a few days. I don't think BUF had forecast temps on Sunday to be 32 degrees...I could be wrong though. I always though the Dec. 3rd lake-effect talk was overzealous...it only looked good several days out...the model backed in plenty of time to determine this wasn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The Canadian agrees about pushing the cold front through earlier, but ends up yielding an inerior snowstorm it would appear: Toss the gfs I guess ....DT says so *** ALERT *** MODEL DISCUSSION re: 12zGFS at DEC 8 is absurd. HUGE intense lows like that ONLY develop when the pattern supports it... MODELS do not CAUSE big lows to form... and the pattern does NOT support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's apparent that people's objectivity is about blown as of late ...due to whatever sentiment surrounding not getting a fix for this insane snow obsession going on around here. But, this is still supposed to be a weather board; it's just unfortunate that snow comes because of the weather I suppose. nyuk nyuk, or should we rather say tsk. Anyway, if anyone cares about Meteorology any more, there is nothing boring about a negatively tilted trough with maximized DPVA riding up through about 12DM of height gradient at 130 hours. That could produce one helluva wind event if this 12z GFS were to verify. And yes ... snow chances are not 0 with that event. It would be a needle threader, sure, but a 1.5 lat/lon farther SE translation of that dynamical package amid this 12z GFS operational run would result in a NJ bomb - fast moving, but a 10 to 15mb deepening in 9 hours type of deal as it flicked by underneath us. Such a scenario would snow. The leading synoptics features a lazy baroclinic axis that slips through and starts draining cold llv thickness S out of NYS-C-NNE, off a 1030mb-type nascent polar high moving past to the N. It is also noted that the GGEM and the Euro were colder runs from 00z. You see .... you have to correct for these things in mind's eye, and if the correction is not impossible, the possibility is naturally still on the table. You can't just have a bad attitude because in your own failings you make the weather your primary mirth/entertainment source, whereby...you auto-dismiss every possibility that comes down the pipeline when it doesn't happen to sync up with the fact that your heads up your ass with negativity. I suppose if your doing that, your just using this as an outlet for venting your personal discontent, so hopefully the reader gets it, and doesn't take your predisposition troll with negative spin as forecasting per se, and moves on in the hope that there are indeed still other possibilities on the table. I was going to draft up one of my week-ender diatribes about the course of thing going forward but ...heh, not sure it is really worth it. I just don't think the reception is going to be there for now. I'd write it up, then there would a blizzard of posts about why there is going to be a torch at mid month, because rather than objectivity there is some kind of queer collective suicide mission going on right now. It's an emergent property, perhaps more indicative of crowd physics more than atmospheric physics. We need a SOciologist! I dunno - maybe later. or maybe you need a psychologist? the collective mindset around here is actually born from some fairly intelligent people, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 BUF hasn't even had one decent LES event yet have they? I even managed 1.8" off Lake Ontario a couple weeks ago. the cold air intrusion moved forward a few days. I don't think BUF had forecast temps on Sunday to be 32 degrees...I could be wrong though. I always though the Dec. 3rd lake-effect talk was overzealous...it only looked good several days out...the model backed in plenty of time to determine this wasn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 BUF hasn't even had one decent LES event yet have they? I even managed 1.8" off Lake Ontario a couple weeks ago. nope..we have a grand total of 0.4". Some places in the hills south of Buffalo have received about 7"...still woefully below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Take a look at how the KBUF forecast crept. When he was first talking about the lake effect it was looking like temps in the low 30s. By the time that went out the window he mentioned 40. Then it went towards 45-50 and in reality by the time snownh wanted to off Kev last night the forecast temps are 55. 30 to 55 in the course of a week or two...hoping that isn't what happens going forward. No, I think that Kevin was wish casting 30s, the lowest the forecast temps were was something in the 40s. I think timing just changed a little bit. the cold air intrusion moved forward a few days. I don't think BUF had forecast temps on Sunday to be 32 degrees...I could be wrong though. I always though the Dec. 3rd lake-effect talk was overzealous...it only looked good several days out...the model backed in plenty of time to determine this wasn't going to happen. yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This upcoming torch starting tomorrow is very impressive, departures should easily be around +6 region wide by Thursday, mid to upper 60s for much of sne early week in December with the cooling of