ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Nice overnight model runs ..Once past next Wed winter is here. Big hit on the GGEM and to a lesser extend on the Euro Indeed. While everyone has been p*ssing and moaning step by step things are coming into alignment for us. The 00z Euro run was good with the push of cold air focused a little more to the east as well as heights pumping up a bit in the west. By the end of the run it looks like a nice gradient pattern has set up to our south keeping us on the right side. I think our days languishing in the doldrums are going to come to an abrupt and violent end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 eventually...someday...it's going to turn colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 eventually...someday...it's going to turn colder. Nice substanative analysis. I respect your opinion more since you've been red tagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Indeed. While everyone has been p*ssing and moaning step by step things are coming into alignment for us. The 00z Euro run was good with the push of cold air focused a little more to the east as well as heights pumping up a bit in the west. By the end of the run it looks like a nice gradient pattern has set up to our south keeping us on the right side. I think are days languishing in the doldrums are going to come to an abrupt and violent end. Come on, Pete - you know that week 4 of the Euro weaklies (see what I did?) is warm. Winter is over for us. Book your AK trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 eventually...someday...it's going to turn colder. Enjoy the boredom, it's the only boredom you got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Nice substanative analysis. I respect your opinion more since you've been red tagged. so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 eventually...someday...it's going to turn colder. ?? Didn't like the positives overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ?? Didn't like the positives overnight? eh...i don't know what those really were. perhaps the euro ensembles offer something beyond day 10 - i haven't seen those - but i'm guessing based on how they look at day 10...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 eh...i don't know what those really were. perhaps the euro ensembles offer something beyond day 10 - i haven't seen those - but i'm guessing based on how they look at day 10...yikes. Euro ensembles are bad after d10. Heavy heavy warmth on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Come on, Pete - you know that week 4 of the Euro weaklies (see what I did?) is warm. Winter is over for us. Book your AK trip. AK is a short plane ride away at all times. I will bail on you guys for an extended period if things look to be crappy mid Winter. That said, I really don't share all the pessimism. I think we're going to go into a very snowy cold regime before long. Pattern change commences on 12/10, complete by 12/25. If nothing else the AK clan is coming down on the 18th, they are snow charms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Euro ensembles are bad after d10. Heavy heavy warmth on them. HM's torch. But there is also a signal for my bet winner around d5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 eh...i don't know what those really were. perhaps the euro ensembles offer something beyond day 10 - i haven't seen those - but i'm guessing based on how they look at day 10...yikes. I'm glad I'm getting away for a few days. It's depressing in here and probably unhealthy for all of us to subject ourselves to this on a daily basis. Not to mention I'm now afraid for my life at the GTG. next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 HM's torch. But there is also a signal for my bet winner around d5-6. >0.949999" in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm glad I'm getting away for a few days. It's depressing in here and probably unhealthy for all of us to subject ourselves to this on a daily basis. Not to mention I'm now afraid for my life at the GTG. next weekend Well, you won't be dying of seizures at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Still a big difference between the GFS and Euro ensembles, but I don't see why the EC ensembles would be more wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm glad I'm getting away for a few days. It's depressing in here and probably unhealthy for all of us to subject ourselves to this on a daily basis. Not to mention I'm now afraid for my life at the GTG. next weekend Where are you going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm glad I'm getting away for a few days. It's depressing in here and probably unhealthy for all of us to subject ourselves to this on a daily basis. Not to mention I'm now afraid for my life at the GTG. next weekend Heavy, heavy dry heaves in the car on the way home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Where are you going? Nevermind...BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm still keeping an eye out on that sw late next week. Maybe we can sneak something in there. I'm an optimist pulling for some good stuff but I am just not seeing right now. When I feel it let the juju flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm still keeping an eye out on that sw late next week. Maybe we can sneak something in there. I'm an optimist pulling for some good stuff but I am just not seeing right now. When I feel it let the juju flow. I'm worried it will come through before the warm air departs...Hopefully it's timing will be decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm still keeping an eye out on that sw late next week. Maybe we can sneak something in there. I'm an optimist pulling for some good stuff but I am just not seeing right now. When I feel it let the juju flow. Yeah I'm still pulling for something later next week into the following week, before it gets warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm worried it will come through before the warm air departs...Hopefully it's timing will be decent That never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 IS there a new model or set of ensembles called the PDA? DT was talking about it and said they've outperformed the Euro weeklies..and they are not warm past day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 IS there a new model or set of ensembles called the PDA? DT was talking about it and said they've outperformed the Euro enesembles..and they are not warm past day 10 Never heard of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 IS there a new model or set of ensembles called the PDA? DT was talking about it and said they've outperformed the Euro enesembles..and they are not warm past day 10 Maybe the experimental PSD which is an ncep product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here it is I guess we need to ride the PSD What is the PSD? As many of us know the Operational GFS past 180 hrs is NOT very good. The Model resolution shifts (truncation) . The GFS ensemble (GEFS) helps but the GEFS have the same problems the op GFS has. The PSD version of the GFS is an UPGRADED version of the old MRF from 1998 BUT…. with all the Model biases and corrections. The PSD — aka “reforecast “ model is an ensemble of 16 members and it been shown have significantly better skill than the op-GFS and somewhat better skill than the GEFS in the 6-10 day and 11-15 day. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast/ There is not much doubt that much of the country eastern Rockies will turn pretty cold next week and once the cold front cross of the East Coast on December 7 it will turn cold there for at least a few days. However the operational European model completely breaks down the West Coast ridge DEC 11-12… which ends up shutting off the supply of cold air into the central and eastern CONUS. The 12z operational GFS is a little better and slower with a delay of the strong rage on the West Coast but it also a clearly appears to be weakening. However if we take a look at the PSD ensemble we see a very different solution. The PSD at 240 is depicting a much stronger ridge along the West coast of North America with a strong flow of cold or even arctic air into a good portion of the central and eastern CONSU : The PSD is a cold looking map. If we look further out in time…. I can tell you that the 12z European ensemble at day 15 is not a good looking map if you want cold temperatures and were possible winter storms for the central and / or eastern CONUS. The model shows the entire pattern or flow going flat and zonal with no ridge on the West Coast or the eastern Pacific… no supply of cold air into any portion of the central or eastern U.S. and mild Pacific air overrunning most the country. Again however the PSD model is significantly different and shows a very strong ridge e covering the West coast of North America with a strong flow of cold war even arctic air into a central and eastern CONUS. I do not know which of these models / solution is or will be correct. But I can ell you that the PSD reforecast model has been doing pretty good and it’s been doing better than the European weeklies in some respects. Clearly however that can be no compromise between these two models as they are showing diametrically opposing solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GEFS is certainly better than the Euro ensembles. The latter are an absolute SnowNH. The GEFS would probably offer us some type of wintry/overrunning opportunity with near avg temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm still keeping an eye out on that sw late next week. Maybe we can sneak something in there. I'm an optimist pulling for some good stuff but I am just not seeing right now. When I feel it let the juju flow. Waiting until the 4th quarter to pick a winner isn't juju.It's cheating. You have to put your jujus up on the table and make things happen.That's true juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GEFS is certainly better than the Euro ensembles. The latter are an absolute SnowNH. The GEFS would probably offer us some type of wintry/overrunning opportunity with near avg temps. Yeah even a compromise would be good. You probably could put more weight on the euro ensembles, but account for some GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here it is I guess we need to ride the PSD What is the PSD? As many of us know the Operational GFS past 180 hrs is NOT very good. The Model resolution shifts (truncation) . The GFS ensemble (GEFS) helps but the GEFS have the same problems the op GFS has. The PSD version of the GFS is an UPGRADED version of the old MRF from 1998 BUT…. with all the Model biases and corrections. The PSD — aka “reforecast “ model is an ensemble of 16 members and it been shown have significantly better skill than the op-GFS and somewhat better skill than the GEFS in the 6-10 day and 11-15 day. http://www.esrl.noaa...sts/reforecast/ There is not much doubt that much of the country eastern Rockies will turn pretty cold next week and once the cold front cross of the East Coast on December 7 it will turn cold there for at least a few days. However the operational European model completely breaks down the West Coast ridge DEC 11-12… which ends up shutting off the supply of cold air into the central and eastern CONUS. The 12z operational GFS is a little better and slower with a delay of the strong rage on the West Coast but it also a clearly appears to be weakening. However if we take a look at the PSD ensemble we see a very different solution. The PSD at 240 is depicting a much stronger ridge along the West coast of North America with a strong flow of cold or even arctic air into a good portion of the central and eastern CONSU : The PSD is a cold looking map. If we look further out in time…. I can tell you that the 12z European ensemble at day 15 is not a good looking map if you want cold temperatures and were possible winter storms for the central and / or eastern CONUS. The model shows the entire pattern or flow going flat and zonal with no ridge on the West Coast or the eastern Pacific… no supply of cold air into any portion of the central or eastern U.S. and mild Pacific air overrunning most the country. Again however the PSD model is significantly different and shows a very strong ridge e covering the West coast of North America with a strong flow of cold war even arctic air into a central and eastern CONUS. I do not know which of these models / solution is or will be correct. But I can ell you that the PSD reforecast model has been doing pretty good and it’s been doing better than the European weeklies in some respects. Clearly however that can be no compromise between these two models as they are showing diametrically opposing solutions Well no kidding an ensemble is better than the weeklies. These reforecast ensembles are based off the GFS..but take into account the biases from what I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.