climo is just ridunkulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 the cold air intrusion moved forward a few days. I don't think BUF had forecast temps on Sunday to be 32 degrees...I could be wrong though. I always though the Dec. 3rd lake-effect talk was overzealous...it only looked good several days out...the model backed in plenty of time to determine this wasn't going to happen. I don't know about the initial low 30s thing that was model fantasy. BUT the other temps 40 to 49 to 55...that was the NOAA forecast for the area around the stadium as the week went on P&C Just figured it was a good reference point. It mirrors collectively the expectation shift I think from "normal or just below" to "normal" to "torch again" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 At least the gfs shows some normal temps now within range that it will probably actually happen. Day 5/6 both look like upper 30s for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well assuming cold/snow at the Bills game was always gonna be risky. BUF has little elevation, sits next to a still mild lake (nice if there is LES potential) and is susceptible to terrible torches because they are wide open to the Midwest and milder air just sweeps in unimpeded when the wx pattern turns bad. So they get all that snow, but they also lose it all frequently ..only to get it back again..... No, I think that Kevin was wish casting 30s, the lowest the forecast temps were was something in the 40s. I think timing just changed a little bit. yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 That second low can trck anywhere between the Carolinas and Maine. It's a real crap toss. My guess is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 or maybe you need a psychologist? the collective mindset around here is actually born from some fairly intelligent people, imo. I doubt it... Nice try at a redirect Everything I said it entirely true. And I never impugned anyone's intelligence in that. Intelligence and allowing an obsession/overt predilection guide one's "tone" are mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Do the euro ensembles show -EPO ridging returning later in the period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I doubt it... Nice try at a redirect Everything I said it entirely true. And I never impugned anyone's intelligence in that. Intelligence and allowing an obsession/overt predilection guide one's "tone" are mutually exclusive. I really think you totally miss the sardonic modes people get in. Yes there are a great deal of snow freaks on here but we are also have a great deal of understanding and respect for all types of weather related phenomena. Why do you think they call me SOS, or bust Phil up about the weenie mobile/ I am sure all of us are aware how a GFS depicted bombogenesis would affect us with some good dynamical weather. predilections to cold and snow in Dec, well duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I doubt it... Nice try at a redirect Everything I said it entirely true. And I never impugned anyone's intelligence in that. Intelligence and allowing an obsession/overt predilection guide one's "tone" are mutually exclusive. Fair enough. I think sometimes what you might be interpreting as tone though is flat out sarcasm. But sometimes it's not - I think sometimes it's precisely how people are seeing the pattern. Personally, I love the weather...snow, cold, hvy rain, thunder, etc etc...what I hate is prolonged stretches of quiet, monotonous...lather, rinse, repeat...weather. Which is precisely what this is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I really think you totally miss the sardonic modes people get in. Yes there are a great deal of snow freaks on here but we are also have a great deal of understanding and respect for all types of weather related phenomena. Why do you think they call me SOS, or bust Phil up about the weenie mobile/ I am sure all of us are aware how a GFS depicted bombogenesis would affect us with some good dynamical weather. predilections to cold and snow in Dec, well duh. ' Hey Ginx - it's all good. I'm just a guilty as the next guy at times, and I also have my own brand of sardonics - just a tad drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's just all part of the fun John. I agree with Phil in that anything would be a lot better than this mundane pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Fair enough. I think sometimes what you might be interpreting as tone though is flat out sarcasm. But sometimes it's not - I think sometimes it's precisely how people are seeing the pattern. Personally, I love the weather...snow, cold, hvy rain, thunder, etc etc...what I hate is prolonged stretches of quiet, monotonous...lather, rinse, repeat...weather. Which is precisely what this is right now. Oh I know - I'm not as obtuse to the sarcasm as all that ... I do, though, honestly at time wish there was a bit less when someone tries harder to be enlightening - Eh, no one around here is using this site to validate their PHD work so you get what you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Any more boredom for me and it's...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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